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Old 15 Apr 2020, 07:26 (Ref:3970898)   #1
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Hypothetical BTCC 2020 Season

With the start of the 2020 season still not certain, and cars not heading onto track in any capacity at the moment, I began to wonder if there was a way to predict how the season could have panned out if it went ahead as planned.

So, just for fun, and to hopefully provide a little bit of entertainment for those on the forum, I have developed a hypothetical 2020 season result predictor.

In compiling the tool, a number of factors have been calculated as follows:

Driver Base Skill
Driver Form
Team Skill
Team Form
Car Skill
Car Form

All of these characteristics have been derived from results and statistical analysis, which means the 'scores' are weighted to those with more experience. But for the purposes of this run through, they seem to suffice.

At this stage, I am unsure what the results will be, or even how realistic they may appear. When an element of randomness is entered, it might see crazy results, or it might be a bit too predictable.

I will share the results in this thread as the hypothetical season develops, and hope that others enjoy what is, as a I said, just for fun and general interest.
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 07:38 (Ref:3970901)   #2
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Before the hypothetical season gets underway, the ranking of each driver (and so theoretically the predicted final championship positions) is as follows:

Turkington,
Cammish,
Jordan,
Neal,
Oliphant,
Cook,
Chilton,
Plato,
Hill,
Ingram,
Butcher,
M.Jackson,
Crees,
Sutton,
O.Jackson,
Osborne,
Morgan,
Thompson,
Neate,
Moffat,
Gornall,
Jelley,
Bushell,
Smiley,
Rowbottom,
Goff,
Proctor,
Boardley,
Hamilton
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 09:30 (Ref:3970912)   #3
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Hold on, I need some popcorn for this one

I know you explained the reasoning behind the ranking but there are several regulars on this forum who will, I predict, take you to task for Driver A being above drivers B, G, H and Z!

(Note that the letters here are hypothetical, not lines in a spreadsheet and nothing to do with the list above)
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 10:01 (Ref:3970917)   #4
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Originally Posted by Greem View Post
I know you explained the reasoning behind the ranking but there are several regulars on this forum who will, I predict, take you to task for Driver A being above drivers B, G, H and Z!
I highly expect that to be the case. Hopefully the results, ranking and methodology will be accepted as not intended to indicate a real-world assessment. I could have selected drivers/teams/cars at random and not based it on the 2020 season, but I hope this way there is a bit more to hook people's interest.

I genuinely have no idea how the results will turn out yet, and I have avoided trying to 'load' the background calculations and figures in favour of any particular entity.

The ranking already shows how this is difficult to achieve.
Oliphant appears higher than possibly expected because the car and team have had so much recent success.
Ingram appears lower down than expected, as a result of Speedworks operating as a single-car team. When Ingram had a bad day last season, the driver, car and team were all impacted.

One thing that struck me was how well AmD, and in particular, Tordoff, performed last season. This has had a knock-on effect on anyone sat in an AmD car in this hypothetical season.
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 10:30 (Ref:3970921)   #5
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So today, we look at Qualifying for the first Race at Donington.

Part of the modelling does mean that Qualifying is one of the more 'random' elements of the weekend, and so results may vary wildly.

Once everything has been run through the 'predictor', the grid for Race One is as follows:

1 - Morgan
2 - Jelley
3 - Neal
4 - Plato
5 - Goff
6 - Oliphant
7 - Ingram
8 - Smiley
9 - Proctor
10 - Hill
11 - Boardley
12 - Moffat
13 - Jordan
14 - Neate
15 - Cook
16 - Sutton
17 - Cammish
18 - Hamilton
19 - Butcher
20 - O.Jackson
21 - Bushell
22 - Gornall
23 - Chilton
24 - Osborne
25 - Crees
26 - M.Jackson
27 - Turkington
28 - Thompson
29 - Rowbottom


So a few surprises in the results.
The 1-series looks to have gone well in the early conditions, and the experienced heads of Neal and Plato managed to get good results.
Last season's main title contenders all looked to struggle to get to grips. Perhaps the pressure got to them all, or they got a bit bunched up in traffic.

It does look like we might have a BMW leading into the first corner of the season, but not necessarily the model we were expecting?
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 14:20 (Ref:3970954)   #6
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Pdh should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridPdh should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridPdh should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
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Originally Posted by crmalcolm View Post
So today, we look at Qualifying for the first Race at Donington.

Part of the modelling does mean that Qualifying is one of the more 'random' elements of the weekend, and so results may vary wildly.

Once everything has been run through the 'predictor', the grid for Race One is as follows:

1 - Morgan
2 - Jelley
3 - Neal
4 - Plato
5 - Goff
6 - Oliphant
7 - Ingram
8 - Smiley
9 - Proctor
10 - Hill
11 - Boardley
12 - Moffat
13 - Jordan
14 - Neate
15 - Cook
16 - Sutton
17 - Cammish
18 - Hamilton
19 - Butcher
20 - O.Jackson
21 - Bushell
22 - Gornall
23 - Chilton
24 - Osborne
25 - Crees
26 - M.Jackson
27 - Turkington
28 - Thompson
29 - Rowbottom


So a few surprises in the results.
The 1-series looks to have gone well in the early conditions, and the experienced heads of Neal and Plato managed to get good results.
Last season's main title contenders all looked to struggle to get to grips. Perhaps the pressure got to them all, or they got a bit bunched up in traffic.

It does look like we might have a BMW leading into the first corner of the season, but not necessarily the model we were expecting?
Even Alan Gow couldn’t manipulate the grid to look like that in real life
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 14:28 (Ref:3970956)   #7
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mj088 should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
Can you explain your "calculation" and how you decided to rank the drivers in that order please as this otherwise just looks like you are randomly listing out driver names
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 14:46 (Ref:3970958)   #8
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My brain just fell out of my ear trying to understand this thread. It was sort of making sense until I saw the drivers you had listed as qualifying behind Nick Hamilton, especially the one in 27th.
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 15:07 (Ref:3970963)   #9
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Originally Posted by steve_r View Post
It was sort of making sense until I saw the drivers you had listed as qualifying behind Nick Hamilton, especially the one in 27th.
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Originally Posted by Greem View Post
there are several regulars on this forum who will, I predict, take you to task for Driver A being above drivers B, G, H and Z!
As I explained - there is an element of randomness to this - otherwise the result would be known before the simulated series even began.

I see a particular driver was highlighted (27th) and it would seem illogical for them to be that low based on last season's results.
Who knows:
Perhaps the weather closed in suddenly (it was Donington in March)?
Maybe the car failed a ride-height check?
Grid Penalty for blocking?
Overboost on the engine?

Any one driver can have a bad day qualifying.

Just for reference though - Hamilton qualified in 20th at Round One in 2019 so is it too much of a stretch for him to have got an 18th?
In 2018, Turkington qualified 18th at Silverstone, and 17th at Brands - again, he is capable of having a bad performance on occasion.
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 15:13 (Ref:3970965)   #10
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Originally Posted by mj088 View Post
Can you explain your "calculation" and how you decided to rank the drivers in that order please as this otherwise just looks like you are randomly listing out driver names
In short:

Driver Skill is a weighted summation of their previous titles, wins, podiums, winning percentage and podium percentage - with weighting towards BTCC titles and wins.
Driver Performance is a combination of a rolling score based on their last 30 races, along with a weighted score towards recent results to induce an element of 'form'.
Team and Car Skill/Performance scores are determined in a similar manner.

Therefore - drivers who have moved to a team who have been more successful recently may have a better score than staying where they are.

Full calculations would be too complex to list here, but a summary of the starting values for each driver is as follows (final figure is the basis for rank):

Turkington 330i WSR 100 77.3 84.6375 99 88.6 100 88.6 638.1375
Oliphant 330i WSR 81 63.5 76.9475 99 88.6 100 88.6 597.6475
Jordan 330i WSR 96 76.5 85.515 99 88.6 100 88.6 634.215
Jackson.M Astra PMR 93 63.2 77.2425 79 76 75 76 539.4425
Plato Astra PMR 99 71 82.73 79 76 75 76 558.73
Neal FK8 Dynamics 98 67.7 78.6925 100 85.6 99 91.9 620.8925
Cammish FK8 Dynamics 97 77.8 86.1775 100 85.6 99 91.9 637.4775
Ingram Corolla Speedworks 94 69.9 80.015 88 69.9 75 69.9 546.715
Chilton FK8 BTC 88 63.3 75.72 89 76.6 99 91.9 583.52
Cook FK8 BTC 74 72 81.0475 89 76.6 99 91.9 583.5475
Crees FK8 BTC 75 28.3 53.69 89 76.6 99 91.9 513.49
Osborne FK2 AmD 55 24.4 52.1475 90 84 85 84 474.5475
Hill FK2 AmD 87 55.5 71.68 90 84 85 84 557.18
Butcher Focus ST Motorbase 90 72.9 82.4525 80 73.8 75 69 543.1525
Neate Focus ST Motorbase 55 43.1 62.305 80 73.8 75 69 458.205
O.Jackson Focus ST Motorbase 70 50.1 70.4775 80 73.8 75 69 488.3775
Jelley 125i Parkers 82 48.5 65.51 70 48.5 70 48.5 433.01
Moffat Q50 Laser 64 54 70.56 68 54 75 54 439.56
Sutton Q50 Laser 95 69.3 79.3 68 54 75 54 494.6
Proctor i30 Excelr8 65 40.9 61.19 67 35.5 75 62 406.59
Smiley i30 Excelr8 69 50.9 68.54 67 35.5 75 62 427.94
Thompson S3 AmD 67 40.4 62.475 90 84 60 60.7 464.575
Gornall S3 AmD 89 10 42.625 90 84 60 60.7 436.325
Bushell CC HARD 86 43.5 64.5525 69 54.5 60 54.5 432.0525
Goff CC HARD 73 42.3 63.0775 69 54.5 60 54.5 416.3775
Hamilton CC HARD 55 27.7 53.415 69 54.5 60 54.5 374.115
Boardley 125i HARD 68 30.1 56.105 69 54.5 70 48.5 396.205
Rowbottom A-Class Ciceley 66 36.1 59.455 69 61.2 70 61.2 422.955
Morgan A-Class Ciceley 80 54.8 70.59 69 61.2 70 61.2 466.79
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 15:15 (Ref:3970966)   #11
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Originally Posted by Pdh View Post
Even Alan Gow couldn’t manipulate the grid to look like that in real life
True!


But then - do you remember the qualifying results from Silverstone 2018?

https://www.tsl-timing.com/event/183703/session/qu1trg
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 15:26 (Ref:3970969)   #12
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Final update for today, the first bit of race action.
Once the grid was formed up, there was an expectation that RWD cars would (as always) gain a start line advantage.
This turned out to be so, and the running order as the field heads through the first corner is:

Jelley - having made a solid start
Morgan - passed by Jelley on the start, but otherwise holds his position
Oliphant - again making advantage of RWD, and closing on Morgan fast
Neal - a bit slower away than Oliphant, but otherwise solid
Goff,
Plato - slightly slow away and passed by a couple of cars
Ingram,
Moffat - seems to have really got the hang of getting the Q50 away in race trim
Jordan - followed Moffat through a few of the slower starters
Boardley,
Sutton - stabbed rat comes to mind
Smiley, Proctor, Hill - all passed by RWD cars off the line in the middle of the field bunching
Neate,
Cook,
Cammish,
Hamilton,
Butcher,
O.Jackson,
Bushell,
Gornall,
Chilton,
Turkington - another to benefit from RWD, making up 3 places before the first turn
Crees,
M.Jackson,
Osborne - seemed to get bogged down a bit
Thompson and finally Rowbottom bringing up the rear.
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 16:21 (Ref:3970977)   #13
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mj088 should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
I admire your effort but this whole thread is just bizarre, can tell its lockdown time.
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 16:53 (Ref:3970986)   #14
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Originally Posted by steve_r View Post
My brain just fell out of my ear trying to understand this thread. It was sort of making sense until I saw the drivers you had listed as qualifying behind Nick Hamilton, especially the one in 27th.
Ok, I'm glad you said this I thought my brain had been reduced to mushy peas.

Hypothetically a back end of a BMW would have been misshapen by a hypothetical Honda I should imagine. Probably. Anyway, mines a tank so I win.
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 17:44 (Ref:3970995)   #15
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Evantra should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridEvantra should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridEvantra should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
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I admire your effort but this whole thread is just bizarre, can tell its lockdown time.
Yeah... lost me when Crees and Osborne were rated better than Morgan...
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 18:27 (Ref:3971004)   #16
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Yeah... lost me when Crees and Osborne were rated better than Morgan...
It's not just the driver alone that earns the ranking.
It's a combination of driver, team and car. The A-Class (and subsequently Ciceley) is getting worse.
The team only achieved 10th in Teams, and 11th in Independents last season so statistically do not perform well.

Crees and Osborne, based on the teams and cars for 2020, should (on paper) outperform an A-Class.

It does show though, people's opinions will always differ to what the statistics tell you. But I'd be interested to see an argument for an A-Class to outperform an FK8 or FK2.
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 18:35 (Ref:3971009)   #17
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Pdh should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridPdh should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridPdh should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
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Originally Posted by crmalcolm View Post
It's not just the driver alone that earns the ranking.
It's a combination of driver, team and car. The A-Class (and subsequently Ciceley) is getting worse.
The team only achieved 10th in Teams, and 11th in Independents last season so statistically do not perform well.

Crees and Osborne, based on the teams and cars for 2020, should (on paper) outperform an A-Class.

It does show though, people's opinions will always differ to what the statistics tell you. But I'd be interested to see an argument for an A-Class to outperform an FK8 or FK2.
Well how do statistics rank 10 drivers worse than Andy Neate who hasn’t driven a touring car for 3 years in a car that’s not raced yet.
This isn’t aimed at slagging Neate off just wondering how statistics have come to this conclusion
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 19:08 (Ref:3971013)   #18
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mj088 should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
So based on these statistics and algorithms that I'm not sure anyone understands, what is running this simulation and why has it taken best part of a day to get to the first corner when qualifying only took you an hour or so
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 20:16 (Ref:3971025)   #19
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Well how do statistics rank 10 drivers worse than Andy Neate who hasn’t driven a touring car for 3 years in a car that’s not raced yet.
This isn’t aimed at slagging Neate off just wondering how statistics have come to this conclusion
I appreciate that statistics will always throw up anomalies that may not make sense.

In the case of Neate, there are two main factors:

A) An assumption is made that the new focus will perform at least as well as the old one.
B) Motorbase had some decent results last season.

Put those together, and anyone in that car/team looks reasonable on paper.
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 20:18 (Ref:3971028)   #20
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So based on these statistics and algorithms that I'm not sure anyone understands, what is running this simulation and why has it taken best part of a day to get to the first corner when qualifying only took you an hour or so
Qualifying took more than an hour, but progress through the season will be as and when I can crunch the numbers.
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 23:07 (Ref:3971052)   #21
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mj088 should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
But crunch the numbers on what? What program is this or is it just a sliding spreadsheet in your head?
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Old 16 Apr 2020, 00:32 (Ref:3971060)   #22
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sceptic should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
Let me speed things up for you:

Cook would be leading the championship leaving Donington, having picked up two wins. Jordan would win the other race and would be second in the championship. Cammish is third, with Hill, Turkington and Ingram next.

At Brands, Chilton will take pole.

Carry on.
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Old 16 Apr 2020, 06:04 (Ref:3971077)   #23
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crmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Fame
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But crunch the numbers on what? What program is this or is it just a sliding spreadsheet in your head?
It's all being ran on Iceberg-Lite (Desktop version).
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Old 16 Apr 2020, 09:39 (Ref:3971097)   #24
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steve_r is going for a new world record!steve_r is going for a new world record!steve_r is going for a new world record!steve_r is going for a new world record!steve_r is going for a new world record!steve_r is going for a new world record!steve_r is going for a new world record!
Can we add random elements?

This guy invaded the track on lap 8, but got run over by Jason Plato.



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Old 16 Apr 2020, 09:57 (Ref:3971100)   #25
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Can we add random elements?
It's something I'd consider on a future iteration. For now, given that I am using software that would normally have a team of analysts providing data to, I have to keep the range of potential 'outcomes' to a minimum.

I'm still learning the software, so I expect that a fair amount of refinement is possible.
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