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Up until now, the ACO's attempts to get the top class back even close to lapping at 3:30 or slower around Le Mans failed, each one of them.
2009 wing span reduction and air restrictor adjustments, failed. In '09 the cars were faster than in 2007 (first time 3:30 was broken in a race) and '10 gave us the distance record and fastest Le Mans.
2011 engine downsizing, failed. Cars were lapping as fast or faster than 2009. And don't get started on the 2014-20 regs that produced the fastest LMP1 cars ever.
The fact that the fin is still there (the ACO adopted it because of other failed attempts to slow the cars down/keep them from flipping over in high speed spins) shows that the ACO have faith in it. The fact that it's smaller means that either the ACO are hoping that adding 200kg to the top class minimum weight will help keep the cars on the ground by reducing max cornering speeds or just that something heavier will take more force to be lifted, or they're taking advantage of that to address fan criticism (ie, chicken or egg, intent or side-effect).
The one aero kit having to be somewhat universal also IMO for sure--directly or indirectly--addresses the appearance factor even more. At least the GR010 doesn't have the bulbous front fenders that a lot of LM aero kits adopted. nor the Lister Storm LMP type front fenders that the early TS040 had.
But what does this mean for performance? Toyota are claiming that around Le Mans (I read this either from Sportscar 365 or a Road and Track online article) the GR010 should be, on their estimates, be about 10 seconds a lap slower. If we're talking compared to race trim this year, that's close to the ACO's long desired/obsessed over 3:30. If we're talking qualifying--and I also tend to think that the newer cars can lap closer to their qualifying times in race trim due to no lift and coast--we're talking current LMP2 pace, which that's well above 3:30 even, especially with pro drivers in the cars.
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