[stat]Average points per race

[Schummy]

Average points per race (APR) is an indication about how well a driver/car is doing and, perhaps more importantly, how many points he can get in the championship.

I have done some calculations, using some "a priori" data. It is needed because we have just three GPs so far, and this is too few data to draw conclusions.

This graph shows the evolution of APR from before the season to Bahrain.

http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/5...ragebahhd5.gif

The green line is a reference signaling the usual level for true title contenders. Colors are asociated to main color in each team (dark red is Trulli's Toyota). Solid line is for the first driver, dashed for the second one.

• Alonso and Raikkonen are very close, and they would be the title contenders so far.
• Hamilton is climbing uphill quickly (let's see if he goes on or not).
• Fisi/Renault is losing expectations as season pass by. Renault retains some credibility because of their last season.
• Heidfeld is converging towards Fisi in terms of expectations.

[Schummy]

This bayesian approach is built using an a priori APR calculated as follows:

If a driver is in the same team as last season, his a priori APR is last season's average. If he has changed team, things are more tricky: it is averaged between his APR last season and this year car's APR last season (modified).

For example FA's is the average between his APR and McLaren APR last season. The "modified" APR of the car is using a funny result ("Broken Stick Theorem"), who, loosely used here, says that in a team the best driver gets about double points of the worst driver. So for Alonso I have used the "best driver" APR for McLaren last year. It sounds complicated, I cannot negate it

Kubica's and Hamilton's cases are special because they don't have complete driver data for last season, so they have been averaged with a different weighting scheme.

[Schummy]

Updating the calculations after GP Britain.

Graph after GP Britain

Hamilton now has the higher expected points. Alonso is still near, though. Both Ferrari drivers are below the "contender" line (dashed green), so they have to improve even more.

Heidfeld is consolidating his 5th position (obviously far below the top quartet), Kubica seems able to pass Fisi for 6th place. Kovalainen is improving, maybe I will have to include him in next GPs.