[LM24 Race] Le Mans 2010 Predictions Competition - Winner: isynge!

[PascaLM]

As being the last year winner, I congratulate isynge for his prediction. I also notice that he predicted a third place for the Peugeot n°1, which could have happened if its engine did not break down.

[dank]

I was only .039 out on my pole prediction? Wowzers!

Congratulations isynge!

[isynge]

Wow - almost never win things! Equally - cheers to everyone for their best wishes.

Surprised though that I was the only picker of Audi #9 - it strikes me that Tom K having ridden his luck so much to get his wins now has the odds stacked against him, and Allan McNish, for all he's probably been the finest sportscar driver of his generation, has no luck at all at Le Mans. Compared to that the performance of Dumas in particular through the years seemed to be very persuasive. Above all, nice to see some new names on the list of winners.

To be honest though, enjoyed the race so much that thoughts of prediction competitions etc pretty much left my head from about 0700 onwards on Sunday.

Genuinely surprised by the distance record being broken, which just seemed to sneak up on us didn't it? Thought that boat had been missed with the 2008 race, but delighted to have been present to see it happen.

[Dead-Eye]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

OK then, the predictions table is now up to date with all of your efforts. (Apologies to the one person who lost their entry as it was late - but rules is rules, I'm afraid!).

No worries...completely forgot and figured since the thread was still open I might as well give it a shot...wouldn't have been anywhere close anyway

[Ultimo]

What was the breakdown of the point system Ayse?

[Aysedasi]

Closely guarded secret....

Not really, simple points award weighted towards winner and the other two places. Smaller numbers for pole car and first retirement with sliding scale on laps completed and pole time based on tenths out. Ian was rewarded primarily for picking the winner and pole car and also getting a 'place' with #7.

I don;t want to reveal the whole detail - as it spoils my fun and someone might check my maths......

[CTD]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

Closely guarded secret....

Not really, simple points award weighted towards winner and the other two places. Smaller numbers for pole car and first retirement with sliding scale on laps completed and pole time based on tenths out. Ian was rewarded primarily for picking the winner and pole car and also getting a 'place' with #7.

I don;t want to reveal the whole detail - as it spoils my fun and someone might check my maths......

Hmm, i think we all should revolt and overthrow Ayse for election fraud .

[isynge]

Originally Posted by CTD

Hmm, i think we all should revolt and overthrow Ayse for election fraud .

Won't complain so long as nobody questions the number of postal votes from an address in South London - oops - probably shouldn't have said that.

Will cheerfully accept cash for questions.

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by isynge

Will cheerfully accept cash for questions.

Et moi aussi........

[chernaudi]

In truth, I would've thought that no one would've picked the #9 Audi, because inspite of Rocky's recent sportscar performances, Dumas and Bernhard didn't set the world on fire in the old R15, and even appearently harped on it.

But it seems that the new R15 suited them better, along with Rocky's save in the Porsche curves when he nearly wrecked the car, they would've been winners if the Pugs and the #7 Audi faultered, which happened, though what happened to the #7 Audi was a freak racing accident and still got a podium.

Can it be agreed, hindsight being 20/20, that Audi finally had equal driver line ups for the first time since at least 2007? IE, that it would've been as hard to pick from as Peugeot's line ups?

[CTD]

Originally Posted by chernaudi

In truth, I would've thought that no one would've picked the #9 Audi, because inspite of Rocky's recent sportscar performances, Dumas and Bernhard didn't set the world on fire in the old R15, and even appearently harped on it.

But it seems that the new R15 suited them better, along with Rocky's save in the Porsche curves when he nearly wrecked the car, they would've been winners if the Pugs and the #7 Audi faultered, which happened, though what happened to the #7 Audi was a freak racing accident and still got a podium.

Can it be agreed, hindsight being 20/20, that Audi finally had equal driver line ups for the first time since at least 2007? IE, that it would've been as hard to pick from as Peugeot's line ups?

The strongest Audi crew is clearly the #7 with Tom, Allan and Dindo. What cost them the victory was the unfortunate accident with the Art Car. What gave #9 the victory was a steady pace with no accidents. In other words, the luck was on their side. (which is an important thing to have if you want to win)

[gwyllion]

I don't agree with you. In the beginning of the race the #9 could match the pace of the #7 car. After 4 hours (before the encounter of TK with Priaulx), the #9 was only 10 sec behind the #7. They were not able to gain back any time during the next 20 hours. In fact, after 5 hours the gap between #7 and #9 was 2 laps and a bit and after 22 hours (just before the Oreca Peugeot retired), the gap between #7 and #9 was 2 laps and 2 minutes. So the #9 had increased the gap with 2 minutes!

Capello is starting to lose his speed. When Duval was pushing at the end to get on the podium, Capello could not respond with fast lap times. Lotterer on the hand managed to set the fastest lap time of all Audis when Wurz was closing in. Yes, the pressure cause Lotterer to make a mistake, but still...

[CTD]

Originally Posted by gwyllion

I don't agree with you. In the beginning of the race the #9 could match the pace of the #7 car. After 4 hours (before the encounter of TK with Priaulx), the #9 was only 10 sec behind the #7. They were not able to gain back any time during the next 20 hours. In fact, after 5 hours the gap between #7 and #9 was 2 laps and a bit and after 22 hours (just before the Oreca Peugeot retired), the gap between #7 and #9 was 2 laps and 2 minutes. So the #9 had increased the gap with 2 minutes!

Capello is starting to lose his speed. When Duval was pushing at the end to get on the podium, Capello could not respond with fast lap times. Lotterer on the hand managed to set the fastest lap time of all Audis when Wurz was closing in. Yes, the pressure cause Lotterer to make a mistake, but still...

Yes at times, the #9 was able to match and do better times. But we all know that the experience in the #7 car, and how they work together makes them a lot safer crew in traffic (minding that Tom's crash was a freak accident) and overall a better endurance team. Im not sure that the #8 and #9 car would be able to do the same amazing night stint that Tom did!?

[gwyllion]

Originally Posted by CTD

Im not sure that the #8 and #9 car would be able to do the same amazing night stint that Tom did!?

Sorry, to disappoint you but there was no such thing as an "amazing night stint" from Kristensen this year. He got in the car at 00:50 AM (lap 157) and out of the car at 03:40 AM (lap 221). I did some quick counting of the low lap times of his stint (see here):

time 7 8 9

3:22 0 1 1

3.23 2 2 2

3:24 6 7 5

3:25 8 12 6

[CTD]

Originally Posted by gwyllion

Sorry, to disappoint you but there was no such thing as an "amazing night stint" from Kristensen this year. He got in the car at 00:50 AM (lap 157) and out of the car at 03:40 AM (lap 221). I did some quick counting of the low lap times of his stint (see here):

Doing almost 3 hours in the dark is amazing, as far as i remember no one else did this.
Also, i can't quite figure out your table, as the cars has done a different number of laps!?

[gwyllion]

I only list the fastest lap times of Tom's stint.

A 3 hour night stint is nothing special. Lotterer in car at 01:55, out at 05:30. That is a 3.5 hour stint and his lap times were as fast as/faster than Kristensen.

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by CTD

Doing almost 3 hours in the dark is amazing, as far as i remember no one else did this.
Also, i can't quite figure out your table, as the cars has done a different number of laps!?

I think there were a number of drivers who did treble and even quadruple stints during the night. Unless it's raining, I understand a lot of the drivers actually find it easier driving at night, once you're dialled in.....

[gwyllion]

Kristensen did do the longest night stint:
#1: Davidson 00:55 AM - 03:44 AM -> duration of stint = 2:50
#2: Sarrazin 00:36 AM - 03:32 AM -> duration of stint = 2:56
#7: Kristensen 00:50 AM - 04:37 AM -> duration of stint = 3:47
#8: Lotterer 01:54 AM - 05:30 AM -> duration of stint = 3:36

[HORNDAWG]

I believe part of the equation is how many bubbles total, ÷ by the number of pints, × by Pii then + to the total # of laps².






L.P.

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by gwyllion

Kristensen did do the longest night stint:
#1: Davidson 00:55 AM - 03:44 AM -> duration of stint = 2:50
#2: Sarrazin 00:36 AM - 03:32 AM -> duration of stint = 2:56
#7: Kristensen 00:50 AM - 04:37 AM -> duration of stint = 3:47
#8: Lotterer 01:54 AM - 05:30 AM -> duration of stint = 3:36

Fair enough, but as I say, night driving, in the dry, is actually relished by many drivers....

[chernaudi]

This can be said, that Audi for the first time since at least 2007 brought three roughly equal driver lineups in terms or speed and performance, and that might have pushed Peugeot over the edge with hammering their cars, because they had not one Audi to worry about, but all three.

In deed, Dindo is getting up there in age, but he was the fastest guy on the track at Paul Ricard. Maybe Dindo was getting all he could get out of his Audi at that moment, or was told to hold station because Duval had to pit or maybe even Audi though that the Oreca car would die out like the the #2 and #1 Pugs did if pushed too hard, and we know how that ended...