Updating the analysis after Austria. The first number is the points' gap, the second one is the ORG (as explained in the first post). The interesting values of ORG are 10 and 25; an ORG l< 10 implies a probability of more than (approximately) 10% of probability of overtaking the leader rider. And ORG > 25 means less than (approximately) 1% of overtaking the leader.
Code:
Mo3:
DLP 155
CAN 1 0.4 contender
ARB 42 14.8 unlikely
ANT 50 17.7 unlikely
RAM 66 23.3 unlikely
MCP 71 25.1 out
Mo2:
MAQ 181
LUT 43 15.2 unlikley
NAV 55 19.4 unlikely
FER 60 21.2 unlikely
BAL 66 23.3 unlikely
SCH 67 23.7 unlikely
BIN 72 25.5 out
MAR 80 28.3 out
MGP:
MAR 230
DOV 58 20.5 unlikely
PET 94 33.2 out
Conclusions:
In Moto3, Arbolino and Antonelli could go back to be contender if they have an excellent result in the next race against Dalla Porta and Canet.
In Moto2, Marquez is the only rider contending for the title, in realistic terms. But Luthi could be again a contender if he gets a very good result against Marquez in Silverstone.
Marc Marquez is the only rider with real chance for the title in MotoGP. Nobody is remotely near to be considered a "contender". Dovizioso is the only rider with some probability to fight Marquez; but, even him could be thrown into the out of the championship category if he has a mediocre day in Silverstone's race.