Alonso's Magic Number/WDC possibilities (merged)

LampCord · 6 Jul 2005, 18:17 (Ref:1348963)

With 9 races to go its 5 wins + 6 pts.

Kimi has to start winning and soon and hope FA has a few bad outings. Its looking more bleak with each passing day. If it wasn't for bad luck he wouldn't have any at all. An engine failure losing 10 places on the grid but he finishes 2nd? You have to think he may have won from P3!

Shumi looks like he may still take 3rd which I feel is pretty good considering the car and tire issues this year. Of course many of us will be subtracting 10 pts from his score at the end which is probably more than fair.

**Aysedasi** · 6 Jul 2005, 18:30 (Ref:1348971)

Well its certainly a whole lot more entertaining than in most recent years, that's for sure!

BootsOntheSide · 6 Jul 2005, 19:02 (Ref:1348991)

For those of you who didn't see the origianl thread on this subject, the point is that if Alonso takes 5 wins and 6 further points, he is champion even if Raikkonen wins the other 4 races and is 2nd in the 5 Fernando does win. That would leave them level on points, but Alonso having more wins.

Considering the nature of this season (that McLaren have the fastest car, but a tendency not to finish, whereas Alonso has only dropped out once (not counting Indy) and that was his fault), I can't help but thinkimg that the opposite comparison is more appropriate - what would Alonso need to do if Kimi won every race? Off the top of my head, 8 2nd places would leave him level on points but losing out on countback, so he would need 65 points out of the 72 possible from 9 2nd places.

Don K · 6 Jul 2005, 19:11 (Ref:1348997)

Quote:

Originally Posted by BootsOntheSide

Considering the nature of this season (that McLaren have the fastest car, but a tendency not to finish, whereas Alonso has only dropped out once (not counting Indy) and that was his fault), I can't help but thinkimg that the opposite comparison is more appropriate - what would Alonso need to do if Kimi won every race? Off the top of my head, 8 2nd places would leave him level on points but losing out on countback, so he would need 65 points out of the 72 possible from 9 2nd places.

Actually, Alonso is only 24 points ahead.

So if Kimi wins each of the remaining 9 races (9*10= 90 points), Alonso needs at least (90-24+1=) 67 points to become world champion.

(For instance, 8*p2+1*p6, or 7*p2+1*p3+1*p4)

mclaren_fanatic · 7 Jul 2005, 00:03 (Ref:1349203)

Anything can happen in the final part of the season. It will only take Alonso to maybe crash out twice and Kimi win and its all on

Paarma · 7 Jul 2005, 00:43 (Ref:1349211)

I think it's still too early to start calculating. Well, technicly it's never too early, but I think it would be a shame if Renault will start playing safe at this stage. After four more races maybe, but not yet.

Gt_R · 7 Jul 2005, 06:33 (Ref:1349299)

It's Alonso's WDC to lose.

Glen · 7 Jul 2005, 08:11 (Ref:1349353)

Another way to look at it - Kimi just HAS to win. Each time he fails to do so the situation becomes much more difficult and unlikely. Renault should defnititely continue as they have been - which is actually in a fairly cautious manner. Reliability is everything now for Renault, whereas McLaren will be forced to carry on taking risks mechanically and will need a hell of a lot of luck to make their Championship hopes come good.

maximus · 7 Jul 2005, 08:22 (Ref:1349357)

Its a bit like Williams and Mclaren in 1991 isn't it. Sennas in front with a reliable but not as effective car, and Mansell is behind with a quick but slightly fragile car.

IL LEONE · 7 Jul 2005, 08:23 (Ref:1349358)

As said before it' Alonso's to lose but everything's still possible at this stage, perish the thought but Schumacher for the title 2005!

LampCord · 7 Jul 2005, 14:48 (Ref:1349633)

If Alonso keeps finishing on the podium it will be tough to lose.

The problem Kimi has is not that Alonso is faster (had Kimi run light he likely would have been pole) its that Alonso keeps finishing races and keeps finishing them on the podium.

If KR finishes a close 2nd he's going to look back on this season as the season that could have been. If his suspension doesn't collapse with 2 laps left, if he doesn't have an engine failure forcing him 10 spots back, etc. Its been a bunch of little things that have all added up to the 24 point lead.

But it seems when he's not dogged with problems, KR with his McLaren is a little faster than FA in his Renault.

And that's what makes these final 9 interesting. Kimi needs a win with an FA DNF and then suddenly this thing is going to be real exciting.

Glen · 7 Jul 2005, 15:10 (Ref:1349649)

McLaren undoubtedly have the fastest car - and one of the fastest drivers. But the car is pushed to the absolute limit and seems marginal on reliability to me - the problem is that McLaren cannot afford to play it safe on the engineering side because they won't have the speed advantage.

FA should carry on exactly as he is - even if things get tight it is very unlikely that Kimi will score max points at every race - I would say it is a reasonably unlikely that Kimi will finish every race actually, let alone win.

BootsOntheSide · 7 Jul 2005, 19:43 (Ref:1349855)

Having a faster car trying to close a championship gap always makes things more itneresting, especially when the faster car is less reliable. I think Alonso will hang on to by less than 10 points, but I can't wait to find out. I'm already worried that I'm unlikely to be in fornt of a TV for the final round, let's put it that way.

Shoe-maker · 7 Jul 2005, 20:13 (Ref:1349869)

I still think Alonso has it in the bag. It would take something spectacular to stop him now.

LampCord · 8 Jul 2005, 17:55 (Ref:1350434)

I could see this Alonso / Raikonen rivalry extending over a number of years. They are both very young and very quick and with 2 superb teams. KR was within one race of the WDC just a couple years back. Throw JPM into the mix and we could have some VERY exciting championship races over the next few years.

Of course, as always, MS isn't one to idly stand by and watch others win...

Marbot · 8 Jul 2005, 18:38 (Ref:1350461)

Fernando will have to take both hands off the steering wheel next time he wins in order to show us his number of victories.It could prove to be his undoing.

thejester · 9 Jul 2005, 00:14 (Ref:1350698)

Quote:

Originally Posted by martyn bott

Fernando will have to take both hands off the steering wheel next time he wins in order to show us his number of victories.It could prove to be his undoing.

thankyou for that.

Yes, I look forward to what may become known as 'the Alonso/Raikonnen years'.

It is Fonzie's WDC to lose. How key will Kimi's wheel failure be at the end of the day?

Hazza · 9 Jul 2005, 04:23 (Ref:1350777)

One Ironic point is that Kimi claimed that missing the USGP could have ruined his championship hopes...but by all chances it looks like Kimi's engine would have failed during the GP...

Bleu · 9 Jul 2005, 06:25 (Ref:1350797)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hazza

One Ironic point is that Kimi claimed that missing the USGP could have ruined his championship hopes...but by all chances it looks like Kimi's engine would have failed during the GP...

No. In USA he had same engine as in Canada, and he started French GP weekend with new engine (new version of the engine as well)

LampCord · 11 Jul 2005, 14:44 (Ref:1352672)

Well now after Silverstone its down to 4 wins + 6 pts for FA with 8 races to go.

Finishing 2nd with Kimi 3rd was effectively like a win with a KR 2nd as far as the magic number goes.

Its got to be very frustrating for KR who is clearly the fastest on the track but he keeps losing 10 places due to engine failure.

Had he won the last two races, it would still be tough but possible, now its looking more and more like he'll need 2 and possibly 3 DNF's out of FA with 8 races to go. Seems pretty unlikely at this point!

LampCord · 25 Jul 2005, 14:34 (Ref:1362985)

With 7 races to go, it has become real simple: 3 wins, period.

While that sounds like a lot, winning almost half of the remaining races, it means all he has to do is win 3, and even if Kimi comes in 2nd in all 3 of those and wins the other 4 AND Alonso DNF's the other 4, he still gets the title.

Barring a season ending injury or penalty, it appears to be in the bag.

Another way to look at it would be if Kimi won all 7 remaining races and Alonso finished 4th in each race, Kimi would still win by only 1 pt.

The following racers have been officially eliminated:

Jenson Button
Felipe Massa
Tiago Monteiro
Alexander Wurz
Jacques Villeneuve
Narain Karthikeyan
Christijan Albers
Pedro de la Rosa
Christian Klien
Patrick Friesacher
Vitantonio Liuzzi

Plus anyone with 0 pts. Apperently you don't show up on the driver's championship list if you have no points even if you've finished a race.

Gerben24 · 25 Jul 2005, 15:13 (Ref:1363015)

The question now is, where is FA going to clinch the title. It might well be Monza...

LampCord · 25 Jul 2005, 19:42 (Ref:1363187)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gerben24

The question now is, where is FA going to clinch the title. It might well be Monza...

Its hard to guess because of Kimi. One week he wins, the next week he has some kind of failure. If he goes on a run of wins this thing could stretch out a long time. If he has another DNF, this thing could end real quick.

I'm going to guess 4 races, that puts it at the Belgium GP, Spa.

Dutton · 26 Jul 2005, 07:36 (Ref:1363509)

I would like to see Kimi win a few, just for the sake of the possibility: funny things do happen at times......However, when it happens does not really bother me too much. Really, my concern is how Ferrari and Michael get on: hopefully both securing 3rd in the their respective championships (although nabbing second in either, by virtue of their reliability and the unreliability of opponents would be a wonderful bonus).

Good races for the rest of the year, regardless of the results, would do nicely when it comes down to it.

Marbot · 26 Jul 2005, 10:01 (Ref:1363618)

Quote:

Originally Posted by martyn bott

Fernando will have to take both hands off the steering wheel next time he wins in order to show us his number of victories.It could prove to be his undoing.

You see,FA almost lost it there for a moment.

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