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Old 15 Jun 2019, 17:07 (Ref:3910714)   #26
Irie
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Irie should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridIrie should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
Missed to look at the 4 hour mark but I guess we are on pace?
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 17:08 (Ref:3910716)   #27
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I think it was 67 laps. Waiting for official time sheet.
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 17:27 (Ref:3910736)   #28
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Irie should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridIrie should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
PDF says even 68
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 17:27 (Ref:3910737)   #29
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It's quick this year.

4 hours in
Last Year: #7 Conway, 65 laps, 4h00m59.725
This Year: #7, 68 laps, 4h00m7.628
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 17:58 (Ref:3910787)   #30
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tomerswayler should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridtomerswayler should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridtomerswayler should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
Laps per hour for the leader: 18 16 17 17


Extrapolation after 4 hours

Avg Speed so far: 407,78 laps
Median Laps/hour: 408 laps
Max Laps/hour: 428 laps
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 18:00 (Ref:3910790)   #31
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Due to the integer nature of the measurement the maximum isn't a good measure.

Mean is good, rounded up. Although it gets better as we get more pitstops in the measurement. Again as you have an integer amount of pitstops that is a factor too.
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 18:04 (Ref:3910796)   #32
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Irie should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridIrie should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
#8 is getting a bit closer again 45 seconds
EDIT: woops wrong thread
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 18:12 (Ref:3910821)   #33
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Booo, SC.
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 18:24 (Ref:3910846)   #34
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Irie should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridIrie should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
Hour 5 PDF not up yet
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 18:29 (Ref:3910854)   #35
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tomerswayler should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridtomerswayler should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridtomerswayler should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
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Due to the integer nature of the measurement the maximum isn't a good measure.

Mean is good, rounded up. Although it gets better as we get more pitstops in the measurement. Again as you have an integer amount of pitstops that is a factor too.

Absolutely, I'll add an extrapolation based on median/max/min hourly laptimes once the next PDF is available.
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 18:34 (Ref:3910864)   #36
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Hour 5 PDF not up yet
I was a bit tardy checking as I was having lunch!

Still not up.
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 18:36 (Ref:3910868)   #37
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Absolutely, I'll add an extrapolation based on median/max/min hourly laptimes once the next PDF is available.
I'll not need to rush I was doing the same. I am trying to build in an estimation about whether they need to stop for an extra or not. A bit early to consider such things though.
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 18:42 (Ref:3910887)   #38
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tomerswayler should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridtomerswayler should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridtomerswayler should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
Then I'll just compare my predictions with yours...


Let's start a competition to see who's the better predictor?!
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 18:42 (Ref:3910888)   #39
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Irie should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridIrie should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
Another sc...
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 18:53 (Ref:3910922)   #40
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Then I'll just compare my predictions with yours...


Let's start a competition to see who's the better predictor?!


No, go for it. Post away.

5 hours in:
Last Year: #7, 78 laps, 5h03m08.721
This Year: #7, 85 laps, 5h02m04.858

405 laps?
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 18:54 (Ref:3910924)   #41
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All that is before the SC.
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 18:55 (Ref:3910927)   #42
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Irie should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridIrie should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
Hour 5
85 5:02:04.858
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 18:58 (Ref:3910938)   #43
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Irie should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridIrie should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
Is in your calculations the distance change factored in?
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 19:01 (Ref:3910943)   #44
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I'll wait for the official, but I think 98, 6h00m11s.

Edit: so something like 392.
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 19:02 (Ref:3910949)   #45
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Is in your calculations the distance change factored in?
Good point.

No, but for total laps it's not really needed other than to remember that the circuit is now 3m shorter than 2010. So to break the record you need an extra lap.

Although due to this integer nature it would be possible to have a longer race distance, but lower average speed.
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 19:12 (Ref:3910982)   #46
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Irie should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridIrie should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
The last period has not gone well
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 19:17 (Ref:3911001)   #47
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The last period has not gone well

I suppose it was odds on something would happen at some point.

Record still possible, but this has demonstrated how easily it can ebb away.
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 19:34 (Ref:3911023)   #48
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Irie should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridIrie should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
Green at last
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 19:37 (Ref:3911026)   #49
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Wooo! I'll do a mid hour check.
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Old 15 Jun 2019, 19:41 (Ref:3911038)   #50
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Irie should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridIrie should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
PDF is up
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