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As a sort of complement, I include graphs of the changes in those probabilities across the first four races.
Riders represented: (colors are approx the bike color)
1st MotoGP: BAG, QUA, VIN, MIR, ZAR
2nd Moto2: GAR, LOW, FER, BEZ, DiG
3rd Moto3: ACO, MAS, BIN, ANT
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