[LM24] The 2021 Annual Le Mans Prediction Thread

[PascaLM]

Here we go for the Ten-Tenths predictions contest of the 24 Hours of Le Mans 2021.

Past winners:
2008 - cptkablamo
2009 - PascaLM
2010 - isynge
2011 - Joe Taylor
2012 - Duff_44
2014 - Truckosaurus
2015 - TRspitfirefan
2016 - vincegail
2017 - Babapapa
2018 - bentley03 and joeb
2019 - nasdriv87
2020 - Adam43*

New this year :
No prediction about LMP2 or GTE due to a lack of diversity and novelty (only C8.R).
I have slightly BoPed the calculations (yes, a BoP). There is less difference between the maximum numbers of points you can gain in each item : 100 for the pole, 80 for the laps, 120 for the podium. The points distribution is larger. If you are far from the pole or the laps, you get more points than in previous years. 100 points for the exact pole and linearly down to 0 within a delta of 4 seconds. 80 points for the exact laps number down to 0 within a delta of 40 laps (deltas in absolute value).
And errr, and, and errr.... the highest speed during the race in mph or kph as you want. 50 points max.

So you are cordially invited to record your answers to the following :

1. LMH Hyperpole – time only – to nearest thousandth
e.g.
3:41.442
If the track is declared wet during this entire LMH Hyperpole session, we will consider the best lap of all other qualification sessions.

2. Highest speed in the Hunaudières, restaurant, during the race, to nearest tenth
e.g. 251.8 mph
A radar is usually posted there. The speed will be the WEC's official result. We consider 1 mph = 1.609 kph.

3. Overall winner, second and third – car #'s and laps completed by the winner only
e.g.
1. Oreca #32 – 312 laps
2. Oreca #26
3. Toyota #7

Scoring :
pole time :
100 - (25 x |pole-prediction|), i.e if you are one second and 908 thousands from the pole, you get 52.3 points.
0 point if |pole-prediction|> 4 seconds

Highest speed :
50 - (2.5 x |speed_kph - prediction|)
0 point if |speed-prediction| > 20 km/h (12.43 mph). You can give your prediction in mph or kph. All speed predictions will be convert in kph for calculation.

Podium : you can have points if you choose a car of the final podium in an other position

	predicted 1st	predicted 2nd	predicted 3rd
winner	60 points	30 points	15 points
2nd	20 points	40 points	20 points
3rd	5 pts	10 points	20 points

Winner's laps
80 - (2 x |laps-prediction|) and 0 point if |laps-prediction|>40 laps

You can criticize this points system or give some suggestions but please after this year results are published.

Please respect some rules :

1. No surplus comments, no funnies, no additions – just your predictions. We will remove anything else that you add !

2. No amendments are permitted unless you can satisfy us that you made a genuine mistake or if one of the cars included in your prediction is withdrawn before race start.

3. Any queries about the competition to PascaLM or Aysedasi by PM please.

4. The competition will close at 9 pm (UK time) on Tuesday 17th August and the thread will be closed too.

5. Let's thank again Adam43 for having lead a simple and perfect competition last year.

N.B. This is just a bit of fun which we do each year and it is not intended to replace or supplant any other regular predictions competition.