ALMS Rnd 5: Utah 17-19 May 2007

[jhansen]

Originally Posted by AdamAshmore

This is not the place for a general debate on the usefulness of statistics. At the very least it is tedious and as the above shows sportscar fans don't seem to be very good at discussing that particular topic!

My appologies Adam.

I forget, who won the race?

[prototype]

Hopefully Mazda will get some good testing in during the Le Mans break. However I am sure the Dyson and Penske cars will benefit just as much.

Now that the Mazda car is becoming competitive, I would like to to see them challenge for the last spot on the podium with the slower Acuras and Prosches.

[Fogelhund]

Originally Posted by AdamAshmore

I have a few questions.

How long did the top runners actually spend in the pits?

Adam, the Timing and Scoring information is still available here.

http://www.imsaracing.net/2003/lt/ltc.html

You can see who, spent how much time in the Pits.

[sportscanyltics]

Originally Posted by AdamAshmore

I have a few questions.

How long did the top runners actually spend in the pits?
Which laps are (and aren't) considered for the mean?

What race are we talking about? Houston or Salt Lake? Mainly Salt Lake?

The only statistical analysis I've produced so far is from the Houston round. I included a link above that will answer your question about which laps are and aren't included in the various means.

Furthermore, I don't agree with using the comments of one or two individuals (with at least one who has an agenda) as a generalization of sportscar racing fans' ability to grasp statistics in any form.

[Spyderman]

Originally Posted by sportscanyltics

But when one is talking about lap times in relation to an entry being "quicker", isn't that usually what we're talking about? Time in the pits has nothing to do with the performance of a car, but it can have everything to do with a result of an entry. Sorry I didn't make that clear!

Steady on old chap!
Most of us read and appreciate your analysis.
However, one should never forget that statistics are like bikinis: what they show is suggestive, but what they hide is vital.
My point is only that if you are going to quantify performances (which as far as possible should be an exercise in precision), then one should also be quite precise in describing the outcomes.

Keep up the interesting work.

[Bob Riebe]

Originally Posted by sportscanyltics

If a mean lap time or a variation of a mean is so ridiculous, why is it that the ACO uses the exact same method as a primarily tool for determining performance equivalency? I just think that maybe you're mixing apples and oranges here in what I've written and what you think I'm trying to accomplish.

Good sir:
Do you not realize you are stepping on some toes here and putting to rest the false notion that this is good old fashioned automobile racing?

I used the term "contrived" competition, but perhaps-analytically derived competition- is more acceptable term.
As you said any team with the money is now running the numbers to not only see what speed, mileage, etc. must be attained, but how much money that will cost.
The privateers are in a sort of purgatory, as they cannot afford the money to do any.

In the past, such analytical sorting would not work well, as no one truly knew what the other team had, the rules were loose enough that no one could be pigeon holed in such a manner, but NOW as they know exactly what everyone HAS to do to be legal, one can make very intelligent estimates with computer analysis, so X amount can be the base, and improvements of A, B, C can be figured into the budget to overcome challenges.
The challenge is-is winning cost effctive.

As I believe Foggy said, Audi won P1, Porsche won P2 so no one lost, as there is NO overall race winner anymore, the prize money is set to eliminate such old fashioned practices; therefore as first overall means nothing, the question is, is winning against no opposition cost effective, and at what point is the cost, less than the return.

Ah, I can see the day in the future when world champioships will be won by each factory, after paying the suitable fee, puts its secret numbers in the computer, and the results determing what car company is world champion.

I wonder, can such methods be applied to demolition derbies?

[sportscanyltics]

Originally Posted by Spyderman

Steady on old chap!
Most of us read and appreciate your analysis.
However, one should never forget that statistics are like bikinis: what they show is suggestive, but what they hide is vital.
My point is only that if you are going to quantify performances (which as far as possible should be an exercise in precision), then one should also be quite precise in describing the outcomes.

Keep up the interesting work.

Haha very very true, and hopefully I will be able to get that across when I write!

Honestly, most of the time I'm writing from the same perspective and methods as guys like Mr. Kjos, but I've also decided to try and ground my findings with a little something extra that to this point I think has been largely absent in sportscar racing reporting. It's also a matter of personal preference, and maybe that has something to do with my educational background; the articles I've always found most interesting are those that have gone into more races in-depth while looking at the numbers. For instance, Henri Pescarolo's thoughts on Monza contained in the May edition of Motor Sport magazine was a great read!

I really appreciate having a conversation like this and I respect everyone's opinions on the matter. Hop

[sportscanyltics]

Originally Posted by Bob Riebe

Good sir:
Do you not realize you are stepping on some toes here and putting to rest the false notion that this is good old fashioned automobile racing?

I used the term "contrived" competition, but perhaps-analytically derived competition- is more acceptable term.
As you said any team with the money is now running the numbers to not only see what speed, mileage, etc. must be attained, but how much money that will cost.
The privateers are in a sort of purgatory, as they cannot afford the money to do any.

In the past, such analytical sorting would not work well, as no one truly knew what the other team had, the rules were loose enough that no one could be pigeon holed in such a manner, but NOW as they know exactly what everyone HAS to do to be legal, one can make very intelligent estimates with computer analysis, so X amount can be the base, and improvements of A, B, C can be figured into the budget to overcome challenges.
The challenge is-is winning cost effctive.

As I believe Foggy said, Audi won P1, Porsche won P2 so no one lost, as there is NO overall race winner anymore, the prize money is set to eliminate such old fashioned practices; therefore as first overall means nothing, the question is, is winning against no opposition cost effective, and at what point is the cost, less than the return.

Ah, I can see the day in the future when world champioships will be won by each factory, after paying the suitable fee, puts its secret numbers in the computer, and the results determing what car company is world champion.

I wonder, can such methods be applied to demolition derbies?

I certainly can't argue with the fact that factories have and always will dominate this sport. It's when you get the off privateer challenge to the status-quo or the factory v. factory duels that makes for the best racing (or those random years when a factory team is absent from competition). Projections and estimations are definitely the rule of the day, and I really believe that Weissach have got that aspect down at the moment; wait, they've always been good at that!

To the notion that the overall victory no longer counts for anything, I definitely disagree! Sure the LMP1/LMP2 issue makes the overall victory feel kind of different this year, but I really believe overall wins still count for a lot and it is the most visible 'type' of win (especially when it comes to the all-important marketing of manufacturers).

[Spyderman]

Originally Posted by sportscanyltics

To the notion that the overall victory no longer counts for anything, I definitely disagree! Sure the LMP1/LMP2 issue makes the overall victory feel kind of different this year, but I really believe overall wins still count for a lot and it is the most visible 'type' of win (especially when it comes to the all-important marketing of manufacturers).

I completely agree with you on the importance of the "overall win", and that is why I vehemently disagree with the ACO’s current philosophy behind LMP2.
There seems to be the idea that "class" racing is somehow new (and very sophisticated) to sports car racing.
Those of us that have been following sports car racing (in my case off and on) for many years know that this is nothing new.
It is my humble view that the "smaller" of the prototype classes should reflect a "different" approach to the same goal: Overall Wins!

Now I know that my very obvious support for Porsche damages much of my credibility in this argument (given the current status quo) , but I honestly believe that in order to have a plausible “overall winner”, then he/she must have competed (fairly) against and defeat all similar competition. Not just those in his class.

If artificial barriers are erected to prevent (under normal circumstances) the possibility of a “similar” type of car from obtaining an overall win, then we have corrupted and diminished the value of the “overall win”.

What is even worse is the creation of artificial barriers within the “top” class in order to “manipulate” the outcome of the overall winner.

This to me (and to Bob Riebe I think) is contrived racing and frankly it sucks!

[SebringMG]

It is not particularly contrived if the entrants were reading from the same rule book as the ACO The ACO meant P2 to be for privateers (rightly or wrongly) and the contrivance is the ACO trying to keep certain people from 'spoiling' their rules.

The overall win is still the most important hence why the Tv companies tend to highlight that more and the manufacturers base their advertising around it.

Personally i would prefer P2 to be dropped and the lighter cars battle it out for the same overall win as part of a single prototype class. If you cannot afford the budget well sorry go race in the VdeV series.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by chewymonster

Very much true. Surely Porsche/Acura can make a P1 car as quick as their current P2??? But then they will lose the fuel economy advantage of running a lighter vehicle that is just as quick (but shouldn't for all common sense)

You will never have the perfect car for every track, but IMO, a petrol P1 is the best compromise.

The packaging of diesels will improve in coming years, but ATM they're a handfull on tight tracks, losing out heavily to the best P2's.

Nimble petrol P1's like the Zytek can stick with P2's through the twisty stuff, lose out a little under braking, but pull away on the straights.

The ACO's long term plan is to restrict P2 performance even further, slower than European cars now, so Porsche and Acura will eventually have to step up to P1 if they wish to continue going for race wins, at least in Europe.

You have to think the minute another manufactuer moves upto P1 in the ALMS, P2's will be moved inline with ACO regs and the balance restored.

[Spyderman]

Originally Posted by JAG

You have to think the minute another manufactuer moves upto P1 in the ALMS, P2's will be moved inline with ACO regs and the balance restored.

It seems that the obsession with guaranteeing that diesels win is such, that it is being reported (Mariantic)that the ALMS will be introducing the ACO's 5% restrictor reduction soon!

[Fogelhund]

Originally Posted by sportscanyltics

Furthermore, I don't agree with using the comments of one or two individuals (with at least one who has an agenda) as a generalization of sportscar racing fans' ability to grasp statistics in any form.

I guess the implication being that you have no agenda, and that you have a firmer ability to grasp statistics than others? Frankly, both are laughable arguments.

It is one thing to discuss ideas, and points on a discussion board. It is quite something else when you feel the need to attempt to discredit others, which is most often the tactics used by those desperate in their line of argument, and in need of something to prop themselves up. Perhaps if you are going to mud sling, it would be appropriate in the interest of clarity, just to name the people?

[Fogelhund]

Originally Posted by JAG

The ACO's long term plan is to restrict P2 performance even further, slower than European cars now, so Porsche and Acura will eventually have to step up to P1 if they wish to continue going for race wins, at least in Europe.

You have to think the minute another manufactuer moves upto P1 in the ALMS, P2's will be moved inline with ACO regs and the balance restored.

I hadn't heard anything about the ACO pegging P2's back further at this point, but certainly their 5% restrictor hasn't seemed to do much in Europe either.

Autosport may be reporting that IMSA will adopt the 5% restrictor, but that isn't something the people I talked with in Brasleton today were aware of... not that it won't happen, or hasn't... just saying.

I'm not sure when IMSA will adopt the 5% restrictor for P2, or not. It seems likely, that if the racing continues to be good, (a good show), that the rules will stay stable for now. Given the pace of development of the P2's, just how much of a difference would the 5% restrictor make?

[SebringMG]

I seriosuly doubt the 5% restrictor break will change an awful lot in the ALMS as at utah (high altitude) the Spyder did not seem to struggle too much.

At LM i do not doubt that the R10 is an awesome car, on the racetracks of north america i think the car is inherently flawed (long wheel base and bad weight distribution etc...).

I still think that a P1 RS Spyder could dominate the R10 on the tracks the ALMS races at - while it would lose some of its nimbleness it would gain a heck of a lot of hp!!!! I agree at LM it would still struggle but then the Spyder design is not optimal for that style of circuit!!

[jhansen]

This thread has run its course, as discussion of the race has essentially ceased. The ALMS P1-P2 debate can be discussed here:

http://tentenths.com/forum/showthrea...=86781&page=92

Or here:

http://tentenths.com/forum/showthrea...=94801&page=11

Anyone can feel free to open a thread on the relevance of statistical analysis in sportscar racing if you are so inclined.

And lastly, please leave personal agendas out of the discussion. If you feel it is appropriate, you can contact any of the moderators with any concerns.

Thread closed.