[LM24] OK, So What Do We Talk About Between Last Year's Le Mans and Next Year's.....?

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by Michel Vaillant

French prime minister announces actually the return of gauges at 5000 peoples for outside events.
The decision to postpone LM must be taken in the middle of winter (last year, at the beginning of march). However, the health situation has no chance of improving by then... And last year, crowd gauges remained in effect until early summer. So, i think this year again, LM will not take place in June

Silly question maybe, but why do you think the health situation has no chance of improving in the next 5 months?

[Simmi]

If omicron rips through Europe like it's done through the UK then come the end of March there will be very few people who have not had some variant or another of COVID within the last 6 months. That might be a slight exaggeration but maybe not too far off?

Could we actually be in a better situation come the summer if the hospitalisation rates are down and vaccinations get higher? I've had a COVID Xmas and know quite a few others who have - but I've not heard about anyone struggling with this variant.

[Michel Vaillant]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

Silly question maybe, but why do you think the health situation has no chance of improving in the next 5 months?

In the next 5 months, situation will probably pretty good, but the decision to postpone would be taken early, probably in February or first days of March (last year, the announce was 4th march). And the organiser won't want to take any chances. Postpone 24 can't be a last minute decision... So, in February or march, the situation will be the same as today in my opinion.
And last year, remember, in France restrictions were in place beginning of July, Historic Racing in Bugatti circuit was practically behind closed doors, yet the sanitary situation was pretty good.

[Aysedasi]

But what is the situation now in France with vaccinations - how many of the population have had their third (booster) jab?

[Michel Vaillant]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

But what is the situation now in France with vaccinations - how many of the population have had their third (booster) jab?

73% full vaccination, 30% with third
But 100 000 cases each day... much, too much so that our authorities leave us alone. For our gov, red alert was 50 000...

[Michel Vaillant]

23 december :
At least one jab : 78,1%
Fully : 72,9%
Third : 29,8%

(the new rules at the end of January will cause an increase in the number of first doses because there will be a vaccination pass, the negative tests will no longer be sufficient to go to a train etc.).

But anyway, it's the number of cases that dictates the french health policy. It's quite simple : high number of cases = strong restrictions. And the vaccine doesn't really stop the virus from circulating, so...

[S griffin]

Fingers crossed the situation improves so enough Brits can make the trip across to see the great race

[Kpy]

Originally Posted by Michel Vaillant

23 december :
At least one jab : 78,1%
Fully : 72,9%
Third : 29,8%

(the new rules at the end of January will cause an increase in the number of first doses because there will be a vaccination pass, the negative tests will no longer be sufficient to go to a train etc.).

But anyway, it's the number of cases that dictates the french health policy. It's quite simple : high number of cases = strong restrictions. And the vaccine doesn't really stop the virus from circulating, so...

I'm afraid I agree with your thoughts on whether and when the race will be held.
Ditto for the Classic scheduled for end June/1st weekend of July.
I'm triple vaccinated and expect to be boosted again in the spring of 2022, but with virtually 190k new cases in France yesterday ...

[Kpy]

Originally Posted by Simmi

If omicron rips through Europe like it's done through the UK then come the end of March there will be very few people who have not had some variant or another of COVID within the last 6 months. That might be a slight exaggeration but maybe not too far off?

Could we actually be in a better situation come the summer if the hospitalisation rates are down and vaccinations get higher? I've had a COVID Xmas and know quite a few others who have - but I've not heard about anyone struggling with this variant.

Several members of my family had the virus over Christmas in the UK, despite being vaccinated, without needing hospital care, but France currently has 3,333 Covid patients in a serious/critical condition. With 179,807 new cases yesterday, that's what is influencing the minds of the ministers who frame the regulations here in France.

[Truckosaurus]

I think we all said "things will be ok by summer" in early 2020 and 2021 and both times we didn't have a 'normal' event, so it would be a brave fortune teller who makes any predictions for 2022 at this stage.

[AstonGeoff]

Originally Posted by Truckosaurus

I think we all said "things will be ok by summer" in early 2020 and 2021 and both times we didn't have a 'normal' event, so it would be a brave fortune teller who makes any predictions for 2022 at this stage.

Couldn't agree more, three things certain in life, Death, Taxes and Covid restriction changes.

[bella]

my opinion is that mithering about it in advance is pointless. get excited for the event, not the timescales.

and by that time all of france will have had it anyway

in all seriousness, there’s a good window across the last weekend in july/first weekend in august that i suspect has been kept clear for a reason.

[Anyopenroad]

Originally Posted by bella

there’s a good window across the last weekend in july/first weekend in august that i suspect has been kept clear for a reason.

Last weekend of Jul is Spa 24. First weekend of Aug I'm on holiday. So both of those are out .

[CTD]

Originally Posted by Anyopenroad

Last weekend of Jul is Spa 24. First weekend of Aug I'm on holiday. So both of those are out .

First weekend of Aug is definitely out for me as well. If I choose to go to Le Mans, then I probably need to find a new place to come home to

[CTD]

In all seriousness and not to be the doom and gloom here, but with so many getting COVID now, the virus will mutate quicker into new variants.
This will of course mean less deadly/serious variants, but potentially still serious enough for lockdowns.

[Michel Vaillant]

Last year, from first days of July to last days of July, situation was relatively clear in Europe, despite Delta.
Tour de France, Euro football… was with crowd.
For LM, I think 11/12 June is early. Le Mans Classic dates are better.
But in each cases, there will probably gauges and some restrictions…

[Michel Vaillant]

Originally Posted by CTD

In all seriousness and not to be the doom and gloom here, but with so many getting COVID now, the virus will mutate quicker into new variants.
This will of course mean less deadly/serious variants, but potentially still serious enough for lockdowns.

Yes, i think more generally present vaccines can’t permit to refund a real « normal life » as before march 2020 , and a 24h edition as 2019… to see a LM race with 250000 peoples, probably we need to wait new generations of vaccines, more efficients, in few years maybe…

[Anyopenroad]

Originally Posted by Michel Vaillant

Le Mans Classic dates are better.
But in each cases, there will probably gauges and some restrictions…

Michel what would be another word for “gauges”? I don’t know what that refers to. Thanks!

[Michel Vaillant]

Originally Posted by Anyopenroad

Michel what would be another word for “gauges”? I don’t know what that refers to. Thanks!

Oh sorry, in French the word is “jauge”, used to say a limit for crowd in a places during Covid. In English the appropriate translation is maybe « dipstick » . Like an oil dipstick (« jauge d’huile »)

[Simmi]

Originally Posted by Michel Vaillant

Last year, from first days of July to last days of July, situation was relatively clear in Europe, despite Delta.
Tour de France, Euro football… was with crowd.
For LM, I think 11/12 June is early. Le Mans Classic dates are better.
But in each cases, there will probably gauges and some restrictions…

All true. But we'll be into the third year of the pandemic but the time LM rolls around. I think everyone knows restrictions are not a sustainable way to deal with each new variant long-term. That is what gives me hope that people will push towards normality and living with the virus. I don't know what the turning point will be where that sinks in but I hope that the end of this omicron wave will be it.

[Aysedasi]

Particularly as Omicrom, although very contagious, appears to have less dramatic health effects, taken together with the state of vaccinations. I'm certainly not ruling out that the situation will have 'calmed down' by June.

[whitemr2]

I,'m confident it will take place as sceduled.

[GT6]

I am sure everything will be alright, we will all be there in June, and hopefully we will be in our usual places rather that stuck in socially distanced camps like last year

[Michel Vaillant]

Omicron is less dangerous than Delta but more contagious
In fact, hospitals are under high pressure in both cases : more dangerous but less contagious, or less dangerous but more contagious despite vaccines (with, at the end, more and more severe cases). In both situation, no way for big events and « normal life » , what is actually the opinion of French authorities at the moment.

[S griffin]

Certainly signs are things should improve in 2022 and that we could move out of this pandemic. Omicron has muddled things a bit, but as long as plenty are vaccinated, there shouldn't be too much of a problem, even there are still a few unknowns atm.

We'll see, there are still five months for the situation to improve. Fingers crossed for you guys