Predictions for 2014 (WEC and Le Mans 24h)

[Aysedasi]

And so say all of us!!!

[Victor_RO]

Originally Posted by Simmi

I just want a season of good racing - particularly at the big one.

Hear hear to that.

And as few controversies and dramas as humanly possible. Particularly when it comes to TUSC...

[Mal]

Originally Posted by Simmi

Hope you Toyota optimists are right.

I just want a season of good racing - particularly at the big one.

I agree - but the cynic in me says that Toyota needs to be in the mix to make Audi and Porsche truly race each other.

If Audi and Porsche are much faster I can see the politics coming in to decide who wins. All the time Toyota are in the fight that cant really happen - therefore the best way to get the best racing if for Toyota to at least be competitive with the other two.

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by Victor_RO

And as few controversies and dramas as humanly possible. Particularly when it comes to TUSC...

Is that contentious then? I must have missed that......

[jasonjessica09]

Originally Posted by CTD

I want Tom K to win his 10th Le Mans victory and end his career on top and as the World Champion.
So my prediction is that this will happen, but not without a close fight with Toyota and Porsche.

If Tom K wins Le Mans in 2014, he'll retire at the end of the year I betcha. Otherwise he'll continue for a couple years until he gets it.

[TF110]

Wasnt Toyota competitive in 2012 and 2013? Dont have any worries about their competitiveness. I just hope Viper and Vette are more competitive at LeMans this time.

[Simmi]

Originally Posted by TF110

Wasnt Toyota competitive in 2012 and 2013?

Yes, but not at the most important times.

If they repeat that cycle again and only start contesting races post-LM, that has to go down as a failure.

[Simmi]

Originally Posted by Mal

I agree - but the cynic in me says that Toyota needs to be in the mix to make Audi and Porsche truly race each other.

If Audi and Porsche are much faster I can see the politics coming in to decide who wins. All the time Toyota are in the fight that cant really happen - therefore the best way to get the best racing if for Toyota to at least be competitive with the other two.

I definitely see where the cynicism comes from, but I don't think it will be a factor.

We've got a Porsche squad which even internally (LMP1 to GT) have fallen out. You have an Audi team who lets its teams race on even when the race is won.

I think when you put them together it will be a massive rivalry, bigger than anything we've had in the modern era.

[Mal]

Originally Posted by Simmi

I definitely see where the cynicism comes from, but I don't think it will be a factor.

We've got a Porsche squad which even internally (LMP1 to GT) have fallen out. You have an Audi team who lets its teams race on even when the race is won.

I think when you put them together it will be a massive rivalry, bigger than anything we've had in the modern era.

Agree with that, the rivalry within the team and driver squads will be immense.... but it all depends on the instructions from the senior management of VAG.

As I said if Toyota is in the mix then the opportunity is reduced or even removed.

Maybe it is not the cynic in me..... but the businessman thinking of maximizing the return.

[TF110]

Originally Posted by Simmi

Yes, but not at the most important times.

If they repeat that cycle again and only start contesting races post-LM, that has to go down as a failure.

They used 2012 tires in Silverstone, that caused their issue of not double stinting. The 2013 car in Spa had a hybrid issue while they were contesting for a win. They raced Audi very well at LeMans even though they were down by a good deal of power. So imo, that doesn't seem like they were only competitive in unimportant times.

2014 wont be the same because theyll have the new cars from the first race, theres no reason to sandbag so pushing from rd 1 is all youll see. They have the opportunity to have more than twice the hybrid power as well. Im not seeing the reasoning in them being uncompetitive. Maybe Im wrong and theyll make a dog of a car though.

[Simmi]

Originally Posted by TF110

They used 2012 tires in Silverstone, that caused their issue of not double stinting. The 2013 car in Spa had a hybrid issue while they were contesting for a win. They raced Audi very well at LeMans even though they were down by a good deal of power. So imo, that doesn't seem like they were only competitive in unimportant times.

I get what you're saying. I'm looking at it from the point of view that they didn't get the results when it really mattered - leaving them without a chance at any silverware in 2013.

You can point to whatever reasoning you like. The 'what ifs' don't change the results in the record books.

I'm a fan of Toyota so I hope they don't put on the wrong tyres, have key parts break, or be down on power in their biggest race in 2014.

[Aysedasi]

Let's face it, we all had far too high expectations of Toyota. We expect manufacturers to be right on it out of the box these days and get uptight when they don't take it to a team which has been close to invincible for an incredibly long time. Personally I thought the Toyota performance at Le Mans last year was bloody good. It has been a rule of thumb for a very long time now that you can start think about winning Le Mans on your third visit. Fingers crossed.....

[Acid09]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

Let's face it, we all had far too high expectations of Toyota. We expect manufacturers to be right on it out of the box these days and get uptight when they don't take it to a team which has been close to invincible for an incredibly long time. Personally I thought the Toyota performance at Le Mans last year was bloody good. It has been a rule of thumb for a very long time now that you can start think about winning Le Mans on your third visit. Fingers crossed.....

While much of what you say is true, there are several reasons why people expected a lot from Toyota.

First is that they have comprehensive F1-sized facilities at their disposal. People simply expect a former F1 manufacturer outfit to be be able to build a competitive LMP1 car...and rightly so if you ask me.

The other aspect is that Peugeot was pretty much instantly competitive and set a high bar for manufacturers trying to beat Audi. Granted, there were both reliability and strategy issues during their first few years but the speed was there from day one.

Given how Toyota is seen as a much bigger manufacturer with a more sophisticated racing operation (see above) than Peugeot, I can see why people expected a lot from Toyota.

[Aysedasi]

Yes, fair points, but in my view, unrealistic.

[CTD]

Originally Posted by Acid09

While much of what you say is true, there are several reasons why people expected a lot from Toyota.
First is that they have comprehensive F1-sized facilities at their disposal. People simply expect a former F1 manufacturer outfit to be be able to build a competitive LMP1 car...and rightly so if you ask me.
The other aspect is that Peugeot was pretty much instantly competitive and set a high bar for manufacturers trying to beat Audi. Granted, there were both reliability and strategy issues during their first few years but the speed was there from day one.
Given how Toyota is seen as a much bigger manufacturer with a more sophisticated racing operation (see above) than Peugeot, I can see why people expected a lot from Toyota.

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

Yes, fair points, but in my view, unrealistic.

Where the biggest difference between Peugeot and Toyota lies, is in the start of the Le Mans projects
The Toyota approach and Peugeot approach where different. Peugeot build their entire Le Mans program up from scratch, focused on that.
Peugeot hired people directly for the Le Mans program and ran everything themselves.
Toyota opted differently, they adapted their F1 program and remaining personal to Le Mans, and brought in Oreca to get the knowledge they needed about Le Mans, and integrated them into their team.

I think Peugeot spend a much larger amount to create a good foundation, where as Toyota saved a lot from simply adapt and integrate.

So the expectations towards Toyota is tough to say is unrealistic or realistic. Personally when a Manufacture says they expect to win Le Mans within 2 years, I think it should be realistic to expect them to do this.

[Aysedasi]

Did Toyota say that?

Were they counting 2012?

[truebeliever]

Mazda is prepared to wipe out clean ALMS ( like stealing baby candy) with an LPM2 (ALMS is a LPM2 exclusive story now)...

Hmmmm, not sure whether you should have consumed so much hallucinatory liquid over the festive season! Are we talking the same Speedsource Mazda deal, or is there another?

Somehow cannot see them "wiping out clean" the P2 class, at least not from the testing promise Perhaps they should stick to what they have experience in, GT and rotary engines.

[CTD]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

Did Toyota say that?

Were they counting 2012?

By saying you don't expect to win in your first year, you kinda say you expect it in the second

[Aysedasi]

But wasn't 2013 supposed originally to be their first year, but they rushed to be there in 12 after the Pugs pulled out?

[Acid09]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

But wasn't 2013 supposed originally to be their first year, but they rushed to be there in 12 after the Pugs pulled out?

No, they didn't plan on doing a full WEC season in 2012 but their Le Mans debut was scheduled.

[Bandicoot17]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

Let's face it, we all had far too high expectations of Toyota.

I think they've been disappointing this last season (2013), but 2012 they were on it straight away really. After LM they won 3 races to Audi's 2.
Toyota started slow again but after LM they were quick again.
I wonder if the use/application of information from their F1 participation gives them any sort advantage on the newer F1 circuits such as Shanghai and Bahrain (Hence why they are always on pace here)

Hopefully they're right on pace this time, they'll have a new car and hopefully a sprint DF package, which if they'd had at Silverstone this year they may have put up more of a fight against the Audi's.

[TF110]

Heres a fun fact, their 2012 car at Silverstone was less than a half second off the ultimate pace of the fastest Audi. Once they started using the 2013 tires there was no issue. I know I sound like a broken record or a fanboy, but I don't care. Imo diesel was and still is favored heavily, thats the difference between Peugeot's effort and Toyota's. Not building up from scratch or converting F1 personnel to endurance. A fuel more efficient and more powerful was allowed to dominate for nearly a decade. Pescarolo, Rebellion... Aston Martin stood no chance. Toyota kept up thanks to the part time use of the tmg facilities and the superior hybrid. I can only say Im really looking forward to this year!

[gustavobamba]

With all the changes in P1, what would be the top speed´s in Le Mans???

With all the changes they might be even less than last year ( 330km/h).

My predictions is that Audi will be the faster´s, then Toyota, 3rd Rebellion and last Porsche. I even think that Porsche would not reach 320 km/h.

Audi + - 330 km/h
Toyota + -325 km/h
Rebellion + - 320 km/h
Porsche + - 315 km/h

[TF110]

I think Toyota will be the fastest on the straights. Rebellion will be fast as well imo. The NA engines will be good for top speed. Plus Toyotas hybrid power will be good for a big addition in power. I bet all the lmp1 cars will be around 330-340kmh. Less drag this year with slimmer cars.

[CTD]

Originally Posted by TF110

I think Toyota will be the fastest on the straights. Rebellion will be fast as well imo. The NA engines will be good for top speed. Plus Toyotas hybrid power will be good for a big addition in power. I bet all the lmp1 cars will be around 330-340kmh. Less drag this year with slimmer cars.

Power (Engines and Hybrid) systems hasnt been the deciding factor in top speed since the 70-80's!
The downforce levels will be what is deciding. So my guess will be the Team with most mechnical grip, as they can sacrifice downforce with the smallest loss. (Like Peugeot vs. Audi) will be the fastest.

Your point about higher top speed because of slimmer cars is invalid, as the cars also generate less downforce and less mechanical grip. Therefor its likely that teams will compensate the decrease in drag with an increase of downforce levels to an equal Drag/Downforce level to todays cars.

With that being said, I agree with you that Toyota will likely have the highest top speed, if they carry on with the more "conventional" design language of the TS030. (Like the 908, sacrificing downforce for a more sleek and less draggy bodyshape)