Based on RL17 feedback. Instead of expressing the relative pace as a %, it is expressed as difference in lap time at Le Mans. Assuming a 210s nominal lap time.
Manufacturer | Relative pace (s) | kg change | New relative pace (s) |
Ferrari | 0 | +24 | 0 |
Toyota | +0.4 | +37 | +0.9 |
Cadillac | +1.6 | +11 | +1.2 |
Porsche | +2.9 | +3 | +2.2 |
Peugeot | +3.6 | 0 | +2.8 |
Glickenhaus | +4.3 | 0 | +3.5 |
Vanwall | +8.4 | 0 | +7.6 |
Still lots of assumptions and ultimately it is a simple model, but it doesn't look completely stupid. Remember this is based on Top 50 lap time performance. My guess on this is that Toyota will do better in Q - if only because they will manage their tyres better. Also I would expect Vanwall to be closer to Glickenhaus - the start point of this is Spa and they didn't have that many laps to get the best Top 50 they could have. So should do better if they get, say 100 laps at Le Mans.