[BTCC] BTCC 2020 season discussion, News and Rumours!

[RS67]

Originally Posted by peebee2

And it’s estimated that 80% of the population will eventually be infected.

And out of those, most will have it so mild they won't even be aware they had it.

[S griffin]

Exactly and for the young, fit and healthy, like me, there’s more chance of winning the lottery than dying from this virus. It’s the old and already sick we need to keep an eye on, they are most at risk.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by S griffin

Exactly and for the young, fit and healthy, like me, there’s more chance of winning the lottery than dying from this virus.

How do you reach that conclusion?

The odds of winning the lotto jackpot are about 45m:1.
What are the odds of dying from covid-19? There have been more than 1,000 in Italy from a population of 60m.

[S griffin]

And how many old people are in Italy? Apples and oranges

[mj088]

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...pread-11957350

this could be your answer in a few hours

[redshoes]

Originally Posted by RS67

And out of those, most will have it so mild they won't even be aware they had it.

Mortality rate is circa 2-3%. If 80% of the population become infected that's around 1 million dead.

[fergus_r]

Originally Posted by redshoes

Mortality rate is circa 2-3%. If 80% of the population become infected that's around 1 million dead.

This is the exact point that many people are failing to understand.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by S griffin

And how many old people are in Italy? Apples and oranges

UK:
55-64 years: 12.22%
65 years and over: 18.19%
Population density: 259/km sq
Italy:
55-64 years: 12.99%
65 years and over: 20.2%
Population density: 201/km sq

[MagicBoy]

Originally Posted by redshoes

Mortality rate is circa 2-3%. If 80% of the population become infected that's around 1 million dead.

That's assuming they know about everyone that's been infected and have tested them, which isn't happening in reality.

[S griffin]

Not everyone who has had it has died

[deley]

Not looking good

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-13/...ss-gatherings/

[thetool]

I'd say the first half of the season is probably unlikely to go ahead. Not good news for the circuits that's for sure.

[S griffin]

Let’s just hope these drastic measures work.

[HarryBrown]

Originally Posted by RS67

The fans are adults, no one under the age of 16 can enter without an accompanying adult. They can look after their own well being, they aren't being forced to attend.

WRC is on at the moment. There are music concerts and shows with large numbers in much more confined spaces still continuing at the moment.

By today's figures there is just short of 800 infected in the UK which has a 60 million population. The highest concentration of infected in a county is 22, a county with a population of around 680k. The chances of anyone infected attending a race meeting is minimal. Even if the UK infected number went up to 10k overnight, that is still a very tiny proportion of the population, and only approximately 30k attend each race meeting.

I think it's more the unconfirmed cases people are worried about

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[HarryBrown]

Some footage of the Hyundai out on track, looks pretty quick

https://youtu.be/qfu8sRVMH9Q

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[Moneyseeker]

UK government set to announce ban on large scale public gatherings (believed to be of more than 500 people) from next weekend.

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[Pdh]

Originally Posted by thetool

I'd say the first half of the season is probably unlikely to go ahead. Not good news for the circuits that's for sure.

Not that good for the teams either, no racing means budgets have to be refunded to drivers and sponsors, so means income for the teams go down and then how do the pay staff and overheads

[andy97]

Originally Posted by S griffin

They have the guidance of Motorsport UK and it’s not as simple as just cancelling, they have to look at other things like contracts with circuits

The thing that appears not to have been mentioned so far is that the medical cover for events may be seriously impacted if those personnel are required to work extra hours in their day job at hospitals, GP surgeries, clinics or care homes etc.

Maybe motorsport should be proactive and cancel events to both reduce risk and to release medics back to their day jobs where they can be more useful?

Some rallies in the U.K.have already been cancelled.

[andy97]

Originally Posted by Pdh

Not that good for the teams either, no racing means budgets have to be refunded to drivers and sponsors, so means income for the teams go down and then how do the pay staff and overheads

And not that good for local businesses near circuits. When Donington Park was shut for 2 years recently I know a number of local restaurants, hotels and B&Bs struggled badly.

[redshoes]

Originally Posted by MagicBoy

That's assuming they know about everyone that's been infected and have tested them, which isn't happening in reality.

1 million was based on a 60% infection rate (40m people), which was the figure I had heard earlier. If it's actually 80% as in the post I was replying to, then the number of deaths will be north of a million.

Even if there are more infections that are known about and therefore the death rate is actually less than expected, it's still a lot of people. Would you be any happier with 750,000 deaths?

[MagicBoy]

Originally Posted by redshoes

Would you be any happier with 750,000 deaths?

Really?

My point was the mortality rate numbers are guesstimates as mild cases are less likely be tested. How you deduce that I'd be happy with hundreds of thousands of deaths from that is frankly disturbing.

[Peter Mallett]

Ok folks. This is depressing enough so let's stop trying to be armchair virologists. For info the China stats today are: tot cases 81k. Deaths 3.2k. Recovered 65k. Currently 12k being treated.

Italy: tot cases 17.7k, Deaths 1.3k, Recovered 1.5k. As you can see Italy still has a way to go as far as treatment cases are concerned. Nonetheless by my reckoning that's 4.5% mortality rate. The UK as of today is: Tot cases 800, Deaths 11. We are of course way behind Italy in the number of confirmed infections so I think vigilance is needed. But let's not start hurling accusations about who thinks what. ATM the uk Gov advice is to carry on but if you don't feel safe don't go to events. I know that can mean loss of tickets etc. But it is up to us. Next week we may not have that choice.

So, IMHO the BTCC will follow other major sporting events. That said I don't know if it will make a blind bit of difference. I have elderly relatives and I'm worried about them more than the loss of a few motor races. It's called perspective.

Note: I've rounded up the above figures.

Also note that this is not a criticism ofthe posters here.

[peebee2]

Originally Posted by S griffin

Not everyone who has had it has died

I’m sure that’s an enormous comfort to all those that will die.

[Evantra]

Carrera Cup Media day this Monday will now be run behind closed doors.

On the bright side, currently we have at least a 23 car grid, with 6 Pros and 6 Pro-Ams.

[billy bleach]

Not a Footy fan but for some perspective I reckon Jurgen Klopp got it dead right ....