The 500k Curse?

[STEVO]

The 500k Curse!

Bookies and fans look to the Sandown 500 results as a ‘pre-cursor’ to the main enduro of the year; The Bathurst 1000.

But the harsh reality is that a win at Sandown is not always a guarantee of a Bathurst win… in fact, according to recent history – it’s a curse. Not only will it rob you of a win at Bathurst but history suggests it will even hamper chances of a podium finish at Mt. Panorama.

Bottom line is; no one has managed to win both the Sandown(/QLD 500) AND The Bathurst 1000 in the same year since 1996 when the Lowndes/Murphy combo won in the HRT car.

10 years on and not ONE team has managed to go back to back.

Here are the stats below.

Sandown/QLD 500 Winners and their Bathurst 1000 Result:
’97 – Lowndes/Murphy - DNF
’98 – Perkins/Ingall - 2nd
’99 – Perkins/Ingall - 7th
’00 – Skaife/Lowndes - 6th
‘01 - Radisich/Johnson - DNF
’02 – Besnard/Wills - DNS
’03 – Skaife/T.Kelly - 8th
’04 – Ambrose/Ritter - 4th
’05 – Lowndes/Muller - 15th
’06 – Bright/Winterbottom - DNF

So, is it a good form guide to predict Bathurst winners?

Heck, judging by those results, not even a podium is likely!

Over the last 10 years, has there been a 500k curse?

Interesting stuff. What say you?

[TSR]

If this is the case I hope that either Crash Bandicoot or Potato head win at Sandown so they DO NOT win Bathurst.

[STEVO]

I actually think winning Sandown is at times harder than Bathurst. All you need is ONE jammed wheel nut during a pitstop and you go down a lap.

At Bathurst, due to the length of track and race, as SBR proved in 2000, you can have 10 stops and a fire and still lead the race during the final laps.

[Pro Racer]

interesting ststs there, i'm with you stevo about Bathurst and the length of the track but with the race being double the length brings that element of hardness back up even passing Sandown so all up IMO Bathurst is harder to win but in saying that it being longer can also turn a horrible race into a half decent race.

[Wood-duck]

Interesting stats there Stevo - well brought up. Didnt realise it had been 10 years since a back to back winner... before 96, we had Johnson/Bowe in 1994 and prior to that Brock pretty much had a mortgage on the 'double'.

Out of the past ten 500 Winners you have listed, most of them have been very competitive at Bathurst 3 weeks after, with the exception of 2002... . So in some ways it does provide a form guide.. Bright lead comfortably last year prior to a failure, Lowndes the year before (although he suffered failure of a different type.. ..) Ambrose, Skaife/TK, Rat/Junior.. all had great chances to win the big one and do the 'double'.

Maybe this year could be the year of the repeat winner ! Speaking of milestones, Craig also holds the mantle of the last fellow to do the 'hat trick' (Championship, Sandown, Bathurst) in the one year.... could it be done this year ? And can Craig do it ?

[STEVO]

I reckon the triple crown won't happen this year and I don't think Lowndes can do it, at least not the overall title.

But who knows? Can you believe it's been 10 years!

Sandown always throws up a wobbly. Some smaller teams usually creep up on the podium and how about 1993 when David Parsons and Geoff Brabham won in the 2nd Glenn Seton Racing/Peter Jackson EB Falcon?

Who'd have thought a "second" car could win!

[00 XR8]

Originally Posted by Wood-duck

Out of the past ten 500 Winners you have listed, most of them have been very competitive at Bathurst 3 weeks after, with the exception of 2002... . So in some ways it does provide a form guide.. Bright lead comfortably last year prior to a failure, Lowndes the year before (although he suffered failure of a different type.. ..) Ambrose, Skaife/TK, Rat/Junior.. all had great chances to win the big one and do the 'double'.

Agreed. And then when you look at it the other way, the Bathurst winners in the last few years have always been well in contention to win at Sandown, only to have it get away from them.......... like #888 last year and #2 the year before.

I think these stats give more of an indication of the importance of Sandown as a form guide........... have a look at the amount of repeat names on the two podiums in each year looked at........

Sandown 2005
1). Lowndes/Muller
2). Richards/Whincup
3). Skaife/Kelly

Bathurst 2005
1). Skaife/Kelly
2). Richards/Whincup
3). Ellery/Macrow (who were 5th at Sandown).

........ with Sandown winners Lowndes/Muller striking trouble whilst in the lead at Bathurst.

Sandown 2006
1). Bright/Winterbottom
2). Kelly/Kelly
3). Lowndes/Whincup

Bathurst 2006
1). Lowndes/Whincup
2). Kelly/Kelly
3). Courtney/Seton

........ with Sandown winners Bright/Winterbottom striking trouble whilst in the lead at Bathurst.

So going well at Sandown generally indicates you will be on it at Bathurst.......

[James63]

Judging by those stats, whoever finishes 3rd at sandown will win bathurst

[Chatters]

Price and Perkins to finish 3rd at Sandown!!!

[Pro Racer]

other than Winton Sandown and Bathurst are the only 2 tracks they have prior main game experience at (more Sandown as they didn't last a lap at Bathurst but have done a few pactice laps there) and LP's cars are decent so i wouldn't put them out of the picture for a decent resault.

[00 XR8]

Originally Posted by James63

Judging by those stats, whoever finishes 3rd at sandown will win bathurst

Now that I think of it, Murphy and Kelly also won Bathurst after having come 3rd at Sandown in 2003.............. it seems we may be onto something here.

[agosling]

I reckon Lowndes will win Sandown and then Kelly and Tander will taken Bathurst. In fact I think, based on current form it will be at least a Holden 1, 2, possible even 1, 2, 3.

Ford only win Bathurst about once every ten years on average so they'll have to wait awhile for another win.

[Mickcals]

Originally Posted by 00 XR8

Sandown 2005
1). Lowndes/Muller
2). Richards/Whincup
3). Skaife/Kelly

I think you ll find the history books will say:

1. Lowndes/Muller
2. Skaife/T.Kelly
3. J.Ricahrds/Whincup

1 888 Team Betta Electrical C.Lowndes/Y.Muller Ford Falcon BA 161 03:30:51.8944 7 1:11.7940
2 2 Holden Racing Team T.Kelly/M.Skaife Holden Commodore VZ 161 03:31:27.5116 4 1:12.3325
3 3 Dodo Racing J.Richards/J.Whincup Holden Commodore VZ 161 03:31:42.7831 62 1:12.7105

[00 XR8]

Originally Posted by Mickcals

I think you ll find the history books will say:

1. Lowndes/Muller
2. Skaife/T.Kelly
3. J.Ricahrds/Whincup

Of course, good call Mickcals, it took ages for someone to pick that up.

It is amazing that the #2 managed second in that race, considering the fact that they stuffed the fuel strategy, Skaifey broke the front splitter, and Todd was his usual lacklustre enduro self..........

2005 was a cracker race, only one pace car all day I think, hopefully we will get more of the same this year.

[Mickcals]

2005 was a good race - i think it had more than one safety car because it was raining and the WPS cars took the chance to go rallying instead

[RotorFan]

Originally Posted by STEVO

Who'd have thought a "second" car could win!

Thats an interesting point, I wonder how many times that has happened?

[racer69]

Originally Posted by Mickcals

2005 was a good race - i think it had more than one safety car because it was raining and the WPS cars took the chance to go rallying instead

2005 only featured one safety car, on about lap 14 or something for the #11 Castrol car, just out of Torana Corner.

2004 was when the WPS cars couldn't stary on track

[STEVO]

So ...

Are Lowndes/Whincup cursed?

Or will Lowndes be the driver to break the streak, ironically being the last bloke to do it back in 1996?

Thoughts?

[Pro Racer]

IMO, it is possible he will break the curse but there will be 2 Commodores that will be harder to beat than they were at Sandown.

[Used Car]

So has the curse been broken, or has someone just cursed.. haha

[Pro Racer]

Originally Posted by Pro Racer

IMO, it is possible he will break the curse but there will be 2 Commodores that will be harder to beat than they were at Sandown.

well they wern't acctually, one was abit beat up and the other just couldn't stop .

[Wood-duck]

"It is only probability really" - Jamie Whincup.

There goes your curse. He is right, just because a given car wins Sandown makes it no less or no more a chance on the Mountain.

I was thinking the other day (it didnt hurt tooooo much) that one record that is unlikely to fall for sometime is the benchmark set by the great Jacky Ickx in 1977 - the great races last debutant winner.

One has to think that with V8 Supercars becoming so specialised these days, that this mark will stand for quite some time. The closest I can recall off the top of my head that a rookie came to winning was Dave Besnard in 2000.

Hard to see where the likely 'rookie' will come from...

[DAVID PATERSON]

A rookie nearly won in 1994.

[Wood-duck]

Originally Posted by DAVID PATERSON

A rookie nearly won in 1994.

Oopss... you are right patto - an easy one to overlook

But since the introduction of V8 Supercar, the Rookies that get near the front of the field are getting fewer generally, and that record set by Jacky Ickx may not be broken for many, many years..

The best results for rookies in the recent past as far as my memory extends (correct me if i am wrong guys & gals)

1994 - Lowndes (2nd), Steve Johnson (7th)
1995 - Steven Richards (4th)
1996 - Tom Kendall (8th)
1997 (V8) - Scott Pruett & Jason Bright (11th)
1998 (V8) - Paul Weel (9th)
1999 - Greg Ritter & Steve Owen (9th) (not sure about this one..)
2000 - Yvan Muller (10th) although Bessy got close
2001 - Ashley Stitchbury (12th)
2002 - Will Power (18th)
2003 - Nicholas Minnasinen & Jan Magnussen (11th) Although Rydell (a V8 rookie) finished 7th for Triple 8.
2004 - Alex Davison ??? (9th)
2005 - Matt Halliday (12th) ???
2006 - Grant Denyer (9th)
2007 - Andrew Thompson (8th)

Lowndes was the last one to even get close at the finish line. Given that V8's are becoming so specialised it may take the implementation of the "no main gamers pair together" rule to see this record toppled. Although Marcos Ambrose has the latest 'rookie pole' to his name.

[Pro Racer]

while in 2005 Yvan Muller wasn't a rookie he was a fly in for the enduro's and won Sandown in crappy conditions and would of gave the mountain a good tilt had Lowndes not wacked the wall.