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Despite the promises of Government largesse to keep businesses operating it seems unlikely that the support will reach many of those who offer the best return from the investment.
Chatting to my next door neighbour yesterday he mentioned a very savvy relative of his in his native Lancashire. She has never done a days work in her life but is an expert at claiming every possible handout going for her and her family. She has, ho told me, the ability and quickwittedness to dominate any one in order to get her position to the prime position.
She and her family are doing very well at the moment, he told me.
On the other hand I was told about a successful business person with a very significant stack of cash in his business bank account who has taken advantage of the furlough scheme to furlough direct family members who are employed by the company. As I understand it there are also other claims that he wondered about relating to his personal loss of earnings where daily claims for a few pounds might be made.
Meanwhile there is the plumber with his own limited company and drawing the usual maximum amount each month then taking dividends to top up earning. Not a wealthy person by any means. Indeed the opposite.
Caught the virus and just out of 2 weeks or so in ICU. Obviously not able to work for a while as he's not fit enough apart from anything else. His wife's income has also stopped. He does not qualify for the support payments partly due to the fact that he only took the low "wage" from the business and dividends don't count.
There are many many people in a similar situation. Maybe a couple of million businesses.
Plenty of people who will lose not only their businesses but their homes as well putting further strain on the rest of the system. Also down stream employment for suppliers as well as upstream challenges for consumers in some cases for some supplies and services.
Businesses and suppliers that cater for basic needs - Food, Accommodation and some aspects of "security" - will likely survive if they play the game the right way. They may even prosper.
The "Leisure" and travel industry must be on shaky ground. It seems likely that the number of people around with significant amounts (or indeed any amount) of spare discretionary spending capacity will be much smaller than it has been for a while and, once the taxes to pay for the largess hit the street, smaller than might be required to maintain business as usual.
Beyond that the global effects of the virus problem seem likely to rumble on for a year or two at best. Perhaps much longer.
On that basis pumping money into airlines and everything that supports them may be the single worst investment a government could make. (Although there could be many similar examples.)
Pubs, Restaurants and Cafes, even if allowed to re-open, are likely doomed. If all of them are forced to operate with social distancing rules for an extended period they are mostly unlikely to be economically viable even if they hike the prices to compensate for the constrained capacity. Even that assume that they will find customers who can afford the higher prices and feel comfortable justifying them.
How thin is the veneer of civilization?
How likely is it that decisions taken result in winning the war (against the virus) but losing the peace?
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