Mathematical Model to compare the fastest F1 drivers (1987-2023)

[BTCC frog]

There are plenty of other mathematical models comparing the greatest Formula 1 drivers of all time, but I have made one of my own which I hope you will find interesting.

https://f1frogblog.wordpress.com/202...ver-1987-2023/

My model is comparing only the outright qualifying speed of the drivers, as it is based on supertimes, the fastest laps of the weekend, compared to teammates. Essentially it takes an average supertime for each driver in each season and says that if, for example, Max Verstappen was 0.5% faster than Sergio Perez, and Perez was 0.5% faster than Lance Stroll, then Verstappen is 1% faster than Stroll, and sort of takes the average of all the different combinations. There is a more comprehensive explanation in the article.

The main advantage of the model compared to others, I think, is that it is quite simple so it is very easy to spot where a weird result comes from, and I have provided all the data in the article to make that clear. I have also provided an explanation about every driver's position so as to try and understand why they are there and if they should be higher or lower based on subjective factors.

However, there are many obvious flaws, which is why I am not at all claiming that the results shown are an accurate representation of the drivers' ability. For example, due to everything about modern day F1 like simulators, training and telemetry, the gaps between the drivers are very close together, compared to in the past. Nigel Mansell was 0.7% faster than Riccardo Patrese in 1988, and Fernando Alonso was 0.7% faster than Lance Stroll in 2023. Therefore, Patrese and Stroll rank similarly in the overall list, and this is the reason why. So the model is biased in favour of more recent drivers, and so it isn't a good way of comparing two drivers of wildly different eras. I have provided season rankings at the bottom of the article as it seems fairer to compare drivers of similar eras in this way, and those tables show this more clearly.

Also, there are the same disadvantages that apply to all models that drivers' level changes throughout their career so you get strange circles like the fact that Damon Hill beat Jacques Villeneuve, who beat Heinz-Harald Frentzen, who beat Damon Hill. But again, I have tried to address the potential reasons this could happen in the explanations about every driver in the article. And this model is only comparing qualifying speed, rather than overall results and points are won in the race.

So the results could be taken as a base, objective measure but shouldn't be taken too seriously as they should then adjusted significantly by subjective factors to get a more accurate ranking of the drivers, because there are plenty of factors that cannot be explained by maths.

I hope you enjoy reading it.