Who will win a race this season?

Chatters · 19 Mar 2012, 12:30 (Ref:3044593)

Just a thought I had that I wanted to share with you guys. If Melbourne is anything to go by I think we could potentially have up to 8 guys with a small chance of winning a race this year, which to me is an absolutely brilliant prospect.

My list:

Vettel
Webber
Hamilton
Button
Alonso
Schumacher
Rosberg
Raikkonen

Your thoughts?

ECW Dan Selby · 19 Mar 2012, 12:31 (Ref:3044596)

8! That's quite ambitious

I'll take your top 5!
Vettel
Webber
Hamilton
Button
Alonso

Selby

stripedcat · 19 Mar 2012, 12:39 (Ref:3044600)

Yeah, I have to agree that 8 is a bit ambitious. As much as I would like to see some new winners, I do think that we are only going to see the old faces on the of step of the podium.

I do think it is going to be a Red Bull/McLaren battle with Ferrari coming in third. I think that Ferrari are only going to be strong about mid season.

It is just going to be the same 5 guys again.

ECW Dan Selby · 19 Mar 2012, 13:31 (Ref:3044629)

Totally agree. I really want to see more, but it's kind of gone back to the McLaren/Ferrari days of only 2 cars capable of winning a straight forward race.

Selby

**Born Racer** · 19 Mar 2012, 13:51 (Ref:3044644)

Red Bull
Ferrari (how can you ever discount Fernando Alonso?)
Mercedes

ECW Dan Selby · 19 Mar 2012, 14:02 (Ref:3044651)

I have this horrible feeling we will fail to see the Mercedes live up to expectations. I think we'll see a fair few podiums, but I just can't envision either Rosberg or Schumacher picking up a victory (as much as I want them to).

Selby

**Born Racer** · 19 Mar 2012, 14:06 (Ref:3044654)

I really like Rosberg, but I don't think he's very good at the wheel-to-wheel stuff.

p-matt · 19 Mar 2012, 14:12 (Ref:3044657)

Agree, I can't see Mercedes win a race this year based on its shambolic race form. Nor can I see Ferrari win a race. I don't think Webber will win at all this year either. Lotus is a bit of an unknown race pace wise but I still think Kimi will win at Spa! I'm saying 4 winners then: Button, Vettel, Hamilton and Kimi

ECW Dan Selby · 19 Mar 2012, 15:00 (Ref:3044687)

Ohhhhh good point, can't WAIT to see Kimi drive that batter off that thing round Spa!

Selby

Marbot · 19 Mar 2012, 16:15 (Ref:3044719)

Teams that could.

1.Mclaren
2.Red Bull
3.Ferrari
4.Mercedes
5.Lotus
6.Williams

Drivers that could.

1.Button
2.Hamilton
3.Vettel
4.Webber
5.Alonso
6.Schumacher
7.Rosberg
8.Raikkonen.

pauln · 19 Mar 2012, 16:18 (Ref:3044720)

So which Williams driver do you think could win - or is it whichever one happens to be in the right place at the right time?

Marbot · 19 Mar 2012, 16:21 (Ref:3044724)

Quote:

Originally Posted by pauln

So which Williams driver do you think could win - or is it whichever one happens to be in the right place at the right time?

Maybe it's that I think that Williams should win, but that their drivers are unlikely to.

steve nielsen · 19 Mar 2012, 16:27 (Ref:3044729)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marbot

Maybe it's that I think that Williams should win, but that their drivers are unlikely to.

maybe if they replaced one of their drivers with their more talented testdriver??

pauln · 19 Mar 2012, 16:27 (Ref:3044730)

Fair point. Well made.

barnettracing · 19 Mar 2012, 17:27 (Ref:3044757)

Quote:

Originally Posted by p-matt

Agree, I can't see Mercedes win a race this year based on its shambolic race form.

I'm not sure you can really make an accurate judgement of their race form after just 58 laps around a street circuit that is unused for 362 days of the year. Also, we never got to see Schumacher 'race' as his gearbox packed up before quarter distance.

I think largely we'll see the same winners as last year. Both Red Bull drivers and both McLaren drivers will take wins (Webber immediately looked better than last year).

Alonso could win but he is less certain than the four above drivers.

There is a large pool of drivers/teams that could win if they find themselves in the right position a the right time (a la Kovalainen at Hungary '09). Mercedes with Schumacher could though Rosberg is a poor, over-rated racer in my opinion. Both drivers at Lotus could spring a surprise (Grosjean is very good and Kimi is Kimi). Williams look like they have a capable car but whether either of their drivers can even luck into a win is debatable. Ferrari could come on strong by mid-season though I personally think even Alonso with struggle in the next few races once we get onto the proper, permanent circuits.

So, I say:

Button (obviously)
Vettel
Hamilton
Webber
Alonso
Raikonnen
Schumacher

(Those in italics I'm less certain about).

p-matt · 19 Mar 2012, 17:56 (Ref:3044774)

Quote:

Originally Posted by barnettracing

I'm not sure you can really make an accurate judgement of their race form after just 58 laps around a street circuit that is unused for 362 days of the year. Also, we never got to see Schumacher 'race' as his gearbox packed up before quarter distance.

True - we can apply the same logic to Williams though as well.

Mercedes' big problem last year and this year seemingly is keeping life in their tyres. If they haven't mastered that by now I would think it unlikely that they could win. It seems to me that Mercedes have thrown the kitchen sink at making them very fast in qualifying and in a straight line with the hope of doing a Red Bull and trying to control races at the front. The trouble is if their tyres fall to bits a super-duper DRS is not going to save them.

Maybe they can win a strange race in Monza or Montreal say, but I'm not sure.

barnettracing · 19 Mar 2012, 18:11 (Ref:3044781)

Quote:

Originally Posted by p-matt

True - we can apply the same logic to Williams though as well.

True. Testing looked reasonably impressive for Williams too. Solid, I would say.

Quote:

Originally Posted by p-matt

Mercedes' big problem last year and this year seemingly is keeping life in their tyres. If they haven't mastered that by now I would think it unlikely that they could win. It seems to me that Mercedes have thrown the kitchen sink at making them very fast in qualifying and in a straight line with the hope of doing a Red Bull and trying to control races at the front. The trouble is if their tyres fall to bits a super-duper DRS is not going to save them.

Maybe they can win a strange race in Monza or Montreal say, but I'm not sure.

It certainly looks like Rosberg was having problems with his tyres, but then he dropped off worse than Schumacher last year and, as I have said, he has never looked like on of the best racers in F1 (neither did he ever look scintillating in GP2 despite winning the title). Luckily Malaysia is only five days away, so after two races we should have a better idea of all the teams' competitiveness.

**Aysedasi** · 19 Mar 2012, 19:09 (Ref:3044829)

I think it's far too early to compile a list of potential winners, just based on Melbourne form. On that, I wouldn't predict a Ferrari win all season (but I'm sure Fernando will win - but Massa has no chance IMO). I just have a feeling that Mercedes may get a spot of luck somewhere, and who knows, the old boy might just register another win and then retire gracefully.... again.

I still don't see Raikkonen winning this season - I think Grosjean is just as likely to claim the podiums there..... (But everyone knows already that I'm far from sold on what I consider to be 'Raikkonen-hype', but hey, I could be eating my words by mid-season, and in some ways I hope I am!).

For me

Button
Hamilton
Vettel
Alonso

That's as far as I go....

wolfhound · 19 Mar 2012, 19:27 (Ref:3044843)

I think we are near due another unusual win like Vettel had in Monza with the Torro Rosso, Fisi with the Jordan in Brazil or Panis in Monaco with the Ligier.
I expect wins from Button, Vettel, Hamilton, Webber & Alonso.
However it looks like another winner could come from one of the second string teams of Mercedes, Lotus & Force India with Rosberg as the most likely followed by Schumacher, Raikkonen & Grosjean.
Of the rest I feel that the Williams and Torro Rosso drivers lack a little experience / ability at GP level. Sauber might throw up a freak result but have not shown the ability to it in the past (as Sauber).

Knowlesy · 19 Mar 2012, 22:16 (Ref:3044953)

If we are going by Melbourne then, clearly, only a McLaren or RBR driver will win a race all season?

**Born Racer** · 19 Mar 2012, 22:31 (Ref:3044968)

Williams? Not a chance. I'll be happy to be shown to be wrong on that score though.

Marbot · 20 Mar 2012, 00:32 (Ref:3045038)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Born Racer

Williams? Not a chance. I'll be happy to be shown to be wrong on that score though.

That's a post that I'll be happy coming back to.

**Bononi** · 20 Mar 2012, 00:52 (Ref:3045052)

I believe, Vettel and Hamilton will win this season. Button already have, so I'll give one more, Webber.

F1Pete · 20 Mar 2012, 01:01 (Ref:3045056)

Kimi will be on the podium and also will win a couple.

**Born Racer** · 20 Mar 2012, 01:04 (Ref:3045057)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marbot

That's a post that I'll be happy coming back to.

You won't need to. One good race in the unusual circuit of the first race does not a good season make (weird English grammar).

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