[LM24] Porsche V's Ferrari at Le Mans (Prediction)

[arakis]

didnt know, thanks for corecting me

[The Badger]

Originally Posted by arakis

I'd do it but I feel kind of dirty to represent my self as a porsche fan.

Yeah , better not do it . Thay might send you a virus !!! lol

[RacersGroup]

What do you guys think about the laptimes this year?
I think the GT2-field will be faster than '07 but will the breakthrough the "4 minute wall"? On all tracks they raced this year so far they were quicker than last year. What's your expectation for qualifying times? I'll guess a time into the 3:59min.

[arakis]

qualifing, isnt that important and rearly do drivers push all the way in qualifing at le mans, in my oppinion if you compare monza times this year where there was about a sec advantige, le mans is about twice the lenght of monza thus I except a 2 secund improvment so somewere in the 4:01 range, but not below 4:00

[skycafe]

Added my tally for the Flying Lizards. Have loved the team since their unveiling at Sebring several years ago (miss the black car paired with the red).

robert

[RacersGroup]

Originally Posted by arakis

qualifing, isnt that important and rearly do drivers push all the way in qualifing at le mans, in my oppinion if you compare monza times this year where there was about a sec advantige, le mans is about twice the lenght of monza thus I except a 2 secund improvment so somewere in the 4:01 range, but not below 4:00

You're right!
My prediction of laptimes under 4:00 was a bit optimistic.
4:01/02 is still very quick and an improvment over last year.

[The Badger]

Originally Posted by arakis

qualifing, isnt that important and rearly do drivers push all the way in qualifing at le mans

Rubbish .... tell Corvette , AMR , Pug and Audi that and you will be a laughing stock !!!

There is always a battle for pole at Le Mans , normally the last half hour on Wednesday night , and its also important who leads the first lap , its all on TV and exposure is what its all about my little friend .

[The Badger]

Originally Posted by skycafe

Added my tally for the Flying Lizards. Have loved the team since their unveiling at Sebring several years ago (miss the black car paired with the red).

robert

I liked the black car too . Be nice to have it back and a yellow one too , for the flag you understand .

[dj4monie]

Originally Posted by The Badger

Rubbish .... tell Corvette , AMR , Pug and Audi that and you will be a laughing stock !!!

There is always a battle for pole at Le Mans , normally the last half hour on Wednesday night , and its also important who leads the first lap , its all on TV and exposure is what its all about my little friend .

We have already seen twice in the ALMS how important it is especially in GT2 to be out in FRONT of the GT2 field, get in among LMP's, a yellow flag (not impossible at Le Mans) and chi-ching your up a lap...

[arakis]

Originally Posted by The Badger

Rubbish .... tell Corvette , AMR , Pug and Audi that and you will be a laughing stock !!!

There is always a battle for pole at Le Mans , normally the last half hour on Wednesday night , and its also important who leads the first lap , its all on TV and exposure is what its all about my little friend .

you tell a gt2 team that and you will be laughed at, gt2 get almost none air time at le mans, expecialy in the first hour or so, becouse the french are a bit concetrated on the battle between audi and peugut, if you dont beleve me check the qualifing times from last lemans with the best lap and test times, I thing qualify was 4:03 while the best lap and test times were in the 4:01.5 range

[arakis]

Originally Posted by dj4monie

We have already seen twice in the ALMS how important it is especially in GT2 to be out in FRONT of the GT2 field, get in among LMP's, a yellow flag (not impossible at Le Mans) and chi-ching your up a lap...

nope you are up third a lap at most they have 3 safty cars at le mans

[vorsprung]

Originally Posted by arakis

nope you are up third a lap at most they have 3 safty cars at le mans

IIRC Le Mans has two safety cars.
And last year is bad example for qualifying, because the wednesday night rain really messed things up.

[RacersGroup]

My vote goes to the IMSA Porsche!
After i know that Neiman takes third Lizard-seat i don't see any chance for the Lizard's now .
But want a porsche victory so the best out of three is the IMSA-Porsche. So keep my fingers cross for the french team. Maybe a miracle would help for a Lizard win

[The Badger]

Bam won with 2 drivers and a token drive from a gentleman ..... but they still won . Any of the Porsche's are capable of doing it , its just harder on the drivers , but they all have age on their side .

Just look at the performance that Stuck & Wollek did in 1989 for Joest , they almost won . 2 drivers are not a worry .

Love to see Lizards do it , then Felbermayr ..... IMSA had theirs last year , but good to see them beat the hoove's off Fiat !!!

According to the poll , its still the Lizards that are the most popular . Doesnt surprise me in the least .

[dxk1]

Looking at the driver line-ups, I would have to say the Ferrari teams seem to have the best overall in GT2 with Melo/Salo/Bruni and Bell/Mullen/Sugden. The best Porsche line-up and closest to Ferrari in terms of driver quality seems to be IMSA with Narac/Leitz/Long and as defending champions, they should be considered the favorites going in.

DK

[Subaru_WRX_STi]

Bruni for Risi, so for AF Corse, it will be Vilander/Montanari/Biagi, even if I will not be surprised if Dirk Muller join the italian squad !

[Subaru_WRX_STi]

just a question, which team has more factory support, Risi or AF Corse ?

[arakis]

Originally Posted by Subaru_WRX_STi

just a question, which team has more factory support, Risi or AF Corse ?

wel the AF in AF corse stands for Amato Ferrari, the name of the owner of the company, so ..........

jist kiding he has no relation to enzo ferrari, just the same last name.

but in 2006 and 2007, if I remember corectly Af had all the best factory drivers under conctract, Melo ,Salo, muller.... but this year it seems to be urned around with risi taking all the drivers even Bruni who is still wih AF under contract, I think micheloto will be at Le Mans in force and will offer any team that may need their assistance their attention, in an article I read Michelotto is hungry for an Le Mans win, and this year smells like a full corse dinner

[Asa]

I think Risi has the best chance with their strong driver line up and factory support.

[Stephan2738]

So who’s going to win the GT2 class at Le Mans this year? Will it be Ferrari, Porsche or Spyker?

Although I am very fond of the Dutch Spyker Squadron and therefor would love to see them mix it with Ferrari and Porsche, in reality this scenario is not very likely.
So that leaves Ferrari and Porsche.

If we look at last weekend’s Le Mans testday results we can see that Ferrari topped the timing sheets but the fastest Porsche was only 0,029 seconds behind… At the testday it’s all about one fast lap but at the Le Mans race, one fast lap just ain’t enough.

The raceresults of the two Le Mans series, ALMS and LMS show that of the four races from ALMS sofar, Ferrari and Porsche both won two rounds. Of the LMS championship’s three rounds sofar, two have been won by Ferrari, and one by Porsche. So that’s pretty close as well. Ferrari having won one more round but Porsche’s wins include the closest thing to Le Mans: the Sebring 12 hours!

So it is promising to be extremely close between Ferrari and Porsche, they both have the speed, and are capable of winning races, but that’s still not enough to win Le Mans.

It is also very important that you have the best possible driversquads and tyres. And if it comes to Last Man Standing it could be important to outnumber your rivals as well.

If we look at the numbers first, there are seven Ferrari’s and “only” three Porsches. This seems to be an advantage for Ferrari. But to finish first, you first have to finish: In 2007 there were three Porsches and five Ferrari’s, two of each made it to the finish. One Ferrari and both Porsches reached the podium! So Ferrari has the upperhand in terms of numbers, but with last year’s finishingrate, they might need it too...

The Porscheteams all use Michelin tyres, Michelin tyres are also used by four Ferrari teams. Dunlop is providing tyres to two Ferrari teams, and Pirelli will shod one Ferrari.
So if Dunlop or Pirelli will have the best tyres, Ferrari will have an advantage on the tyrefront. If Michelin will bring the best tyres, neither Ferrari or Porsche will have an advantage in this area.

Last but definitely not least: The drivers, will this factor make the difference? Yes, it probably will.

If I look at the quality of the driverpairings, I honestly think that the best three squads are in a Ferrari.
But let’s see what the impact of one non-topdriver in the team is. Last year, IMSA Performance Matmut won the GT2 class with their Porsche, Raymond Narac was one of the drivers. Not to disrespect him, he did win Le Mans afterall!, but he is not a topdriver.
The winning Porsche completed 320 laps, of which Narac drove approximately 57. Let's Assume he was, on average, 5 seconds a lap slower than his teammates, him being in the car instead of a topdriver cost 285 seconds, that’s less than five minutes…
At Le Mans there are a lot of things that can happen which cost you more than five minutes to solve..

But if one of these three Ferrari’s with topdriver line-ups will have a clean troublefree race, I’m confinced we will see a Ferrari win the GT2 class!

[dxk1]

Originally Posted by Stephan2738

So who’s going to win the GT2 class at Le Mans this year? Will it be Ferrari, Porsche or Spyker?

There is already a thread for this prediction. Right now, the Lizards are leading Risi 23 to 18 in votes. Here's the link: http://tentenths.com/forum/showthread.php?t=106646

DK

[Stephan2738]

Sorry, you're right, it would have been better to post it there.

Maybe the moderator can move this post!



Consider it done - Ayse......

[Dario911]

Well, I'm not sure the best drivers are in Ferrari's teams. If look at the Porsche teams, you can find Narac (not a top driver, but a very consistent and experienced one), Lietz (one of the best) and Patrick Long (another great top driver). This for the IMSA Matmut Racing, the winner of the past year.
For the Flying Lizard, you can find Van Overbeeck (finally a top driver, no doubts), Bergmeister (probably the greatest driver of this class) and Neiman (not a top driver, but really fast, having set the better lap in tests).
Last, but not the last, the Felbermayr: here you can find Felbermayr Sr. (a gentleman with a great experience), Davison (a factory driver, capable of gerat things in ALMS) and Henzler (another factory driver, fast and consistent in ALMS).
I think there will be a great battle, but I think the winner will be the Flying Lizards.

[arakis]

Originally Posted by Dario911

Well, I'm not sure the best drivers are in Ferrari's teams. If look at the Porsche teams, you can find Narac (not a top driver, but a very consistent and experienced one), Lietz (one of the best) and Patrick Long (another great top driver). This for the IMSA Matmut Racing, the winner of the past year.
For the Flying Lizard, you can find Van Overbeeck (finally a top driver, no doubts), Bergmeister (probably the greatest driver of this class) and Neiman (not a top driver, but really fast, having set the better lap in tests).
Last, but not the last, the Felbermayr: here you can find Felbermayr Sr. (a gentleman with a great experience), Davison (a factory driver, capable of gerat things in ALMS) and Henzler (another factory driver, fast and consistent in ALMS).
I think there will be a great battle, but I think the winner will be the Flying Lizards.

nope, I have now idea where you get your information, but Seth Naiman didnt set the fastest lap times, Jorg did, my info is from http://lizardmslemans08.blogspot.com/ as for his regular laptime, last year his fastest laptime was around 4:20, and Felmbermayer is the slowest driver in the gt2 class in LeMans Series, get the timetables from http://www.ris-timing.be/ and look at driver best laps.

[dxk1]

Originally Posted by Dario911

Well, I'm not sure the best drivers are in Ferrari's teams. If look at the Porsche teams, you can find Narac (not a top driver, but a very consistent and experienced one), Lietz (one of the best) and Patrick Long (another great top driver). This for the IMSA Matmut Racing, the winner of the past year.
For the Flying Lizard, you can find Van Overbeeck (finally a top driver, no doubts), Bergmeister (probably the greatest driver of this class) and Neiman (not a top driver, but really fast, having set the better lap in tests).
Last, but not the last, the Felbermayr: here you can find Felbermayr Sr. (a gentleman with a great experience), Davison (a factory driver, capable of gerat things in ALMS) and Henzler (another factory driver, fast and consistent in ALMS).
I think there will be a great battle, but I think the winner will be the Flying Lizards.

Well, I do believe that the Ferraris do have the better driver line-ups, but as we all know, you still have to finish the race to win. The Porsche line-ups are all solid and are very capable of winning. It should be a great race to the end. I believe either Virgo or Risi will win. The trick for Risi is to realize that this is a 24 hour race and you don't have to make dumb passes early in the race to win. Are you listening Jaime and Mika?

DK