[Driver] Carlos Pace

[BTCC frog]

A hypothetical question. Could Carlos Pace have won a championship had he not been killed in 1977?

Firstly, a history of his career:

Following three consecutive Brazilian national championships and a strong season in Formula 3, Pace was picked up by Frank Williams for a season in Formula 2 in 1971, and then raced for his team in Formula 1 in 1972. Driving a March, Pace beat teammate Henri Pescarolo in only his second race, picking up a point for sixth at Jarama, and from 11th on the grid he finished fifth at Nivelles. Pace failed to score a point again in 1972, but he was consistently quicker than Pescarolo and left the team before the end of the year to join Surtees.

Pace made his debut for Surtees, a more competitive team, in 1973, with a strong teammate in Mike Hailwood. In his second race, Pace qualified sixth in Interlagos and ran in the points before retiring. Early in the season, Hailwood had the slight edge, but Pace gained the upper hand in the second half of the season, finishing an impressive fourth in the Nurburgring and going one better in the Osterreichring, with his maiden podium finish. Pace qualified fifth in Monza but suffered a brake failure, and ended the season 11th in the championship, having suffered with poor reliability but established himself as a future star.

In 1974, Carlos Pace continued to drive for Surtees, and was quicker than teammate Jochen Mass, finishing fourth at Interlagos, and qualifying an excellent second in Kyalami before a slow start. However, he struggled with multiple mechanical failures and quit the team as a result after Anderstorp. Pace was signed for Brabham from Brands Hatch, after failing to qualify in a privateer Brabham at Dijon.

Carlos Pace took a couple of races to get going with Brabham, but then qualified fourth at the Osterreichring and ran second until a fuel leak put him out. Pace qualified third, right behind team leader Reutemann, at Monza but finished fifth. Then he qualified fourth at Watkins Glen, and Brabham dominated the race as he followed Reutemann home for a second position, giving him 12th in the championship. He had also set fastest lap at both Monza and Watkins Glen.

The Brabham team continued to run Reutemann and Pace in 1975 and a first win didn’t look far away when Pace ran second at Buenos Aires and briefly took the lead from his teammate before spinning. That win came at Interlagos, as Pace ran third at the start, overtook Reutemann, and then benefitted from a retirement from leader Jarier to take his first career victory at his home race. Pace immediately followed this with pole at Kyalami, but he dropped three positions and finished fourth. Pace then ran second in Montjuic but crashed in avoidance of leader Rolf Stommelen. With another podium finish in Monaco, Pace ran second in the championship after five rounds and could easily have been leading it.

Carlos Pace’s impressive start to the season continued in Zolder where he led the race but fell away with handling problems, and had a quieter run of races before Silverstone, where he led for a time and ran second before crashing in the late storm, but was still classified there for another podium. The final four races of the season were quieter as Pace failed to score another point, but he still qualified second at the Nordschleife before a puncture and finished the season sixth in the championship, beaten by just 13 points by Carlos Reutemann, as Brabham claimed second in the constructors’ championship.

For 1976, Brabham switched to an Alfa Romeo engine and had a far less competitive season. His only points finishes were sixth in Jarama, fourth in Paul Ricard, where he qualified fifth, and fourth at the Nordschleife, where he qualified seventh. Third on the grid at Monza was also a standout result but Pace retired with an engine failure, but he was never in contention for a race victory. It must be said that during the season, Pace was generally faster than Carlos Reutemann, and whilst it wasn’t his teammate’s best season it was still extremely impressive considering his relative inexperience.

The Brabham was more competitive in 1977 and, after teammate John Watson had suspension problems, Carlos Pace took the lead at Buenos Aires and looked set to win before struggling with heat and losing out to Jody Scheckter. The next race came at his home track, Interlagos, and Pace made a great start to take the lead from fifth before retiring. He then qualified on the front row at Kyalami but dropped away, and it proved to be his final race in Formula 1 as he was killed in an aircraft accident two weeks later. It cut short an extremely promising career that should have yielded far more success.


So over his first two and a half seasons with Brabham, Pace got gradually closer to Reutemann until in 1976, he was generally better than him. This page shows the results of the two Brabham drivers and how Pace gained the upper hand over his final season: https://www.statsf1.com/en/carlos-re...rlos-pace.aspx

So while Reutemann was clearly not having his best season in 1976, it seems reasonable that Pace could have been as good as him at this time, and considering it was his fifth season, Pace had probably just reached his peak. Then in 1977 he looked to be outperforming John Watson in the same car before his death. So I would suggest that he would have beaten Watson over the season and would have been kept on alongside Niki Lauda in 1978.

If Pace had stuck with Brabham through their difficult 1979 season, he would have been armed with one of the fastest cars in 1980 and 1981. Given Pace beat Reutemann in 1976, it seems very likely he would have beaten him in 1981 once Reutemann was 39, and Piquet was still inexperienced when he won the championship. If anything, I think the Brabham was quicker than the Williams at this time, so I suspect Carlos Pace, had he still been driving for Brabham, would have won the 1981 championship if he had not died, and possibly 1980 too, as Piquet was definitely not at his best at this time.

I thought it was an interesting question, considering Pace is not generally mentioned among the lost talents of F1 history, but perhaps he should be. I would be interested to know what others think.

[chunterer]

Thinking out loud, Pace was one of a number of top calibre drivers the world of F1 lost in the 70s for various reasons.

I think Pace was considered one of the top guys, as was Tom Pryce. Then we also lost the 2 Swedes Nilsson or Peterson.

All four of those were world champion level material.

[coppice]

I interviewed Gordon Murray a few years ago and even after so many years had passed since Pace's death, he still felt the loss . IGM was confident Pace would have won many more Grands Prix , if not the championship . I wouldn't disagree - El Moco , as he was nicknamed , was special .

But so were Pryce and Nilsson. I followed Pryce from his F100 days and saw him take his only pole in a GP and his only (non champ ) F 1 win at Brands . He was wild , spectacular and more of a Peterson than a Prost and I was very upset indeed when he was killed. I went to the Pryce exhibition at Denbigh a few years ago and I was deeply touched . The book to read is of course David Tremayne's Lost Generation , on Pryce, Williamson and Brise which leaves many readers , me included in tears. But good as Williamson and Pryce were, I felt it was Brise who had the golden future . He was very very fast ,very smart and had (I felt ) more of the killer instinct than Tom and Roger.

Nilsson - what a driver . I saw him win an F3 race at Cadwell in - 75 ? - and just knew he had it . Later that season he crashed at Silverstone in front of us, got out of the car , wandered over (no debris fencing then ) and asked , ruefully 'Can anybody spare me a cigarette ?' The pleasure was mine. Had he lived , he'd have won more Grands Prix , I'm sure . A very , very cool guy . The Gunnar Nilsson Memorial Trophy at Donington was special too - a rare sighting of George Harrison behind the wheel of a Cooper, Fangio (in a Merc ? ) and a wonderful ProCar race for BMW M1s . This was when you stood in the same time zone as the track at Donington .

[S griffin]

Gordon has seen quite a few drivers come and go. I wouldn't put Pace with the truly great drivers, but he was certainly talented enough. He was in an era when there were quite a few top drivers, so although he had the ability to win more, it would have been tough

As you say there were quite a few lost talents from that era. Pryce certainly had the ability to do more, his car control was out of this world, as you say out of the Peterson book rather than Prost. His death showed what lax in safety was in those days. He deserves to be remembered. I have heard good things about the Lost Generation

And Nilsson too could have achieved more.

[billy bleach]

Originally Posted by S griffin

Gordon has seen quite a few drivers come and go. I wouldn't put Pace with the truly great drivers, but he was certainly talented enough. He was in an era when there were quite a few top drivers, so although he had the ability to win more, it would have been tough

As you say there were quite a few lost talents from that era. Pryce certainly had the ability to do more, his car control was out of this world, as you say out of the Peterson book rather than Prost. His death showed what lax in safety was in those days. He deserves to be remembered. I have heard good things about the Lost Generation

And Nilsson too could have achieved more.

I remember seeing Tony Brise win a race at Silverstone in his Kent Messenger March , it was either an F3 car converted to F Atlantic or the other way around - either way he was the underdog and blitzed the race My Dad knew Andy Smallman who was a designer to died in the same aircraft crash it would seem he was quite a design talent - a dark day on Arkley Golf Course

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by BTCC frog

This page shows the results of the two Brabham drivers and how Pace gained the upper hand over his final season: https://www.statsf1.com/en/carlos-re...rlos-pace.aspx

I'm not sure those stats show Pace as having an upper hand over Reutemann.

Yes - Pace scored more points over the season, but there were too many DNF's (IMO) to reach a conclusive position. There were only three races that they both finished, which I feel is too small a sample size.

Could he have won a WDC - possibly. But so many other factors would have to align that (sadly) we will never know.

Interesting question though. In 2014, Pace was rated 34th of all time so he is definitely held in high regard by many.

[BTCC frog]

I think the three real greats who were killed racing were Jim Clark, Ayrton Senna and Alberto Ascari, although none were really 'lost talents' as they all had decent careers before their deaths. Jim Clark probably would have been champion in 1968 had he survived, and probably 1970 too if he'd still been with Lotus, even if Jochen Rindt had not also died. Rindt is perhaps a bit of a lost talent but apparently he would have retired once winning the championship anyway, and even if he had not I suspect Fittipaldi would have beaten him to the 1972 championship for Lotus.

Then Senna might have won 1994 for Williams but that was such a weird season that it is difficult to really know, and had he still been driving for Williams in 1996 and 1997 he probably would have won those. Ascari is more difficult to guess about how many more titles that he could have won, but the Lancia team took pole in two of their four races before disbanding after Ascari's death, and it makes sense that they would have got their reliability together in the next few seasons and Ascari could perhaps have won 1956 or 1958 for Lancia.

The two best drivers never to win a championship that died racing would probably be Ronnie Peterson and Gilles Villeneuve. Peterson I think was slightly better, and certainly good enough to win a title, but for one reason or another it never quite happened for him. He was probably the fastest in 1973 and bettered Fittipaldi but wasn't able to take the title, and then I find it surprising he wasn't able to beat Andretti in 1978 even if he was contracted as the number two, as over their whole careers I would rate Peterson slightly higher than Andretti in F1. I believe he would have gone to McLaren in 1979, and they weren't really title contenders until John Watson in 1982, so I'm not sure Peterson would have won a title anyway even if he deserved one.

Villeneuve on the other hand I think would most likely have won the 1982 and 1983 championships for Ferrari if he had not died. The Ferrari was the fastest car in 1982 and Didier Pironi was on course to win the title before his career-ending accident, and Villeneuve had outperformed him the year before. Then Arnoux and Tambay weren't on the same level as Piquet and Prost in 1983, and the Ferrari was probably the best car and could have won with Villeneuve driving. Pironi is also something of a lost talent as he too could have won those championships without Villeneuve, but that was mainly due to the superiority of the Ferrari.

Francois Cevert is another driver deserving of a mention in regard to lost talents, as after four years of steady improvement he seemed to be almost on the level of Jackie Stewart in 1973, and was going to be the team leader at Tyrrell from 1974 had he not died at Watkins Glen. It is difficult to know, but he possibly could have been slightly better than Scheckter, and as Scheckter was a title contender in 1974 maybe Cevert might have won it for Tyrrell. Then he wouldn't really have had a chance to be champion with Tyrrell in the coming years but might have moved to another team and won one, as Scheckter did. I'm not sure what year, but think Cevert would have been champion had he survived.

There also could have been an opportunity for some of those lost in the 1950s to win one in 1961, where the Ferrari team had the dominant car, and Phil Hill was perhaps among the weaker champions. Had they not died, Peter Collins, Luigi Musso and Jean Behra may have been potential champions in that car, although Behra can perhaps be ruled at as he was sacked by Ferrari shortly before his death in 1959. In a battle between Hill, von Trips, Collins and Musso at Ferrari in 1961, I actually think Luigi Musso might have prevailed if he had matured a bit more by that stage, and would certainly rate him as a potential lost champion. In the actual season, von Trips might have won without his fatal accident, but would be unlikely to take another in the following years. Stuart Lewis-Evans was another lost talent from the era.

Of the drivers in the 1970s, Carlos Pace is someone I think could have been champion for reasons stated previously, and my reasoning for saying he beat Reutemann was more down to his qualifying superiority and better average qualifying and race positions. Tom Pryce and Gunnar Nilsson were both excellent talents from the era and while I'm not sure either would have won a championship, both could have taken multiple race wins with a longer career. I don't really know about Tony Brise and Roger Williamson but have read a very good David Tremayne book recently so will look into 'The Lost Generation.' A little before them came the likes of Lorenzo Bandini, Jo Siffert and Pedro Rodriguez who were also perhaps not quite championship level but could have taken more race wins.

Mark Donohue and Stefan Bellof were both sportscar aces that were killed before they could have much success in F1, but whether or not they could have been champions is difficult to say considering their limited time in Formula 1. Elio de Angelis is also worthy of a mention, as during their substantial time as Lotus teammates he was better than Nigel Mansell, and so would surely have been good enough to win a championship in the right car in the late 1980s and early 1990s, considering Mansell did. More recently, Jules Bianchi would probably have replaced Kimi Raikkonen at Ferrari around 2017 if he hadn't died and could have won multiple races, but I'm not convinced he would have been considered a replacement for Vettel in the way that Leclerc was.

[coppice]

There's plenty more lost talents from previous eras , given the appalling rate of injury and deaths. Moss for one would obviously have won many more GPs , and from my own era (I saw my first GP in 1971) I wonder how well Vic Elford would have done if he'd stuck in F1 - his record in 1968 was astonishing - wins Monte Carlo rally; a week later wins Daytona ; wins Targa Florio and finishes fourth in first GP , and in shed of a car too.

Ickx was the great enigma - as good as anybody from 68 -72 and then a slow decline, with the odd flash of brilliance (Brands RoC - I was there in the rain and he was mighty ) .

Ignazio Giunti - killed in a sports car race before his talent could blossom.

Helmut Koinigg - huge promise and died in ghastly circumstances

Peter Revson was a favourite - a safe pair of hands, and very quick on his day. And impossibly cool

I loved to watch both Peterson and Villeneuve - Peterson at old Woodcote was something special in the Lotus 72 - and both were very , very fast , but were impulsive , drove round car problems (rather than sorting them ) and lived for and in the moment. The fact that neither was likely to win a championship didn't diminish their box office appeal but folk like Fittipaldi and Prost were in a different league , applying brain as well as brawn to their driving.

Of all that generation , Lauda was the one I most admire. Ferrari was a basket case before he arrived but he galvanised the team . He was incredibly fast in his early days , then slowed down a little but became even smarter. I have never heard anybody downchange with such speed or metronomic precision , and I was privileged to be at Zandvoort in 1985 , for his last GP victory . Asked in 1977 if he considered Reutemann a team mate or rival Lauda briskly said 'Neither'. The bravest and smartest man I have ever seen in a racing car

[billy bleach]

[QUOTE=BTCC frog;4119913]I think the three real greats who were killed racing were Jim Clark, Ayrton Senna and Alberto Ascari, although none were really 'lost talents' as they all had decent careers before their deaths. Jim Clark probably would have been champion in 1968 had he survived, and probably 1970 too if he'd still been with Lotus, even if Jochen Rindt had not also died. Rindt is perhaps a bit of a lost talent but apparently he would have retired once winning the championship anyway, and even if he had not I suspect Fittipaldi would have beaten him to the 1972 championship

The two best drivers never to win a championship that died racing would probably be Ronnie Peterson and Gilles Villeneuve. Peterson I think was slightly better, and certainly good enough to win a title, but for one reason or another it never quite happened for him. He was probably the fastest in 1973 and bettered Fittipaldi but wasn't able to take the title, and then I find it surprising he wasn't able to beat Andretti in 1978 even if he was contracted as the number two, as over their whole careers I would rate Peterson slightly higher than Andretti in F1. I believe he would have gone to McLaren in 1979, and they weren't really title contenders until John Watson in 1982, so I'm not sure Peterson would have won a title anyway even if he deserved one.

It's well documented that Peterson signed as number 2 and understood what that meant However number 2 in Lotus 79 was a better bet than number 1 anywhere else! Andretti always gave Ronnie credit for respecting the agreement and more than once Ronnie was visibly cruising in second place. Imagine that
Today! Integrity!!!

[S griffin]

Peterson's main drawback though was his lack of technical brain. He was lucky he was team mates with both Fittipaldi and Andretti, who helped develop Lotus cars into winners. It's interesting that when he was partnered with Jacky Ickx, things went downhill, as Jacky too wasn't interested in testing and the like. That shouldn't though detract from Ronnie's great talent, he would push a dust cart 100% if he could!

[VIVA GT]

Off-topic I know, by Ronnie Peterson was a very good friend of Escort Racer Dave Brodie. (Dave was actually best man at Ronnie's wedding!)

[coppice]

And Ronnie's widow , Barbro, became an item with John Watsonfor a time . Later, sadly , she took her own life.

[S griffin]

On a happier note, I think Ronnie's daughter Nina still follows the sport closely

[chunterer]

I've often thought how mega the mid 80's might have been had the likes of Gilles, Pryce, Brise and Bellof been alive to battle Prost, Senna, Mansell, Piquet etc

[billy bleach]

Originally Posted by chunterer

I've often thought how mega the mid 80's might have been had the likes of Gilles, Pryce, Brise and Bellof been alive to battle Prost, Senna, Mansell, Piquet etc

Epic

[S griffin]

Not sure Pryce would have gone on past the early 80s, but I'm sure Brise would have. He was quick in a Prost way from what I have heard. We already had a top quality lineup in the 80s, how spoiled would we have been if Brise, Villeneuve and Bellof hadn't died