|
My following opinions about who can and who cannot be reasonable contenders for the title are just based on the current points gap and the number of races to go. It let us to calculate the "one race gap" statistic
that measure the "statistical" difficulty of overcome a gap. It also reflects relatively well my subjective opinion about the situation.
MotoGP:
There appear to be just two contenders and, very, very marginally other two who could become contenders
(Bastia and Zarko). They, B & Z, to become merely minor contenders, would have to have an excellent result in the next race AND Quartararo a disastrous one, .
On the other hand, a bad result of Espargaro against Quartararo in Sachs would leave us without any challenger against Fabio.
A combinatory calculation shows that Aleix surpassing Fabio at the end of the season has currently a probability of approx 21%.
Moto2:
Three contenders in this category, and some others that could recover that status in the next race, particularly A.Fernandez and Arbolino. If those two do a good race against Vietti, they will be again pretenders to the title. Even Roberts could do it, but I am less sure abut this.
Ogura is pretty solid as contender, except if he has a dismal day in the German race. The other challenger, Canet, is in danger of being left out if he has a bad race against the leader Vietti.
Combinatory probabilities tell us that Ogura has a probability of 35% to surpass Vietti at the end of the season, while Canet has a 29%
Moto3:
Only two real contenders for the title. However, Masia and Foggia have some minor options to go back to become contenders if they have a great race against a dismal race for Garcia.
Meanwhile, Guevara has to avoid a disaster in Germany because it would throw him out of the picture, leaving us with virtually an one horse race for the title. In this time of the season a disastrous race can be determinant.
Combinations shows us that Guevara has approx a 36% chance to overcome Garc?*a.
The events in the last races have considerably brought down the number of reasonable contenders for the titles. If it continues that way, we could have a very boring end of the season (title-wise). It is difficult to believe in Moto3, though.
Sachsenring is such a peculiar track that I hope it can throw us one or two surprises {wishful thinking}.
|