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Old 17 Sep 2020, 11:51 (Ref:4003003)   #1
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The 2020 (not as good and late) Annual Le Mans Prediction Thread

This year we are having a light version of the competition. Very simple rules.

The competition is a simple pole and number of laps affair.

1. Predict the fastest lap time from the hyperpole qualifying session.
It's only that session that counts for the lap time - it doesn't matter if someone goes quicker in another session.
Measured to the 0.001s
Just to cover us, it is the fastest overall time in this session irrespective of class or who the ACO actually give pole to.

2. Predict the number of laps for the winner
Total complete laps. i.e. the one after 24h and on the timing sheet.

In honour of the index of performance we shall have a formula for winner.

N=|Entrant prediction - number of laps completed by the winner|
P=|Entract prediction - number of seconds of hyperpole| (in seconds)
(it's the magnitude that matters, not whether you were above or below)

Your score will be
0.24N+P
e.g.
Actual winning time: 3:15.497; Prediction 3:17.000; P=1.503
Actual laps: 385; Prediction 380; N=5
Score: 0.24*5 + 1.503 = 2.703

Lowest score wins.

Please just post the pole time prediction followed by the numper of laps. e.g.
3:27.020
359

That's it no more info is needed in the post. There may be penalties for each additional character

Deadline: The start of hyperpole session. Which i believe is 11:30. 10-10ths post time (or edit time, whichever it later) is the decision on this.

If there is a tie and it involves someone who is French then they shall win.

In true ACO style, if there is any ambiguity or error we shall just make something up later. Judge's (me) decision is final, except you can appeal to the international sporting court of appeal (PascaLM, batmobile, joeb, skycafe, Aysedasi, Bentley03)
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Old 17 Sep 2020, 11:57 (Ref:4003007)   #2
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Summary

1. Predict the hyperpole session fastest lap
2. Predict the number of laps by the winner

Get closer to have more chance of winning.
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Old 17 Sep 2020, 11:57 (Ref:4003008)   #3
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Example Entry

3:27.020
359
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Old 17 Sep 2020, 12:03 (Ref:4003014)   #4
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Lutzvic should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
3:15.746
376 laps
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Old 17 Sep 2020, 13:10 (Ref:4003052)   #5
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gert is going for a new world record!gert is going for a new world record!gert is going for a new world record!gert is going for a new world record!gert is going for a new world record!gert is going for a new world record!gert is going for a new world record!
3.19.666
369 laps
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Old 17 Sep 2020, 13:26 (Ref:4003064)   #6
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Aysedasi is the undisputed Champion of the World!Aysedasi is the undisputed Champion of the World!Aysedasi is the undisputed Champion of the World!Aysedasi is the undisputed Champion of the World!Aysedasi is the undisputed Champion of the World!Aysedasi is the undisputed Champion of the World!Aysedasi is the undisputed Champion of the World!Aysedasi is the undisputed Champion of the World!Aysedasi is the undisputed Champion of the World!Aysedasi is the undisputed Champion of the World!Aysedasi is the undisputed Champion of the World!
3:16.771
382
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Old 17 Sep 2020, 13:33 (Ref:4003070)   #7
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Lasse should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
3:17.261
378
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Old 17 Sep 2020, 14:18 (Ref:4003098)   #8
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Truckosaurus should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridTruckosaurus should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridTruckosaurus should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridTruckosaurus should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
3:18.001

350 laps
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Old 17 Sep 2020, 14:32 (Ref:4003100)   #9
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3.16000
380 laps
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Old 17 Sep 2020, 14:52 (Ref:4003115)   #10
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nasdriv87 should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
3:14.890
383
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Old 17 Sep 2020, 15:00 (Ref:4003118)   #11
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AndyN should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
3:16:385
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Old 17 Sep 2020, 16:38 (Ref:4003163)   #12
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3:15.300
364
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Old 17 Sep 2020, 17:08 (Ref:4003168)   #13
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3:15.222
383
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Old 17 Sep 2020, 17:17 (Ref:4003170)   #14
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3:15.848
374
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Old 17 Sep 2020, 17:29 (Ref:4003173)   #15
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Hawkwood should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridHawkwood should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
3:16.666
375
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Old 17 Sep 2020, 18:49 (Ref:4003209)   #16
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whitemr2 should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridwhitemr2 should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridwhitemr2 should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
3.15.831
359
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Old 18 Sep 2020, 07:28 (Ref:4003364)   #17
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3:14.78
398
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Old 18 Sep 2020, 16:47 (Ref:4003584)   #18
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Thanks for the entries. Good luck everyone

EntrantPole TimeRace laps
Lutzvic3:15.746376
gert3:19.666369
Aysedasi3:16.771382
Lasse3:17.261378
Truckosaurus3:18.001350
GT63:16.000380
nasdriv873:14.890383
AndyN3:16.385367
PascaLM3:15.300364
Adam433:15.222383
joeb3:15.848374
Hawkwood3:16.666375
whitemr23:15.831359
Bentley033:14.780398
Average3:16.312374.1
Std Dev.1.27611.4

There is quite a spread on race lap predictions. The chart shows the predicted laps, the average and the spread.
Attached Thumbnails
Lap predictions.png  
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Old 18 Sep 2020, 16:52 (Ref:4003585)   #19
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Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!
So Hyperpole is done and a fantastic result - PascaLM appropriately leads the competition at this stage of race week.

Here is the leader board after Hyperpole:
EntrantPole Time Laps Behind
Le Mans 20203:15.2670.000-
PascaLM3:15.3000.0330
Adam433:15.2220.0450.05
nasdriv873:14.8900.3771.43
Lutzvic3:15.7460.4791.86
Bentley033:14.7800.4871.89
whitemr23:15.8310.5642.21
joeb3:15.8480.5812.28
GT63:16.0000.7332.92
AndyN3:16.3851.1184.52
Hawkwood3:16.6661.3995.69
Aysedasi3:16.7711.5046.13
Lasse3:17.2611.9948.17
Truckosaurus3:18.0012.73411.25
gert3:19.6664.39918.19
Lap behind is how many laps your prediction needs to be closer than Pascal to overcome his lead (you'll need to round up!)

The chart shows every entry, the average of our predictions and spread, along with the actual pole time.
Attached Thumbnails
Pole predictions and results.png  
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Old 18 Sep 2020, 17:10 (Ref:4003591)   #20
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Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!
How many race laps gets me onto the podium?

Laps1st2nd3rd
< 352whitemr2TruckosaurusPascaLM
352-355whitemr2PascaLMTruckosaurus
356-360whitemr2PascaLMAndyN
361-364PascaLMwhitemr2AndyN
365-366PascaLMAndyNwhitemr2
367-369PascaLMAndyNjoeb
370PascaLMjoebAndyN
371-372joebLutzvicPascaLM
373-374joebLutzvicHawkwood
375-376LutzvicjoebHawkwood
377LutzvicjoebGT6
378LutzvicGT6Adam43
379GT6Adam43Lutzvic
380GT6Adam43nasdriv87
381-388Adam43nasdriv87GT6
> 389Adam43nasdriv87Bentley03
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Old 18 Sep 2020, 17:54 (Ref:4003611)   #21
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GT6 is going for a new world record!GT6 is going for a new world record!GT6 is going for a new world record!GT6 is going for a new world record!GT6 is going for a new world record!GT6 is going for a new world record!GT6 is going for a new world record!
Blimey i have a chance
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Old 18 Sep 2020, 17:56 (Ref:4003612)   #22
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Aysedasi is the undisputed Champion of the World!Aysedasi is the undisputed Champion of the World!Aysedasi is the undisputed Champion of the World!Aysedasi is the undisputed Champion of the World!Aysedasi is the undisputed Champion of the World!Aysedasi is the undisputed Champion of the World!Aysedasi is the undisputed Champion of the World!Aysedasi is the undisputed Champion of the World!Aysedasi is the undisputed Champion of the World!Aysedasi is the undisputed Champion of the World!Aysedasi is the undisputed Champion of the World!
It would seem that I'm a lost cause........
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Old 18 Sep 2020, 18:04 (Ref:4003616)   #23
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Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!
You’re unlucky that even if you nail the laps there are people who were close enough to pole to beat you due to the arbitrary index of performance applied.

However, there is still significant prestige in bagging the number of laps prize. Like PascaLM has with the pole prediction.
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Old 18 Sep 2020, 18:09 (Ref:4003620)   #24
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whitemr2 should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridwhitemr2 should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridwhitemr2 should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
Looking good
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Old 18 Sep 2020, 18:10 (Ref:4003621)   #25
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Truckosaurus should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridTruckosaurus should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridTruckosaurus should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridTruckosaurus should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
I shall be doing an R-Word Dance tonight....
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