Season evolution for drivers and teams

[Schummy]

I have done a bit of calculation about who has the momentum and how drivers/teams have gone thru the season so far.

I know all this is a bit "heavy" and possibly boring , but if you are interested in "numbers" go ahead!

(Disclaimer: the author is not responsible of any lesion or malfuction of the brain of the reader as consecuence of reading of this post)

I order to do it, I have done a moving average (exponential, smoothness parameter chosen especifically) with point data of the first seven drivers and the three top teams.

The resulting graphs are too large to be allowed here (although are a small gif file), so I have to put here just the link:

http://summer.phpwebhosting.com/~sta...Statistics2003

The teams graph is nice, showing sucesive Mac, Ferrari and Will domination thru the season. Also it shows as none of the team has really dominate in any part of the season (except for short time).

In drivers graph one can see the early Kimi domination, and Michael bad start, then Michael's resurgence and Kimi's (it's to say MP4-17) gradual decline, and, finally, Williams pair coming to the top. Also one can be Rubens has been quite regular thru the season, and Alonso has been pretty regular too, but with a bit of decline in results.

Just for the sake of fun, I have done a prediction for final positions in this year WC. Current forecast average points for the next GPs (not taking in count it is Hungaroring in particular) is as follows (per GP):

JPM 7.2
MS 5.4
RS 4.3
RB 4.1
KR 3.9
DC 3.8
FA 3.2

JPM has the best momentum, but MS is still second. Luck, as always, has taken part in all this (KR, RS and RB's strat line accident in Hock, DC's good luck just for it, Michael's good/bad luck with that accident and then the tyre...), but that's how points have happened.

Adding those "predicted" points per GP for the last 4 GPs and adding all it to the current points for each driver, we get a posible WC final classification:

JPM 93.7
MS 92.6
KR 77.4
RS 70.0
RB 65.3
FA 56.7
DC 56.2

JPM and MS are heading (if current momentum of form goes on) to one close final classification for WDC. KR, RS and RB would have to resign to fight for third final position, and FA and DC will fight(?) for sixth.

About teams, current points per GP "predictions" are:

Williams 11.4
Ferrari 9.5
McLaren 7.7

And "predicted" final posititions in WC are:

Williams 163.7
Ferrari 157.9
McLaren 133.6

Most of people thinks Williams will get the team championship, but I abide to these data, and I think it will be close with Ferrari.

It is so close in drivers and teams championship that very probably luck will decide who is the winner: weather, track temperature, tyre choice by Michelin/Bridgestobe, mechanical troubles, incidents/accidents,...