Updating my "maniac" calculations after Catalunya.
I try to watch every practice, qualy and race in the 3 cats (even qualy and races of Moto E!) . With so many things to watch , I usually end watching the races on Wednesday! That the reason I can not enter here until late in the week. I watch everything delayed, I prefer to be able to pause or replay the video as I want.
Code:
Moto 3
Gap LRG
HOL 0 contender
SAS 13 4.3 contender
MAS 32 10.7 contender?
ONC 33 11.0 contender?
ORT 37 12.3 contender?
ALO 46 15.3 alive
MOR 67 22.3 alive
RUE 80 26.7 out
Moto 2
Gap LRG
ACO 0 0 contender
ARB 22 7.3 contender
DIX 44 14.7 alive
CAN 70 23.3 alive
LOP 86 28.7 out
MotoGP
Gap LRG
BAG 0 0 contender
JMAR 50 15.7 alive
BEZ 71 22.3 alive
BIN 94 29.5 out
Just a few notes:
Moto3: Masia, Oncu and Ortola theoretically can become full-fledged contenders if they are a in front of Holgado in the next race. Moreira will be "probabilistically" out if he is behind Holgado.
Moto2: Arbolino could lose his position as contender if he loses more than 7 points to Acosta in the next race. Canet will be out if he is behind Acosta in the next race.
MotoGP: A priori, nobody is a true contender against Pecco but the current situation could change this... Bezzechi risks being out if he lost 9 points to Bagnaia in the next weekend... but who knows if it is even possible.
("Contender" would be someone with >10% of chance to overtake the leader in points.
"Out" would be someone with <1% of chance to overtake the leader in points. Always in approximate terms.)