[LM24] Le Mans 2013 - Informal Predictions

[Simmi]

So with the lack of a dedicated predictions thread this year I thought maybe we could use a thread to discuss how we think the race is going to play out.

There's been a lot of back and forth deliberation in the Audi and Toyota threads but it's hard to see the wood from the trees sometimes in there. And there are also four classes to the race and countless sub-plots to be discussed.

This is just a bit of a mind dump about how I think it will play out and some of my thoughts/questions.

- The big intrigue for me is still P1 and how Toyota and Audi will stack up in a race rhythm. Toyota might be able to go longer and we could have Audi in a hare role we're not always used to. The only problem with Toyota eeking out laps is it relies on the car being there at the finish.

I think the lack of a third car will bite Toyota but that said, do I see both TS030's making it the 24 hours? I don't think I do.

I'm tempted to say it'll be an Audi sweep - but I'm going to believe this year and say we might just get that Rebellion on the podium.


- P2.
I tried to pick out a few top cars but to be honest it's so open that I really don't know where to start. All the line-ups have their downfalls - be it inexperience, rash driving, slower AM guys or just bad luck at La Sarthe. You can't really look at the class in terms of which trio has the most raw pace. There is still always that element of survival. I just hope we see some of the good racing that has been showcased in the ELMS. Will the Michelin-shod teams have an advantage?


- GT - Specifically can Aston do it? Can Corvette be as bad as they were last year? Surely not. Will the AF Corse line-ups and car be able to compete in 2013 spec. I'm really hoping the Vipers can put on a show but again I'm not sure we'll see them on Sunday. Hope I'm wrong. Either way it will be the biggest GT fight of the year.

That's just a few bits and pieces. There's so much more. Will we see these mooted epic laptimes on a par with a few years ago? Will the GreenGT show up etc.

[GT6]

I have a feeling that the Toyota's will last the distance whilst the Audi's will suffer due to the development of the engine this year, but I do thing that at with 3 cars the Audi success will continue.
In the GT classes the astons will be hard to beat this year but just may be the newer cars (vipers, ferrari's and porsches) will put up a fight but can't see where the corvettes will be able to mix it up this year

[eps]

P1 I just hope Toyota can make a decent go of it. I don't think Audi will do a 1-2-3, but they could do a 1-2. The number 1 car must be feeling in good shape going to La Sarthe, but the number 2 boys will want to get another win in, so at least they'll be racing each other for most of it..! Hopefully Toyota can get a 3rd place podium to help them springboard next year.. Otherwise a Rebellion!

P2 - I reckon the Greaves number 41 will do well. I think they've had good running on Dunlops, so hopefully should outpace the Michelin runners, but I haven't kept too close an eye on P2.. ETA : and the 24 OAK Racing entry.

GT Pro - Corvette should be better this year, but the Ferraris do have great driver line-ups. Although Aston Martin look serious about this..! So I'll go Aston Martin.

GT Am - Aston Martin for me, great driver line ups in this category.

Either way in GT, I do think there will be some great battles and a lot of ebbing and flowing throughout the 24hrs....! It should be epic!

[Beetle]

P1: It is, and will always be (unless Audi pulls a Peugeot), hard to stop the Audi winning machine. It's hard to put anything against them, and the odds definitely stack up in their favor. A Toyota has still yet to complete anything over 6 hours. Testing, yes. Racing? No. And, going along with the somewhat overused, but no less valid Le Mans stereotype, weird things seem to happen to cars at Le Mans that don't happen anywhere else. Perhaps it's the 24 hours of wear and tear? Perhaps the speed of the track? Or the number of cars? Whatever the case, I think there is a fair chance that both Toyota's will be out before the break of dawn on Sunday. For me, Audi undoubtedly has the favorable odds and the history. It's hard to put your eggs in anyone else's basket. As far as privateers go, I'd bet $100,000 (if I had it laying around) that Rebellion will end up beating Strakka in qualifying and at the finish. Sorry, Strakka.

P2: Now, P2 will be a lot more interesting, for sure. Going through the teams, from #24 to #49, there are a few standouts of potential winners and potential losers. First of all, OAK Racing has an extraordinary lineup with the one exception of the #45 car. Heinemeier-Hansson has a tendency to throw the car around a bit and I think that may cost the #24 in the race. You can never overlook Delta-ADR or G-Drive (same thing, really), but even though Pizzonia has pretty much proved that he isn't as much of a wrecking ball as people originally thought, I still can't get that thought out of my head. Shinji Nakano definitely will bring down the pace of the #25 car a bit, as will Tor Graves. With all of that in mind, the #26 car has the distinct advantage over the #25. Gulf Racing Middle East will be a backmarker and probably won't make it to Sunday. Same goes for HVM-Status GP. No offense to Tony Burgess, but he will be the sole cause of that car's destruction. Kevin Weeda will be driving like a senior citizen, as usual, and the Lotus T128 is still very much an "in progress" car. Level 5 could be a "sleeper" but they wouldn't be at the top of my list. Race Performance will most likely be a bit off the pace but the added benefits of Bleekemolen most likely will grant that car a bit more speed and consistency. The #36 car... another sleeper for the win. Decent team, decent drivers, not extraordinarily fast, but if they play the strategies right, they could be in the front gaggle on Sunday afternoon. Jota is in the same position as Level 5, in my eyes. They have a "Scott Tucker", Simon Dolan, a "Ryan Briscoe", Oliver Turvey, and a middle man like Marino Franchitti, Lucas Luhr. Another sleeper for the win, but Oliver Turvey will undoubtedly be one of the fastest on the track. DKR Engineering has no chance, and neither does Boutsen Ginion. Greaves Motorsport has been a bit off the pace this year but I think the driver lineup serves them well, especially in the #42 car. Morand Racing, Thiriet, KCMG, and Murphy Prototypes... all superbly quick in the right hands (Lombard, Martin, Imperatori, and Hartley) but definitely not at the top of my list. Finally, there is no question that Pecom will be up at the front as long as they don't run into trouble. I'll have to do a bit more thinking and analyzing on the matter, but I haven't the faintest clue at who will come out on top.

GT: We will definitely see the Vipers on Sunday! And that's not just because I'm biased! Yes, the #93 Viper has encountered some issues recently (like being run into the wall at Long Beach and mechanical issues at Sebring and Laguna Seca), but the #91 (which will be the #53 at Le Mans) has escaped pretty much unscathed. Sebring was pretty much as good as they could hope for. They survived Long Beach (albeit with brakes down to nothing) and were close to winning at Laguna Seca. Brakes may be an issue at Le Mans, but the Vipers, especially the #53, stand just as good of a chance as the Corvettes at winning Le Mans. AF Corse will always be in the mix, but it really comes down to who the #51 "mystery man" turns out to be. If it's Malucelli, than I'll have some doubts about the #51. The #71 should be very quick this year and will most likely be out near the front the whole race. The Aston Martin's are undoubtedly the favorites to win this year. They don't have any "perfect" cars (Dumbreck, Dalla Lana, and Bell are the "weak links" for the #97, #98, and #99 respectively), but you can hardly call Rob Bell or Peter Dumbreck "weak links". However, they simply are quite up to pace of, say, Darren Turner, Fred Makowiecki, or Pedro Lamy. In GTE Am, it should be a battle royale between the #50 Corvette, the two Aston's, the #61 Ferrari and the #81 Ferrari. Kristian Poulsen and Ricky Taylor will probably do a bit of lawn mowing, but that's GTE Am for ya. My picks? Well, that'll be revealed in joeb's prediction competition.

Should be a good race.

[TF110]

http://tentenths.com/forum/showpost....postcount=5617The Toyota only failed at Spa due to improper install of the hybrid system... the system was fixed easily. The brakes being overheated caused them to fail, that would have taken too long to fix.

I don't know who will win, but I do know it will be close. As far as GTE goes, don't forget about the Viper! I really expect them to be at the front.

[Beetle]

Originally Posted by TF110

http://tentenths.com/forum/showpost....postcount=5617The Toyota only failed at Spa due to improper install of the hybrid system... the system was fixed easily. The brakes being overheated caused them to fail, that would have taken too long to fix.

I don't know who will win, but I do know it will be close. As far as GTE goes, don't forget about the Viper! I really expect them to be at the front.

Before I even clicked onto this thread I saw the username TF110 as the most recent poster. I knew there'd be some Toyota propaganda! :P

I've also got a question for anyone who can answer. Actually, two. The first one: I've noticed at Spa and Silverstone the official qualifying documents seem to show an average of only 2 drivers. Is this simply because of the fact that a few cars (like the #51 Ferrari) only have 2 drivers racing? Otherwise I see no reason - averaging is averaging, so even if you add a third driver it won't put 2-driver cars at an advantage OR disadvantage. What will be the system at Le Mans? 3 driver averaged, I'm assuming?

The other question: does this article ( http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/106828 ) still stand? How is the new track layout going to look?

[Mike E]

I think it has been mentioned a couple of times that the stupid average times thing won't be used at LM.
And the hairpin recreation is just that. A bit of fun, not on the circuit. If that's what you were asking.

[TF110]

Originally Posted by Beetle

Before I even clicked onto this thread I saw the username TF110 as the most recent poster. I knew there'd be some Toyota propaganda! :P

I've also got a question for anyone who can answer. Actually, two. The first one: I've noticed at Spa and Silverstone the official qualifying documents seem to show an average of only 2 drivers. Is this simply because of the fact that a few cars (like the #51 Ferrari) only have 2 drivers racing? Otherwise I see no reason - averaging is averaging, so even if you add a third driver it won't put 2-driver cars at an advantage OR disadvantage. What will be the system at Le Mans? 3 driver averaged, I'm assuming?

The other question: does this article ( http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/106828 ) still stand? How is the new track layout going to look?

Just giving the info out here since theres concerns of their reliability I think theyll be fine. And the rules on bop are still up in the air. That might help, Rebellion more than likely the biggest beneficiary.

[Simmi]

Yeah thank god the qualifying rule hasn''t been carried over to Le Mans. The average might actually have worked better over a longer period and you could have brought all three drivers in, but I'd rather just have one big dogfight.

[wewantourdarbyback]

Originally Posted by Beetle

The other question: does this article ( http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/106828 ) still stand? How is the new track layout going to look?

That is just a recreation in the town where the old Pontlieue hairpin used to be, the track will still follow the same route.

[CTD]

Originally Posted by wewantourdarbyback

That is just a recreation in the town where the old Pontlieue hairpin used to be, the track will still follow the same route.

Google Maps Le Mans Rute
An aproximate of the likely route they will drive. (with an error because of Google Maps)

[vincegail]

Will they drive it? I thought the ACO will just dress up the Pontlieu Hairpin in 1923 style, with the 'cars of the decades' on display?

[CTD]

I understood that they would do a parade through the old track!?

[Victor_RO]

Originally Posted by vincegail

Will they drive it? I thought the ACO will just dress up the Pontlieu Hairpin in 1923 style, with the 'cars of the decades' on display?

I thought those cars would be on display on Friday between the pitlane exit and the Dunlop Bridge? And doing demo laps while our meeting is going on on Saturday?

[vincegail]

Originally Posted by Victor_RO

I thought those cars would be on display on Friday between the pitlane exit and the Dunlop Bridge? And doing demo laps while our meeting is going on on Saturday?

Yes. And Yes.
http://www.24h-lemans.com/en/news/24...on-_10560.html

And on tuesday evening the following:
Tuesday 18th June
Return to 1923!

In partnership with the town of Le Mans, the Pontlieue hairpin, which brought the race into the centre of the town, will be recreated exactly as it was with the advertising hoardings of the era, fencing, footbridge, etc, including the café that still exists redecorated in the 20s’ style! Cars from the epoch will use a small circuit to round this famous corner! A ‘guinguette’ will also be recreated in the courtyard of the Mauboussin school adjacent to the corner with a ball, music, entertainment and period clothing.

The evening will be open to the public and this exceptional reconstitution will be on show throughout the 2013 Le Mans 24-Hours week.

But maybe we're going Off Topic slightly, I reckon.

[Aysedasi]

Indeed so....

[Beetle]

Originally Posted by Simmi

Yeah thank god the qualifying rule hasn''t been carried over to Le Mans. The average might actually have worked better over a longer period and you could have brought all three drivers in, but I'd rather just have one big dogfight.

Me too. Sorry I led everyone off topic.

[Simmi]

Interesting BoP news ahead of the race.

The Astons obviously showed their hand too much and will be +10kg for the race.

Meanwhile Porsche get a restrictor break. Should anger a few but bring them all closer together for us.

http://auto-racing.speedtv.com/artic...gte-announced/

[Mike E]

Originally Posted by Simmi

Interesting BoP news ahead of the race.

The Astons obviously showed their hand too much and will be +10kg for the race.

Meanwhile Porsche get a restrictor break. Should anger a few but bring them all closer together for us.

http://auto-racing.speedtv.com/artic...gte-announced/

That article states a restrictor increase for the Porsches of 0.3mm. Presumably that should be 3mm?

[Victor_RO]

Originally Posted by Mike E

That article states a restrictor increase for the Porsches of 0.3mm. Presumably that should be 3mm?

No, 0.3 mm is correct, restrictors are measured in mm and for 4-4.5 liters they are somewhere in the 28-29 mm range. 3mm would be a gigantic increase.

[wewantourdarbyback]

Over 10% in fact.

[Beetle]

Originally Posted by Simmi

Interesting BoP news ahead of the race.

The Astons obviously showed their hand too much and will be +10kg for the race.

Meanwhile Porsche get a restrictor break. Should anger a few but bring them all closer together for us.

http://auto-racing.speedtv.com/artic...gte-announced/

All of this is good news. Even I, as an avid Aston Martin fan, am actually pleased to see this. I was expecting a runaway and no one wants that...

Nice to hear that the Porsches may be in the mix of things as well. Great to hear they've got some of their power back! That will help immensely down the Mulsanne Straight.

[whitemr2]

it looks like Toyota's odds are getting better with new last minutes regulations, fair or not, I'm hoping for a good 'fight'
http://www.24h-lemans.com/en/news/ad...746_10732.html

[nasdriv87]

Originally Posted by Beetle

All of this is good news. Even I, as an avid Aston Martin fan, am actually pleased to see this. I was expecting a runaway and no one wants that...

Nice to hear that the Porsches may be in the mix of things as well. Great to hear they've got some of their power back! That will help immensely down the Mulsanne Straight.

and why they not Bopped F-458 too?!?!??! Aston was pretty fast, but what about Maranello cars?!?!?

[Muppetdave901]

My prediction... It'll rain.