What if?

DaPix · 17 Mar 2007, 20:39 (Ref:1869458)

What if?
By Dave Pixley

I've been reading tea leaves again. You know. Swish the residue in the cup one way and it looks like something. Swish it again and it looks like something else, totally different. So please take this piece as a figment of an over active imagination. That is all that it is.

We've been hearing since last fall that Graham Rahal is going to drive for Newman/Haas/Lanigan. We all expected his contract to be signed long before this. Paul Newman has been quoted as saying the deal was done weeks ago, but the lawyers are having trouble agreeing on the exact language. There is something unknown to us that is delaying his signing, or at least the announcement of his signing.

In early December we were told that Paul Stoddart was buying into CTE-HVM and might run it as a three or four car team under the Minardi name. Paul had a personal meeting with Kevin Kalkhoven later in December, and since then we've not heard any talk of 3 or 4 cars. Everyone now seems to expect Minardi Team USA to run two cars, but they have not gotten so far as to announce even one driver. There is something unknown to us that is delaying his signing, or at least the announcement of his signing.

Zsolt Baumgartner is the only driver actually acknowledged to be signed by Minardi, but that is only as a Test and Reserve driver. Champ Car teams have never had the luxury of carrying a roster of paid drivers in reserve. We all expect that Baumgartner is going to drive for Minardi, but there is something unknown to us that is delaying the announcement that he will actually race for the team.

Katherine Legge has been testing for Dale Coyne throughout the whole pre-season. Kevin Kalkhoven publicly promised that she would have a ride in Champ Car this year. It is widely believed that Kevin is subsidizing a ride for her with Coyne. It was reported that she had signed with Coyne, but then that was denied. Why? There is something unknown to us that is delaying her signing, or at least the announcement of her signing.

Doesn't it seem strange that seemingly done deals cannot be announced three weeks before the season begins? And isn't it strange that, even with the onslaught of criticism, gloom, and doom leveled by open wheel racing writers including Robin Miller, David Philipps, and John Oreovicz that the deals which will make the difference between the Champ Car season going forward with at least 15-17 cars and outright disaster still are not being announced?

It has been reported that the new race in Zhuhai, China will be moved from May to October, freeing up the entire month of May on the Champ Car schedule. It has also been reported that the Champ Car race in Belgium will be moved from September 9 to August 26, and that was, in fact, announced by the race promoter. Spring Training at Laguna Seca was hyped as being a time for major announcements, but those schedule changes were not announced.

It is pretty clear that the change in the Belgian race date could have been announced. So why didn't that happen? Rather than announcing schedule changes piecemeal Champ Car has shown a preference for doing multiple schedule changes in a single announcement in the past. That would lend credence to the report that the date in China will be changed. Is there a reason for delaying that announcement?

I'll preface the rest of this piece by saying that I'm just an ordinary Champ Car fan. I have no inside knowledge, and the scenario being imagined is most likely not going to happen.

What if there is some Big Deal pending, and all of the above transactions depend on it? Think in terms of sponsors whose support might be contingent on the Big Deal actually happening. No Big Deal, no sponsorship. Or maybe a different level of sponsorship. Think of driver contracts that depend on money from those sponsors. Those contracts can't be completed and signed unless/until the Big Deal is a done deal and is announced.

A year ago Kevin Kalkhoven and Tony George acknowledged that they were continuing to talk and asked to be left alone.

What if Kevin and Tony have reached some kind of agreement to cooperate? That could take many forms. One of those might be to simply arrange for teams that wish to do so to compete in races of the other series. New DP01 chassis could be made available to IRL teams that might want to run Las Vegas, Long Beach or other CCWS races. That would explain the satisfaction expressed by Steve Johnson that Champ Car teams had ordered just 25 new chassis. Perhaps they weren't allowed to order more than that.

What if some of the other 10 chassis in the initial order for 35 chassis have been reserved for additional teams from the IRL (or elsewhere) that might opt to run a few Champ Car races as part of the Big Deal? That might produce a few more entries for some races, and it would explain why Champ Car has taken a hard line about teams finding their own support and not being subsidized. And it would explain the apparent lack of concern about the 15-17 entries on the Champ Car grid that is all that we can see materializing right now.

What if TG arranges access to IRL chassis and engines for Champ Car teams that might wish to run the Indy 500? That would be one explanation of the apparent date change of the race in China from May to October, clearing the way for any Champ Car teams that might wish to run the Indy 500 to do so. It would also explain the delay in announcing the schedule change until the Big Deal is a done deal and is announced (or not).

And none of that is a merger. Just cooperation. The IRL would still be the IRL, running its races. Champ Car would still be Champ Car, running its races. The deadline for entering the Indy 500 this year is April 4. So we should know just how loony these rantings are by then.

I know. I know. There are a lot of us fanatical Champ Car fans who think we don't need anything from the IRL and don't want anything to do with THEM. (And there are IRL partisans who think the same thing about Champ Car.) But we aren't the ones forking out $30M or more of our own money every year to keep the series growing. And we aren't team owners desperately seeking sponsors, and running just one car because we can't afford to run two. And we aren't qualified, capable, popular drivers who are losing their Champ Car opportunity to unknown ride-buyers with family money or sponsor connections in their pocket.

Just a little cooperation might change that whole picture. At least in this hallucination.

Just think about the TV contract. Thirty or more major open wheel races on ABC/ESPN. With a little coordination of the schedule for 2008 there could be a major open wheel race almost every weekend from April through September plus a few in March, October and maybe November (or December?). Fans would love that. So sponsors would love that. Races (or meaningful qualifying at Indy) almost every weekend from Spring through most of the Fall. That might almost take on NASCAR-like properties in terms for fans following open wheel racing every weekend on TV.

Just think of the sponsors that might come out of the woodwork to support major open wheel teams running that collection of races. Still identified as Champ Car or IRL races but with a few of the main teams and drivers crossing over to a few races of the other series.

The Big Deal wouldn't actually have to be a big deal. An agreement to coordinate race schedules and not have conflicting dates would be the main ingredient. The rest of it would be cooperation with teams running races in the other series, and continuing talks on other forms of cooperation in the future. Sort of like when the AFL and the NFL agreed to have their champions meet in one big game each year forty years ago. That worked so well that within 3 years they had become a single organization.

We've seen in the past that TG can talk like he might do something, and then decide not to do it. Sort of like Lucy repeatedly promising Charlie Brown that she will hold the football for him to kick, and then always pulling it away at the last minute.

So the Big Deal, IF there is a Big Deal, and IF it involves TG, depends on TG being willing to go through with it. And we might presently be waiting for him to publicly agree to it. Which he might, or might not do.

Of course there could be a totally different Big Deal that doesn't involve TG, the Indy 500 and IRL teams. Some major sponsor with other conditions to meet. Or there might not be any Big Deal at all. IF it doesn't happen we might never know about it. It was all a figment of the imagination to begin with.

But in that case we are left with the explanation that the lawyers for N/H/L and Graham Rahal really have not been able to reach an agreement. And Minardi has not been able to sign Doornbos yet and really doesn't know whether it will be able to run more than one car. And Dale Coyne isn't able to reach a deal with Katherine Legge despite support from KK (which one of them isn't ready to go forward with that?).

Like I said, I'm just an ordinary Champ Car fan, and I have no inside info. So consider all of the above as just one hypothetical explanation for the questions that are out there. It is likely way off the mark. The fabrication of a demented mind. Fiction.

jonesi · 18 Mar 2007, 06:58 (Ref:1869918)

Occam's razor says, it is probably just the details changing N/H to N/H/L that's holding up the Graham Rahal deal.

indycool · 18 Mar 2007, 11:17 (Ref:1870054)

Dave, I can't see your "Big Deal" on the horizon. Reasons follow:

1) There's been no changes in the IRL schedule or TV since it was announced, so I can't believe anything's happenin' there.
2) We're three weeks before the opener and the CC schedule, as you pointed out, STILL isn't set yet. (Anyone have plane tickets to China?) The reasons given on moving China were to offset expenses with Surfers and give the promoter more time to work on a sponsor, both reasons which were known to CC AND China last fall when the schedule was announced. But it appears CC was trying to jack around with Indy and/or plug a six-week schedule gap, the latter of which they could've done in the first place.
3) The Mazda "official car" announcement -- the biggest part of that deal was to plug some of the hole left in the TV inventory when Ford split. And that acts like the biggest deal that's going to be made for now.
4) How can you MAKE a Big Deal right now? The schedule isn't solid and how would you answer in the Vegas ticket office or PR office if someone asked how many cars would be running and who would be driving them? You need to know those things to make a Big Deal.
5) It's March 16th.

JohnSSC · 18 Mar 2007, 11:27 (Ref:1870067)

Dave, that was one heck of a first post! Welcome to 10-Tenths!

Excellent disection of the situation as it has developed. I have to admit that after a first read, I am not seeing anything that would rule out your hypothesis. Certainly it would explain a lot about why some of these "done deals" are seemingly not yet "done."

Going to have to ponder this as it is quite thought-provoking...

DaPix · 18 Mar 2007, 13:09 (Ref:1870174)

I really don't think there is anything like a Big Deal going on. But I hate thinking about the alternative, namely, that 3 weeks before the season starts the details of signing a 3rd of the field and finalizing the schedule are still undetermined.

We think Rahal will drive for N/H/L but we (and they) can't be sure until they can agree on a contract. Same for Doonbos at Minardi. Same for Legge at Coyne. Somewhere in those negotiations there are details that are preventing the deal from getting done.

And why did Minardi sign Baumgartner as a Test and Reserve driver? Are they really going to run two cars? Is Dan Clarke in the picture for the other seat?

Bobby Rahal was interviewed during the 12 Hours of Sebring telecast and was asked if Graham was going to drive for Newman Haas this year. He said that Kevin Kalkhoven had told him Graham would have a ride in Champ Car and he takes him at his word. Does that mean the KK is personally involved in the contract negotiations between N/H/L and Graham Rahal? Maybe its an intervention.

I guess none of this really has to be resolved until they get to Las Vegas, but Champ Car sure is presenting its current state as chaotic. I hope that actual racing will put all of that behind us.

The May situation has been a thorn in the Champ Car schedule ever since the split. I went to the US 500 on Memorial Day weekend in 1996, and, at the time, I wished that CART would have kept running it. I still think that either Champ Car needs to fill the month of May with racing (at least 2, maybe 3 events) or reach a deal of some kind with Tony George and have no May events of its own. The idea that they will place one event on the May calendar, maybe, or maybe not, just perpetuates the conflict. They should resolve it, one way or the other. Per the piece I wrote that could be done with Champ Car still being Champ Car and having a robust schedule the rest of the season.

norman-normal · 18 Mar 2007, 16:04 (Ref:1870306)

Do we really need another tag team addition?

JohnSSC · 18 Mar 2007, 19:55 (Ref:1870604)

The "US 500" never really did fly, though, did it? For as much as folks try to marginalize the importance of the Indy 500, to the casual fan it is still very much an attention-getter. The multiplicity of approaches by CC and it's predecessor, CART has not helped with the differntiation process either. First, there were alternative races on the same weekend, then it was scheduled around, etc. Now no one seems to know if they are or aren't; should or shouldn't.

Personally, this whole "announcements" thing has turned into a giant game of chicken with the teams trying to force a handout with the owners (KK/GF) trying to not provide one. It would seem that the teams have the upper hand at the moment...

DaPix · 18 Mar 2007, 22:27 (Ref:1870905)

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnSSC

The "US 500" never really did fly, though, did it? For as much as folks try to marginalize the importance of the Indy 500, to the casual fan it is still very much an attention-getter. The multiplicity of approaches by CC and it's predecessor, CART has not helped with the differntiation process either. First, there were alternative races on the same weekend, then it was scheduled around, etc. Now no one seems to know if they are or aren't; should or shouldn't.

Personally, this whole "announcements" thing has turned into a giant game of chicken with the teams trying to force a handout with the owners (KK/GF) trying to not provide one. It would seem that the teams have the upper hand at the moment...

The US 500 was a great singular event in 1996. Something close to 100,000 fans at MIS the same day the Indy 500 with the initial IRL teams ran. But the hearts of CART's owners really were still at the Indy 500, so they decided not to attempt to compete head-on with it. The US 500 in 1996 was the one and only time CART ran a race on the same day as the Indy 500.

But they did schedule a shorter Saturday race on Memorial Day weekend at Gatway, outside of St. Louis, the next three years. They also called the July race at MIS the "US 500" for the next four years, but it wasn't the same thing. By 2000 CART's owners had sold their ownership of CART to an unsuspecting public and were beginning their transistion back to the Indy 500 (Ganassi with two entries that year, three top teams with 7 entries the in 2001).

You are absolutely correct that throughout the period from 1997 until now CART/Champ Car has been ambigious about whether or not they are going to make room in their schedule for their teams to run Indy or simply ignore it and run their own schedule during the month of May. They really need to do one or the other. Rumors are that Champ Car will schedule two races in Europe in May 2008 (France? Greece?). Champ Car has the potential strength to just run its own schedule and continue to build its own fan base without deference (or even reference) to the Indy 500. That is what they really need to do.

You are also right about the game of "chicken" being played between the team owners and the series owners over whether or not there will be subsidies of the teams. My bet is that the owners will cave in this year. IF they do there is a realistic potential for as many as 18 cars in the first couple of races, and a long shot possiblity of as many as 20-22. The long shot is going all the way back to the 10 teams of 2 cars each plus an extra car or two at Minardi that we thought a few months back would happen this year. I think it is too late for that to happen now, but subsidies that support a second car at N/H/L, Coyne, Minardi and Forsythe would get us to 17 cars.

D70s · 19 Mar 2007, 02:16 (Ref:1871025)

For what it's worth Tony George said on Wind Tunnel tonight that KK phoned him and posed a question or suggestion. Tony said he still owes KK a phone call about that. Interesting thing to say.

Of course Tony also said he doesn't Robin Miller, so who can believe him.

JohnSSC · 19 Mar 2007, 09:42 (Ref:1871173)

TG said he dislikes Robin, but does not "hate" him. I am sure Robin is not popular at the CC offices either, which tells me Robin is playing things pretty straight...

So my bottom line is that I do believe KK called and TG wants to call back. No way to know what the question regarded.

climb · 19 Mar 2007, 10:16 (Ref:1871204)

mmmhhh I fear it's no more than wishful thinking.

If TG and KK didn't accomplish anything concrete when there was all the time to do it, why should they succeed now that the season is starting?

D.R.T. · 19 Mar 2007, 12:10 (Ref:1871317)

Quote:

Originally Posted by climb

why should they succeed now that the season is starting?

The best way isn't always the first way

climb · 19 Mar 2007, 13:12 (Ref:1871356)

We all hope you're right D.R.T., but we have to admit odds are not with us.

Snrub · 19 Mar 2007, 14:55 (Ref:1871442)

I have to believe that KK and TG are not stupid enough to believe that a merger isn't needed. They can't come to a agreement, but I suspect that they still talk periodically to try to come up with solutions to the issues that are preventing it. Good to hear TG admit some conversation.

racinthestreets · 19 Mar 2007, 17:23 (Ref:1871546)

Welcome DaPix. That is a great though provoking post. Hmmmm?

boom boom · 19 Mar 2007, 22:59 (Ref:1871832)

I am glad to hear TG and KK are on the phone. Welcome DaPix, Your picture of the facts do make you wonder whats going on, and your theory is very interseting. IT seems like all North American open wheel fans can do is wonder "what If" these days. This offseason has been brutal for me, last year this was goign to be the stepping stone year, but this year is starting off like all the others, how can that be progress. So many stories about how better racing was going to be this year, the possibiltiy of a Merger last year, and now the lackluster offseasons for both series, makes you wonder why are we the only ones who see what works (Merger, or solid schedules early anounced teams, Series owners not having pay drivers) and what doesn't. I got the wife interested in going to vegas this year ( I have a free ticiket voucher that I got in a silent auction for airfare) all we had to do was make Hotel Reservations that are ridiculously high(becasue of Easter) and to buy tickets. I got so tired of all the non signings, and the dont worry we will announce something sometime. That I told the wife I did not want to go to vegas. Dont' they see what bobbling the offseason can do, Iwonder how many other fans were ready to but tickets and did not. Any ways Thank you DaPix, your theory gives me hope again (false or not it is hope). And hearing Tony Gearge has to call his KK back make me a little happy. I just hope they get it throuhg their thick heads this time.

Or that they read this thread and like the Idea of cooperation. That would work so well, make the schedule a little better heck even help buy the other series teams buy chassis or benefits (free parts, whatever). They Run a few of yours and you run a few of theirs, call it cooperation and down play mergeer talks, and doent announce when a IRl tema races CC or vice versa. When more and more teams show up at the other side the press will keep wondering if a merger is soon or who will race next, it would get more coverage for the sponosrs we have and maybe a few would join in easier if they thought merger was possible, but happy enough to comit with that kind of series cooperation. A lot to think about. Welcome again DaPix and thanks for cheering me up kind of

climb · 20 Mar 2007, 07:48 (Ref:1872035)

The good perspectives that a merger coud open have already been largely discussed at 10/10.
The problem is, such an operation takes time: each series boss/team has signed contracts with sponsors, Tv channels etc, some could contain clauses not permitting a merger; it's very hard to make it by these few weeks. Lets' hope something will move about the coming seasons.

JohnSSC · 20 Mar 2007, 09:33 (Ref:1872123)

I guess we will have to see which beta fish ends up belly-up in the aquarium as the current picture is that each is clinging desperately to their own altered version of the truth, as Ollie North once said!

Unfortunately, neither can eliminate the other with an overwhelmingly popular series, so the title of this thread could double for what most open wheel fans think as they watch either series: "What if...?"

climb · 20 Mar 2007, 12:31 (Ref:1872277)

Absolutely right John

JohnSSC · 21 Mar 2007, 01:14 (Ref:1872736)

Thanks, climb!

indycool · 21 Mar 2007, 11:21 (Ref:1873000)

I wouldn't put too much stock in one phone call at this point between TG and KK. If that starts the annual April-May merger talk, there's something wrong with all of us.

Mystery · 21 Mar 2007, 14:38 (Ref:1873127)

Quote:

Originally Posted by indycool

I wouldn't put too much stock in one phone call at this point between TG and KK. If that starts the annual April-May merger talk, there's something wrong with all of us.

Maybe we're all just optimists at heart

DaPix · 21 Mar 2007, 16:22 (Ref:1873149)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mystery

Maybe we're all just optimists at heart

That is certainly true for some of us. I think TG has shown a willingness to talk, and we get encouraged by that. But that is nothing but talk. We may have hoped that KK would lead him to a different position, and KK ceratinly hoped that himself. But my guess is that those talks are going nowhere. TG is just not interested. KK may be learning that the hardway.

However the impetus for this thread was the continued lack of announcements of driver signings, most notably the lack of a contract for Graham Rahal to drive for Newman/Haas/Lanigan. And that is still the case a week later. In that week we've had Paul Stoddart acknowledge in an interview at the Australian GP that Robert Doornbos will drive for Mindardi Team USA, but even that has not been formally announced. Otherwise nothing, just over two weeks from opening practice.

JohnSSC has characterized it as a game of "chicken" between the series owrnes and the team owners over the decision to end subsidies to the individual teams. That is certainly partly correct, but we should look at the reason for that.

Champ Car's owners may have reasoned that the new TV contract would attract more sponsors with more money. But I think that KK may also have been looking for something from TG. This really never was a merger thread. My thought is that a little cooperation, like coordinated scheduling to avoid conflicts, would be a good thing in and of itself. Having major open wheel races on the same broadcast TV network almost every Sunday throughout the spring, summer and most of the fall could be promoted much better by ABC/ESPN than 16 IRL races scattered over 6 months and 16 Champ Car races scattered over 8 months.

It doesn't have to be any more than that. And all it would take to have an effect is to make an announcement now that the schedules will be coordinated in 2008. KK might have been looking for something as simple as that. There doesn't have to be a merger to do that. Certainly there are things that would make coordinated schedules work better, like coordinated equipment, but just the sign that TG was willing to do even one small, reasonable thing to enhance open wheel racing in the U.S. would receive a positive response from sponsors.

KK may have been hoping for something as simple as that. But the more time that passes the less likely it is. Maybe by now TG has returned the phone call. Maybe he didn't say no. He just never says yes.

The bottom line is that KK is going to have to do whatever it takes to complete the deal between Rahal and N/H/L. That may mean another year of subsidies of some kind. But Rahal is a key ingredient in attracting larger TV audiences for Champ Car on ABC/ESPN this season. KK has to make that happen.

deadsquirrel · 21 Mar 2007, 18:47 (Ref:1873223)

Please be gentle - I'm new to the champCar forum, I'm a regular in the marshals forum...
I'm going out to Vegas in a couple of weeks to see my first Champ Car street event (I've been to see them in UK in 2001), and I must admit that I had no incling (my fault) that CCWS was in such a mess until I read this thread. I for one am crossing everything that deals are done and we see 18+ cars on the grid.

Can I also add how informative, level headed discussion is in here - I hope to stick around

indycool · 21 Mar 2007, 19:09 (Ref:1873248)

Good luck out there, DS.......hope it's a better time than some of us are grumping about.