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15 Apr 2020, 07:26 (Ref:3970898) | #1 | ||
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Hypothetical BTCC 2020 Season
With the start of the 2020 season still not certain, and cars not heading onto track in any capacity at the moment, I began to wonder if there was a way to predict how the season could have panned out if it went ahead as planned.
So, just for fun, and to hopefully provide a little bit of entertainment for those on the forum, I have developed a hypothetical 2020 season result predictor. In compiling the tool, a number of factors have been calculated as follows: Driver Base Skill Driver Form Team Skill Team Form Car Skill Car Form All of these characteristics have been derived from results and statistical analysis, which means the 'scores' are weighted to those with more experience. But for the purposes of this run through, they seem to suffice. At this stage, I am unsure what the results will be, or even how realistic they may appear. When an element of randomness is entered, it might see crazy results, or it might be a bit too predictable. I will share the results in this thread as the hypothetical season develops, and hope that others enjoy what is, as a I said, just for fun and general interest. |
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15 Apr 2020, 07:38 (Ref:3970901) | #2 | ||
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Before the hypothetical season gets underway, the ranking of each driver (and so theoretically the predicted final championship positions) is as follows:
Turkington, Cammish, Jordan, Neal, Oliphant, Cook, Chilton, Plato, Hill, Ingram, Butcher, M.Jackson, Crees, Sutton, O.Jackson, Osborne, Morgan, Thompson, Neate, Moffat, Gornall, Jelley, Bushell, Smiley, Rowbottom, Goff, Proctor, Boardley, Hamilton |
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15 Apr 2020, 09:30 (Ref:3970912) | #3 | |
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Hold on, I need some popcorn for this one
I know you explained the reasoning behind the ranking but there are several regulars on this forum who will, I predict, take you to task for Driver A being above drivers B, G, H and Z! (Note that the letters here are hypothetical, not lines in a spreadsheet and nothing to do with the list above) |
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15 Apr 2020, 10:01 (Ref:3970917) | #4 | |||
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Quote:
I genuinely have no idea how the results will turn out yet, and I have avoided trying to 'load' the background calculations and figures in favour of any particular entity. The ranking already shows how this is difficult to achieve. Oliphant appears higher than possibly expected because the car and team have had so much recent success. Ingram appears lower down than expected, as a result of Speedworks operating as a single-car team. When Ingram had a bad day last season, the driver, car and team were all impacted. One thing that struck me was how well AmD, and in particular, Tordoff, performed last season. This has had a knock-on effect on anyone sat in an AmD car in this hypothetical season. |
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15 Apr 2020, 10:30 (Ref:3970921) | #5 | ||
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So today, we look at Qualifying for the first Race at Donington.
Part of the modelling does mean that Qualifying is one of the more 'random' elements of the weekend, and so results may vary wildly. Once everything has been run through the 'predictor', the grid for Race One is as follows: 1 - Morgan 2 - Jelley 3 - Neal 4 - Plato 5 - Goff 6 - Oliphant 7 - Ingram 8 - Smiley 9 - Proctor 10 - Hill 11 - Boardley 12 - Moffat 13 - Jordan 14 - Neate 15 - Cook 16 - Sutton 17 - Cammish 18 - Hamilton 19 - Butcher 20 - O.Jackson 21 - Bushell 22 - Gornall 23 - Chilton 24 - Osborne 25 - Crees 26 - M.Jackson 27 - Turkington 28 - Thompson 29 - Rowbottom So a few surprises in the results. The 1-series looks to have gone well in the early conditions, and the experienced heads of Neal and Plato managed to get good results. Last season's main title contenders all looked to struggle to get to grips. Perhaps the pressure got to them all, or they got a bit bunched up in traffic. It does look like we might have a BMW leading into the first corner of the season, but not necessarily the model we were expecting? |
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"When you’re just too socially awkward for real life, Ten-Tenths welcomes you with open arms. Everyone has me figured out, which makes it super easy for me." |
15 Apr 2020, 14:20 (Ref:3970954) | #6 | ||
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Quote:
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15 Apr 2020, 14:28 (Ref:3970956) | #7 | |
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Can you explain your "calculation" and how you decided to rank the drivers in that order please as this otherwise just looks like you are randomly listing out driver names
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15 Apr 2020, 14:46 (Ref:3970958) | #8 | ||
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My brain just fell out of my ear trying to understand this thread. It was sort of making sense until I saw the drivers you had listed as qualifying behind Nick Hamilton, especially the one in 27th.
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It's just my opinion. |
15 Apr 2020, 15:07 (Ref:3970963) | #9 | ||||
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Quote:
Quote:
I see a particular driver was highlighted (27th) and it would seem illogical for them to be that low based on last season's results. Who knows: Perhaps the weather closed in suddenly (it was Donington in March)? Maybe the car failed a ride-height check? Grid Penalty for blocking? Overboost on the engine? Any one driver can have a bad day qualifying. Just for reference though - Hamilton qualified in 20th at Round One in 2019 so is it too much of a stretch for him to have got an 18th? In 2018, Turkington qualified 18th at Silverstone, and 17th at Brands - again, he is capable of having a bad performance on occasion. |
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15 Apr 2020, 15:13 (Ref:3970965) | #10 | |||
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Driver Skill is a weighted summation of their previous titles, wins, podiums, winning percentage and podium percentage - with weighting towards BTCC titles and wins. Driver Performance is a combination of a rolling score based on their last 30 races, along with a weighted score towards recent results to induce an element of 'form'. Team and Car Skill/Performance scores are determined in a similar manner. Therefore - drivers who have moved to a team who have been more successful recently may have a better score than staying where they are. Full calculations would be too complex to list here, but a summary of the starting values for each driver is as follows (final figure is the basis for rank): Turkington 330i WSR 100 77.3 84.6375 99 88.6 100 88.6 638.1375 Oliphant 330i WSR 81 63.5 76.9475 99 88.6 100 88.6 597.6475 Jordan 330i WSR 96 76.5 85.515 99 88.6 100 88.6 634.215 Jackson.M Astra PMR 93 63.2 77.2425 79 76 75 76 539.4425 Plato Astra PMR 99 71 82.73 79 76 75 76 558.73 Neal FK8 Dynamics 98 67.7 78.6925 100 85.6 99 91.9 620.8925 Cammish FK8 Dynamics 97 77.8 86.1775 100 85.6 99 91.9 637.4775 Ingram Corolla Speedworks 94 69.9 80.015 88 69.9 75 69.9 546.715 Chilton FK8 BTC 88 63.3 75.72 89 76.6 99 91.9 583.52 Cook FK8 BTC 74 72 81.0475 89 76.6 99 91.9 583.5475 Crees FK8 BTC 75 28.3 53.69 89 76.6 99 91.9 513.49 Osborne FK2 AmD 55 24.4 52.1475 90 84 85 84 474.5475 Hill FK2 AmD 87 55.5 71.68 90 84 85 84 557.18 Butcher Focus ST Motorbase 90 72.9 82.4525 80 73.8 75 69 543.1525 Neate Focus ST Motorbase 55 43.1 62.305 80 73.8 75 69 458.205 O.Jackson Focus ST Motorbase 70 50.1 70.4775 80 73.8 75 69 488.3775 Jelley 125i Parkers 82 48.5 65.51 70 48.5 70 48.5 433.01 Moffat Q50 Laser 64 54 70.56 68 54 75 54 439.56 Sutton Q50 Laser 95 69.3 79.3 68 54 75 54 494.6 Proctor i30 Excelr8 65 40.9 61.19 67 35.5 75 62 406.59 Smiley i30 Excelr8 69 50.9 68.54 67 35.5 75 62 427.94 Thompson S3 AmD 67 40.4 62.475 90 84 60 60.7 464.575 Gornall S3 AmD 89 10 42.625 90 84 60 60.7 436.325 Bushell CC HARD 86 43.5 64.5525 69 54.5 60 54.5 432.0525 Goff CC HARD 73 42.3 63.0775 69 54.5 60 54.5 416.3775 Hamilton CC HARD 55 27.7 53.415 69 54.5 60 54.5 374.115 Boardley 125i HARD 68 30.1 56.105 69 54.5 70 48.5 396.205 Rowbottom A-Class Ciceley 66 36.1 59.455 69 61.2 70 61.2 422.955 Morgan A-Class Ciceley 80 54.8 70.59 69 61.2 70 61.2 466.79 |
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"When you’re just too socially awkward for real life, Ten-Tenths welcomes you with open arms. Everyone has me figured out, which makes it super easy for me." |
15 Apr 2020, 15:15 (Ref:3970966) | #11 | |||
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But then - do you remember the qualifying results from Silverstone 2018? https://www.tsl-timing.com/event/183703/session/qu1trg |
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15 Apr 2020, 15:26 (Ref:3970969) | #12 | ||
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Final update for today, the first bit of race action.
Once the grid was formed up, there was an expectation that RWD cars would (as always) gain a start line advantage. This turned out to be so, and the running order as the field heads through the first corner is: Jelley - having made a solid start Morgan - passed by Jelley on the start, but otherwise holds his position Oliphant - again making advantage of RWD, and closing on Morgan fast Neal - a bit slower away than Oliphant, but otherwise solid Goff, Plato - slightly slow away and passed by a couple of cars Ingram, Moffat - seems to have really got the hang of getting the Q50 away in race trim Jordan - followed Moffat through a few of the slower starters Boardley, Sutton - stabbed rat comes to mind Smiley, Proctor, Hill - all passed by RWD cars off the line in the middle of the field bunching Neate, Cook, Cammish, Hamilton, Butcher, O.Jackson, Bushell, Gornall, Chilton, Turkington - another to benefit from RWD, making up 3 places before the first turn Crees, M.Jackson, Osborne - seemed to get bogged down a bit Thompson and finally Rowbottom bringing up the rear. |
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"When you’re just too socially awkward for real life, Ten-Tenths welcomes you with open arms. Everyone has me figured out, which makes it super easy for me." |
15 Apr 2020, 16:21 (Ref:3970977) | #13 | |
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I admire your effort but this whole thread is just bizarre, can tell its lockdown time.
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15 Apr 2020, 16:53 (Ref:3970986) | #14 | |||
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Hypothetically a back end of a BMW would have been misshapen by a hypothetical Honda I should imagine. Probably. Anyway, mines a tank so I win. |
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15 Apr 2020, 17:44 (Ref:3970995) | #15 | |
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15 Apr 2020, 18:27 (Ref:3971004) | #16 | |||
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It's a combination of driver, team and car. The A-Class (and subsequently Ciceley) is getting worse. The team only achieved 10th in Teams, and 11th in Independents last season so statistically do not perform well. Crees and Osborne, based on the teams and cars for 2020, should (on paper) outperform an A-Class. It does show though, people's opinions will always differ to what the statistics tell you. But I'd be interested to see an argument for an A-Class to outperform an FK8 or FK2. |
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15 Apr 2020, 18:35 (Ref:3971009) | #17 | ||
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This isn’t aimed at slagging Neate off just wondering how statistics have come to this conclusion |
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15 Apr 2020, 19:08 (Ref:3971013) | #18 | |
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So based on these statistics and algorithms that I'm not sure anyone understands, what is running this simulation and why has it taken best part of a day to get to the first corner when qualifying only took you an hour or so
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15 Apr 2020, 20:16 (Ref:3971025) | #19 | |||
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In the case of Neate, there are two main factors: A) An assumption is made that the new focus will perform at least as well as the old one. B) Motorbase had some decent results last season. Put those together, and anyone in that car/team looks reasonable on paper. |
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15 Apr 2020, 20:18 (Ref:3971028) | #20 | ||
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Qualifying took more than an hour, but progress through the season will be as and when I can crunch the numbers.
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15 Apr 2020, 23:07 (Ref:3971052) | #21 | |
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But crunch the numbers on what? What program is this or is it just a sliding spreadsheet in your head?
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16 Apr 2020, 00:32 (Ref:3971060) | #22 | |
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Let me speed things up for you:
Cook would be leading the championship leaving Donington, having picked up two wins. Jordan would win the other race and would be second in the championship. Cammish is third, with Hill, Turkington and Ingram next. At Brands, Chilton will take pole. Carry on. |
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16 Apr 2020, 06:04 (Ref:3971077) | #23 | ||
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16 Apr 2020, 09:39 (Ref:3971097) | #24 | ||
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It's just my opinion. |
16 Apr 2020, 09:57 (Ref:3971100) | #25 | ||
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It's something I'd consider on a future iteration. For now, given that I am using software that would normally have a team of analysts providing data to, I have to keep the range of potential 'outcomes' to a minimum.
I'm still learning the software, so I expect that a fair amount of refinement is possible. |
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