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13 Oct 2012, 16:14 (Ref:3150968) | #26 | |
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I really like this stuff. We should thank Schummy for his work, and it provides a great context for the line-up debate. How about Force India?
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13 Oct 2012, 23:41 (Ref:3151207) | #27 | ||
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I would not like to be "Forced" to do it ;-)
But it would be interesting. |
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19 Oct 2012, 18:33 (Ref:3154479) | #28 | ||
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Code:
========================================================================================== AUS MAL CHI BAH SPA MON CAN EUR GBR GER HUN BEL ITA SIN JAP KOR = TOT lead prb% ========================================================================================== HAM-BUT 100 111 000 111 -01 111 111 110 101 000 111 000 111 100 000 111 = 28-19 (HAM) 76% Advantage VET-WEB 011 000 000 111 111 000 111 100 010 111 111 001 110 111 111 001 = 29-19 (VET) 81% Advantage SCH-ROS 100 111 000 000 000 110 000 001 111 111 000 101 101 100 111 011 = 23-25 (ROS) 11% Similar ALO-MAS 111 111 111 101 111 111 101 111 101 111 111 100 011 111 100 101 = 39- 9 ALO 100% BUSTED! RAI-GRO 011 111 100 001 001 011 010 011 111 111 011 111 --- 011 011 101 = 30-15 RAI 96.4% Almost Busted PER-KOB 000 111 000 101 100 -11 011 011 100 000 111 000 011 101 000 111 = 23-24 (KOB) 00% Equal ========================================================================================== Lotus and Sauber's team mates are extremely close. |
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19 Oct 2012, 18:40 (Ref:3154481) | #29 | |
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Thanks for the update as always Schummy.
It's interesting that Perez is off to McLaren while Kobayashi may be scratching around looking for an F1 drive, despite their close proximity in the stat-based analysis. People talk about the old "lies, damned lies and statistics" thing, but the true lies here are the mistaken perceptions of the teams sometimes. Does Perez deserve a McLaren drive? Perhaps he does. But does Kobayashi deserve to be out of F1? Almost definitely not. Conversely, Raikkonen is almost totally busting Grosjean, but on pace, the maligned Frenchman has been similar. |
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19 Oct 2012, 18:48 (Ref:3154485) | #30 | |
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19 Oct 2012, 19:26 (Ref:3154503) | #31 | ||
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Really, crashing, crashing and crashing doesn't make any good at your results. In this particular set of stats, when one crash early in a race both final result and fastest laps are damaged.
About Perez-Kobayashi, Born Racers's thoughts are acute. Vast different roads ahead for those two barely different drivers. I don't know many drivers who can sub Kamui in a F1 seat. But budget and a non-top team can be a hard combination. Perez can have some advantages, though. He seems strong in tyres and racecraft. He is very young (22 vs 26) and he is a bit less experienced than Koba, so probably he can have a bit more development in next seasons. But IMO, Koba is above the median of the F1 field. It is never going to happen but I would find fascinating a team with Schumacher and Kobayashi, comparison wise. Peter, before you bow out, are you listening? |
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19 Oct 2012, 19:48 (Ref:3154514) | #32 | |
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I too sense that Perez has the better potential, but I feel Kobayashi's been a tad sidelined. That said, Perez has banged in the big results, which is judgement day.
Of course. I guess I just feel that Grosjean has been somewhat ignored after some high profile binnings. His pace vis-a-vis Raikkonen has been sterling. Raikkonen's a formidable driver and Grosjean will come good. Last edited by Born Racer; 19 Oct 2012 at 19:54. |
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26 Oct 2012, 13:01 (Ref:3157979) | #33 | ||
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Median differences between team mates in qualifying.
Code:
VET-WEB 0"11 HAM-BUT 0"30 ALO-MAS 0"35 GRO-RAI 0"06 ROS-MSC 0"02 The team mates are pretty close, except Ferrari and McLaren. Interestingly, the gap ALO-MAS is almost the same as the gap HAM-BUT. Of course, Button has had better races than Massa. Another interesting point is the minimal gap between Grosjean and Kimi, against a popular perception. Minimal gap too in VET-WEB even if there is a perception that Seb is much better qualifier than Mark. |
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26 Oct 2012, 13:17 (Ref:3157988) | #34 | ||
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Ok, ok, I show the rest of teams
Code:
PER-KOB 0"13 MAL-SEN 0"67 DIR-HUL 0"01 RIC-VER 0"24 GLO-PIC 0"35 KOV-PET 0"24 DLR-KAR 0"51
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27 Oct 2012, 13:05 (Ref:3158464) | #35 | |||
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That's so frickin uncool man! |
28 Oct 2012, 00:14 (Ref:3158728) | #36 | ||
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Problem is every driver has a lap time variance, so it's virtually impossible to outqual consistently by 0"1. What we can do is to estimate the average gap between them. Another estimation of the average gap is the relative score, but this loses more information because we don't know by how much one was beaten. Putting it in another way: if one knows the lap times then one can know the score, but if one knows the score then one cannot deduct the lap times. Laptimes have more info than scores,
Anyway, with just 20 or less races (in a season) always there is a degree of uncertainty in the estimation. If a driver's lap times are not skewed around the average (a reasonable approx hypothesis) then the driver with best average has >50% probability of outscoring his rival. Or inversely, a driver who outscore his rival, has a better average with >50% probability. In resume, both stats are directly related. Sorry, all this looks a joke, a bad headache, lol. |
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29 Oct 2012, 01:04 (Ref:3159292) | #37 | ||
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Quote:
Schummy, what happens if you eliminate the largest 2 variances, say for technical issues or sickness, and then do your calculation? |
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2 Nov 2012, 15:18 (Ref:3161600) | #38 | |||
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Quote:
On a side note, I think I remember simulations show it is more fair a WDC where one can drop some bad results. "More fair" in the sense that the best driver has more probability of getting the title. |
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2 Nov 2012, 15:29 (Ref:3161602) | #39 | ||
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Updating after India:
Code:
================================================ AUS MAL CHI BAH SPA MON CAN EUR GBR GER ================================================ HAM-BUT 100 111 000 111 -01 111 111 110 101 000 VET-WEB 011 000 000 111 111 000 111 100 010 111 SCH-ROS 100 111 000 000 000 110 000 001 111 111 ALO-MAS 111 111 111 101 111 111 101 111 101 111 RAI-GRO 011 111 100 001 001 011 010 011 111 111 PER-KOB 000 111 000 101 100 -11 011 011 100 000 ================================================ Code:
================================================ HUN BEL ITA SIN JAP KOR IND = TOT lead prb% ================================================ 111 000 111 100 000 111 101 = 30-20 (HAM) 80% Advantage 111 001 110 111 111 001 111 = 32-19 (VET) 90.8% Almost busted 000 101 101 100 111 011 010 = 24-27 (ROS) 22% Similar 111 100 011 111 100 101 111 = 42- 9 ALO 100% BUSTED! 011 111 --- 011 011 101 111 = 33-15 RAI 98.7% Almost busted 111 000 011 101 000 111 100 = 24-26 (KOB) 11% Similar ================================================ Grosjean bad result is a consequence of his naughty antics in races ;-) . Kobayashi's fate is painful looking at this stat, he is basically doing the same work than Perez, as pointed out by Born Racer. |
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3 Nov 2012, 22:09 (Ref:3162042) | #40 | ||
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6 Nov 2012, 03:07 (Ref:3163159) | #41 | ||
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The geometric mean is the exponential of the mean of the logarithms. It damps the effect of greatest numbers (worst laps) but can amplify the effect of smallest numbers (best laps). Usually is a better alternative than the simple mean when data is positive; it is not usable with no positive data. In this case it cannot be used for gaps; we would have to calculate the gm for driver 1 and for driver 2 and then calculate the gap.
But gm suffer from freakish data (anomalously big or small numbers), anyway. Usually dropping best/worst data is safer. BTW, the square root of the mean of squared data is the quadratic mean. It has the opposite effect to gm, i.e. it amplifies the effect of the greatest numbers (worst laps), with catastrophic results in our case. It would not be calculated with the gaps (a mix of negative and positive numbers plays havoc with it), but separately to each driver's laps. |
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6 Nov 2012, 07:02 (Ref:3163203) | #42 | |||
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That's so frickin uncool man! |
6 Nov 2012, 18:09 (Ref:3163458) | #43 | ||
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It looked so pedantic :'-( :-)
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6 Nov 2012, 23:15 (Ref:3163545) | #44 | ||
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I still think this would all be much more relevant without fastest laps included...
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Blame it on the black star Blame it on the falling sky Blame it on the satellite that beams me home. |
6 Nov 2012, 23:21 (Ref:3163548) | #45 | ||
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Quote:
Often the lower finishing driver sets the fastest lap. This is a Schummy question! |
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7 Nov 2012, 00:01 (Ref:3163560) | #46 | ||
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I include in the table all the info, it is up to each take or drop the parts that seem relevant or not :-) .
Total scores is just a resume, the real info is the matrix itself. Fastest race laps is less meaningful this season because of the combination between not refuelling and tyre composition. Usually drivers care their tyres along the race, except perhaps some laps. FLs are usually done without fuel load, in the last laps, depending on your race situation and tyre age/composition. Anyway, it is not totally meaningless, you still have to be quick without fuel and with your given tyres. It is just less interesting than in other seasons because there are too many irrelevant variables in it. So it gives less info over total performance, there is more "noise" and less "signal". |
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