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Kimi would be #1 driver ahead of Massa, barring some sort of miracle performance from Felipe next year. I'm sure 99% of tenthers would agree that Kimi is the greater talent. As for McLaren, the biggest deciding factor may be JPM's performance next year - if he's stunning they may choose to bring a young driver (one of the Mercedes-backed guys like Premat, Hamilton or Green) in to learn from him. Otherwise they might bring in a big name.
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