[LM24 Race] A quick prediction writeup

[EsbenT]

Bit late, but I posted it on my facebook with minutes to spare, so I'm allowing myself to post it here as we're into the race already


LMP1: #1 Peugeot (Wurz/Gene/Davidson)

Peugeot have the outright pace advantage this year. Even if the Audis weren't showing us their full hand this week, I still don't think they are going to be able to keep the Peugeots from motoring off into the distance after le drapeau tricolore drops at 15:00 hours. The question then is, which one? Obviously Sébastien Bourdais is in pole position with the quickest time, but that needn't necessarily mean anything. There is definitely the same kind of pace available in at all the other Peugeots (and that includes the ORECA one), plus there's the fact that you need to complete more than just one flying lap to win at Le Mans. A tricky choice, because Peugeot have very strong lineups in all their cars, but I spotted something in Thursday's early session that made my choice a little easier: I was watching an onboard of Alex Wurz on a flying lap and compared to his teammates he was so much smoother! That along with the proven formula of himself and Gené from last year as well as the way Anthony has managed to become an integral part of the squad, is the reason why the #1 Peugeot is my favourite for overall honours at this year's 24 hours of Le Mans.

Additional thoughts: Audi's only chance of glory will be if they stick to their gameplan, which undoubtedly involves just plugging along at their maximum efficiency along with if something unexpected should happen to the Peugeots. Audi also has a strong lineup in all their cars, not just in the proven formula of McNish/Capello/Kristensen but also in the more experienced Rocky/Bernhard/Dumas and the quick Fässler/Lotterer/Treluyer.

LMP1 petrol: #007 Aston Martin (Primat/Fernandez/Mücke)

As usual, I've got to put in a good word for the petrol-powered prototypes in P1. I've decided to go for the same car I tipped on last year. Aston Martin generally seem to be best of the rest in P1, but one should also keep an eye out for the #6 ORECA squadron should the Astons fall by the wayside. Hopefully I shan't be eating my words at around this time tomorrow when I say that the rest of P1 seem to be miles off!

LMP2: #25 RML (Newton/Erdos/Wallace)

With the lack of any RS Spyders in this year's P2 grid, I'm reverting to my old favourites despite the arrival of the seemingly unbeatable open-top HPD cars. You'd be a fool to bet against Highcroft and Strakka when you look at the pure data and laptimes from practise and qualifing, but again I feel I must stress that this race is a lot longer than just one lap. This will be both Strakka's and Highcroft's first outing at Le Mans in a class, let us not forget, that has historically been plagued with bad reliability. I've got a feeling that if the RML boys can keep the car on the black stuff, then this will finally be their year again.

GT1: #50 Saleen (Berville/Canal/Gardel)

Okay. Are you finished laughing yet? Okay good, let me explain... FIA GT1 standard ECU. Does the Saleen have one? Who's laughing now? Well at the moment it's nobody, but it could be the sole Swiss and two frog drivers of the Saleen come the fall of the checquered flag. Possibly even the three Japanese drivers in their shiny new Lambo? They have already done more laps around Le Mans this week than they have ever done during any race there (this may not be entirely true) so if all the "ECU cars" blow up, the Saleen retires and they actually make it to the finish, they could do it! Having said that, though, the #70 Ford GT did make it all the way through the Nürburgring 24 hours, but I'm going to go for the Saleen just for the random factor. However you cut it, though: GT1 is going to be a race of attrition, and the real excitement will be if the winner of GT1 will finish ahead of the winner of GT2, who is going to be...

GT2: #80 Porsche (Neiman/Law/Bergmeister)

Picking who is going to win GT2 is kinda like shooting a grain of sand with a sniper rifle, blindfolded, while riding an emu, which is running around a carousel. It really is that competitive. I have managed to single out a single car, but I'd be the coolest guy in the world if this actually turned out to be the winner. Especially since my decision is definitely clouded by the fact that I'm quite the Porsche fanboy and would REALLY like to see them reclaim Le Mans from that pesky Risi Ferrari, which is looking as strong as ever this year. You can also never count out the works Corvettes no matter what class it is they find themselves in, which they proved by setting some fast times and which they have proved over the years with their immaculate work in the pits, which as we all know can win or lose a race at Le Mans. Like I said, though, I'm going for Porsche. I just can't help it, but I really do think I'm onto something this year. I'd set my sights early on the #77, as I've put my faith in the Flying Lizards for the past two years only to see them fall by the wayside time after time. The lead Felbermayr Porsche has seemed to be the best germanic car in GT2 if we look at pure statistics in practise and qualifying. But for the same reason I choose Porsche, I'm going to end up with the Flying Lizards once again for top GT2 honours. Following the same logic I used to pick RML for LMP2, I therefore am going to say that the Lizards have more up their sleeve come raceday.

Final thoughts: Don't worry if Peugeot motor into the distance from the get-go, because GT2 is going to be a dogfight until the end. Enjoy the GT1 Lambo while it lasts, especially if we get to see its headlights and flame-spitting exhaust at night, and keep an eye out for the most consistent car in LMP2. This is going to be a good race!

[Aysedasi]

I guess 1 out of 5 is OK........

[EsbenT]

Yeah. I just wish I hadn't swapped Felbermayr (my initial GT2 pick) for the Flying Lizards. I've tipped them three years in a row now and look where it's gotten me, LOL!

I'm giving myself half a point since the winner was a Porsche, though

[Aysedasi]

Tricky this predictions business - I don't think the results in the classes would have been predicted by many......