Danica vs Mike...

[Dutton]

Originally Posted by DanicaFan

Danica gets that Motorola Car going real good. She has talent. You watch, on all the ovals this year, she will qualify in the top 5 at every one of them and even a couple poles!

Alright! You are on my friend.

DanicaFan's Claim
Dutton's Claim (aka Rational Claim)

Mike Conway WILL NOT finish ahead of Danica in any race in which both finish without crashing or having mechanical failures.
Whilst DanicaFan's claim could theoretically happen, probability would suggest Mike Conway will finish ahead of Danica at least once when both finish without crashing or having mechanical failures.

On all the ovals this year, she will qualify in the top 5 at every one of them[,] and even [get] a couple poles
Whilst DanicaFan's claim could theoretically happen, probability would suggest Danica will not qualify in the top 5 for everyone of the oval races. A couple of poles is entirely feasible, although absolutely not a fact.

I am putting my bets on DanicaFan's claims proving to be false, with the exception of the poles part (I am not contesting that, but am not claiming it will happen).

The difference is I am going with what I think is probable, but not considering them a matter of fact. DanicaFan is claiming these matters to be a matter of fact. Perhaps I have misinterpreted the nature of DanicaFan's claims, in which case I am sorry, but they seems to be assertions of fact.

There is something of a possibility of the first going DanicaFan's way, although I think the shake of things will disprove it. The latter, though, I have to say is quite something: the part about a couple of poles I am not betting against (it is quite possible, if far from a certainty), but qualifying every one in the top-5 seems incredibly improbable.

****

DanicaFan, you have made noises about Danica and wins. Any betting you fancy on that front? I may or may not take it up (it would depend whether you were keeping a vague grip on reality or not with the prediction).